MLS Slate Analysis — Wednesday, October 14, 2026

Wednesday, October 14, 2026 · MLS

These matches have been played. Picks and prices, where shown, are AiQ's from before each match started. See how they finished in the MLS recaps.

The MLS slate for Wednesday, October 14, 2026 has 15 matchs, the first at 6:30 PM CT. AiQ has a moneyline pick on all 15. Of AiQ's picks on this slate, 7 have a price on record above fair value. Each price is the one AiQ valued the pick at when it last priced the game.

Best value

• Vancouver Whitecaps vs St. Louis CITY SC: Over 3.5 goals (+123 at BetRivers, +1.5% value).
• Charlotte FC vs Columbus Crew: Over 3.5 goals (-105 at BetRivers, +1.4% value).
• Minnesota United FC vs Colorado Rapids: Colorado Rapids on the moneyline (-114 at BetRivers, +1.3% value).
• Philadelphia Union vs Chicago Fire FC: Over 3.5 goals (+104 at BetRivers, +0.9% value).
• Portland Timbers vs LA Galaxy: Draw on the moneyline (+300 at Fanatics, +0.7% value).
• Orlando City SC vs Toronto FC: Orlando City SC on the moneyline (+185 at BetRivers, +0.7% value).
• Atlanta United FC vs CF Montréal: Atlanta United FC on the moneyline (+185 at FanDuel, +0.6% value).

Every match

Orlando City SC vs Toronto FC

6:30 PM CT at BMO Field.

Orlando City SC have won 11, drawn 4 and lost 13 of their 28 matches this season, winning three of the last five. Toronto FC have won 7, drawn 11 and lost 10 of their 28 matches this season, winning two of the last five. When these teams last met, on September 12, 2026, Orlando City SC won 3-0 at home. This is their second meeting this season.

• Moneyline: AiQ gives Orlando City SC a 56% confidence rating to beat Toronto FC, its own model's number rather than a market price. Calibrated against the market and graded results, that is a 35.3% chance; the betting market, with the margin removed, has 34.3%. The best price, +185 at BetRivers, is +0.7% value against the fair price of +183.
• Total goals: AiQ gives the over 3.5 goals a 60% confidence rating, its own model's number rather than a market price. Calibrated against the market and graded results, that is a 52.4% chance; the betting market, with the margin removed, has 50.3%. The best price, -110 at BetRivers, is priced near the fair price of -110 (−0.0% value).

Trends in play.

Everything points over on the total. Orlando City SC went over the total in 11 of 13 road matches this season. Toronto FC went over the total in 10 of 14 home matches this season.

New York City FC vs Inter Miami CF

6:30 PM CT at Nu Stadium.

New York City FC have won 8, drawn 9 and lost 11 of their 28 matches this season, winning one of the last five. Inter Miami CF have won 13, drawn 10 and lost 5 of their 28 matches this season, winning one of the last five. When these teams last met, on March 22, 2026, Inter Miami CF won 3-2 on the road. This is their second meeting this season.

• Moneyline: AiQ gives Inter Miami CF a 58% confidence rating to beat New York City FC, its own model's number rather than a market price. Calibrated against the market and graded results, that is a 65.0% chance; the betting market, with the margin removed, has 65.3%. The best price, -190 at BetRivers, is priced below the fair price of -185 (−0.9% value).
• Total goals: AiQ gives the under 3.5 goals a 58% confidence rating, its own model's number rather than a market price. Calibrated against the market and graded results, that is a 54.8% chance; the betting market, with the margin removed, has 54.0%. The best price, -125 at BetRivers, is priced below the fair price of -121 (−1.3% value).

Trends in play.

Recent totals lean under. New York City FC went under the total in 9 of 12 road matches this season.

New England Revolution vs FC Cincinnati

6:30 PM CT at TQL Stadium.

New England Revolution have won 14, drawn 4 and lost 10 of their 28 matches this season, winning three of the last five. FC Cincinnati have won 9, drawn 9 and lost 9 of their 27 matches this season, winning one of the last five. When these teams last met, on March 15, 2026, New England Revolution won 6-1 at home. This is their second meeting this season.

• Moneyline: AiQ gives FC Cincinnati a 53% confidence rating to beat New England Revolution, its own model's number rather than a market price. Calibrated against the market and graded results, that is a 52.0% chance; the betting market, with the margin removed, has 52.0%. The best price, -115 at Fanatics, is priced below the fair price of -108 (−2.9% value).
• Total goals: AiQ gives the over 3.5 goals a 54% confidence rating, its own model's number rather than a market price. Calibrated against the market and graded results, that is a 52.0% chance; the betting market, with the margin removed, has 51.4%. The best price, -120 at BetRivers, is priced below the fair price of -108 (−4.7% value).

Red Bull New York vs D.C. United

6:30 PM CT at Audi Field.

Red Bull New York have won 10, drawn 6 and lost 12 of their 28 matches this season, winning three of the last five. D.C. United have won 6, drawn 12 and lost 9 of their 27 matches this season, winning one of the last five. When these teams last met, on April 22, 2026, they drew 4-4. This is their second meeting this season.

• Moneyline: AiQ gives a draw between Red Bull New York and D.C. United a 57% confidence rating, its own model's number rather than a market price. Calibrated against the market and graded results, that is a 25.5% chance; the betting market, with the margin removed, has 23.9%. The best price, +285 at Caesars, is priced below the fair price of +292 (−1.7% value).
• Total goals: AiQ gives the under 3.5 goals a 60% confidence rating, its own model's number rather than a market price. Calibrated against the market and graded results, that is a 56.3% chance; the betting market, with the margin removed, has 55.3%. The best price, -140 at BetMGM, is priced below the fair price of -129 (−3.5% value).

Trends in play.

Recent totals lean under. Red Bull New York went under the total in 8 of their last 10 matches.

Atlanta United FC vs CF Montréal

6:30 PM CT at Stade Saputo.

Atlanta United FC have won 7, drawn 6 and lost 15 of their 28 matches this season, winning one of the last five. CF Montréal have won 6, drawn 6 and lost 16 of their 28 matches this season, winning one of the last five. When these teams last met, on May 2, 2026, Atlanta United FC won 3-1 at home. This is their second meeting this season.

• Moneyline: AiQ gives Atlanta United FC a 56% confidence rating to beat CF Montréal, its own model's number rather than a market price. Calibrated against the market and graded results, that is a 35.3% chance; the betting market, with the margin removed, has 34.2%. The best price, +185 at FanDuel, is +0.6% value against the fair price of +183.
• Total goals: AiQ gives the under 3.5 goals a 58% confidence rating, its own model's number rather than a market price. Calibrated against the market and graded results, that is a 59.3% chance; the betting market, with the margin removed, has 59.7%. The price on record, -167, is priced below the fair price of -146 (−5.2% value).

Charlotte FC vs Columbus Crew

6:30 PM CT at ScottsMiracle-Gro Field.

Charlotte FC have won 13, drawn 7 and lost 8 of their 28 matches this season, winning three of the last five. Columbus Crew have won 8, drawn 5 and lost 15 of their 28 matches this season, winning two of the last five. When these teams last met, on August 15, 2026, Charlotte FC won 3-1 at home. This is their second meeting this season.

• Moneyline: AiQ gives Charlotte FC a 58% confidence rating to beat Columbus Crew, its own model's number rather than a market price. Calibrated against the market and graded results, that is a 29.9% chance; the betting market, with the margin removed, has 28.5%. The best price, +235 at BetRivers, is priced near the fair price of +234 (+0.2% value).
• Total goals: AiQ gives the over 3.5 goals a 62% confidence rating, its own model's number rather than a market price. Calibrated against the market and graded results, that is a 51.9% chance; the betting market, with the margin removed, has 49.3%. The best price, -105 at BetRivers, is +1.4% value against the fair price of -108.

Trends in play.

Recent totals lean over. Columbus Crew went over the total in 7 of their last 10 matches.

Sporting Kansas City vs Nashville SC

7:30 PM CT at GEODIS Park.

Nashville SC have won 19, drawn 6 and lost 3 of their 28 matches this season, winning the last three. Sporting Kansas City have won 6, drawn 4 and lost 18 of their 28 matches this season, winning two of the last five.

• Moneyline: AiQ gives Nashville SC a 60% confidence rating to beat Sporting Kansas City, its own model's number rather than a market price. Calibrated against the market and graded results, that is an 83.5% chance; the betting market, with the margin removed, has 84.7%. The best price, -560 at BetRivers, is priced below the fair price of -506 (−1.6% value).
• Total goals: AiQ gives the over 3.5 goals a 56% confidence rating, its own model's number rather than a market price. Calibrated against the market and graded results, that is a 54.7% chance; the betting market, with the margin removed, has 54.4%. The best price, -140 at BetMGM, is priced below the fair price of -121 (−6.2% value).

Trends in play.

Recent totals lean over. Nashville SC went over the total in 10 of 13 home matches this season.

Seattle Sounders FC vs FC Dallas

7:30 PM CT at Toyota Stadium.

Seattle Sounders FC have won 11, drawn 8 and lost 9 of their 28 matches this season, winning the last four. FC Dallas have won 13, drawn 8 and lost 7 of their 28 matches this season, winning three of the last five. When these teams last met, on April 25, 2026, Seattle Sounders FC won 2-1 at home. This is their second meeting this season.

• Moneyline: AiQ gives a draw between Seattle Sounders FC and FC Dallas a 54% confidence rating, its own model's number rather than a market price. Calibrated against the market and graded results, that is a 25.1% chance; the betting market, with the margin removed, has 23.6%. The best price, +300 at Fanatics, is priced near the fair price of +299 (+0.3% value).
• Total goals: AiQ gives the over 3.5 goals a 55% confidence rating, its own model's number rather than a market price. Calibrated against the market and graded results, that is a 43.5% chance; the betting market, with the margin removed, has 40.5%. The best price, +125 at BetRivers, is priced below the fair price of +130 (−2.1% value).

Trends in play.

Recent totals lean under. Seattle Sounders FC went under the total in 10 of 13 road matches this season.

Vancouver Whitecaps vs St. Louis CITY SC

7:30 PM CT at Energizer Park.

St. Louis CITY SC have won 14, drawn 8 and lost 6 of their 28 matches this season, winning the last four. Vancouver Whitecaps have won 15, drawn 6 and lost 7 of their 28 matches this season, winning one of the last five. When these teams last met, on September 5, 2026, St. Louis CITY SC won 3-1 on the road. This is their second meeting this season.

• Moneyline: AiQ gives St. Louis CITY SC a 58% confidence rating to beat Vancouver Whitecaps, its own model's number rather than a market price. Calibrated against the market and graded results, that is a 42.6% chance; the betting market, with the margin removed, has 41.8%. The best price, +130 at FanDuel, is priced below the fair price of +135 (−2.0% value).
• Total goals: AiQ gives the over 3.5 goals a 58% confidence rating, its own model's number rather than a market price. Calibrated against the market and graded results, that is a 45.5% chance; the betting market, with the margin removed, has 42.2%. The best price, +123 at BetRivers, is +1.5% value against the fair price of +120.

Trends in play.

The total pulls both ways. Vancouver Whitecaps went under the total in 8 of their last 10 matches. Meanwhile, St. Louis CITY SC went over the total in 7 of their last 10 matches.

Philadelphia Union vs Chicago Fire FC

7:30 PM CT at Soldier Field.

Philadelphia Union have won 12, drawn 6 and lost 10 of their 28 matches this season, winning the last seven. Chicago Fire FC have won 14, drawn 6 and lost 8 of their 28 matches this season, winning the last three. When these teams last met, on March 21, 2026, Chicago Fire FC won 2-1 on the road. This is their second meeting this season.

• Moneyline: AiQ gives Philadelphia Union a 58% confidence rating to beat Chicago Fire FC, its own model's number rather than a market price. Calibrated against the market and graded results, that is a 39.2% chance; the betting market, with the margin removed, has 38.2%. The best price, +155 at BetRivers, is priced near the fair price of +155 (−0.0% value).
• Total goals: AiQ gives the over 3.5 goals a 58% confidence rating, its own model's number rather than a market price. Calibrated against the market and graded results, that is a 49.5% chance; the betting market, with the margin removed, has 47.2%. The best price, +104 at BetRivers, is +0.9% value against the fair price of +102.

Trends in play.

The total pulls both ways. Philadelphia Union went over the total in 11 of 14 road matches this season. Meanwhile, Chicago Fire FC went under the total in 7 of their last 10 matches.

San Jose Earthquakes vs Real Salt Lake

8:30 PM CT at America First Field.

San Jose Earthquakes have won 13, drawn 7 and lost 8 of their 28 matches this season, winning three of the last five. Real Salt Lake have won 9, drawn 5 and lost 14 of their 28 matches this season, winning one of the last five.

• Moneyline: AiQ gives a draw between San Jose Earthquakes and Real Salt Lake a 56% confidence rating, its own model's number rather than a market price. Calibrated against the market and graded results, that is a 24.9% chance; the betting market, with the margin removed, has 23.3%. The best price, +300 at Fanatics, is priced near the fair price of +302 (−0.5% value).
• Total goals: AiQ gives the under 3.5 goals a 54% confidence rating, its own model's number rather than a market price. Calibrated against the market and graded results, that is a 56.3% chance; the betting market, with the margin removed, has 56.9%. The best price, -137 at BetRivers, is priced below the fair price of -129 (−2.7% value).

Trends in play.

Recent totals lean under. Real Salt Lake went under the total in 7 of their last 10 matches.

Minnesota United FC vs Colorado Rapids

8:30 PM CT at Dick's Sporting Goods Park.

Minnesota United FC have won 7, drawn 9 and lost 12 of their 28 matches this season, without a win in the last five. Colorado Rapids have won 11, drawn 4 and lost 13 of their 28 matches this season, winning one of the last five. When these teams last met, on May 13, 2026, Colorado Rapids won 1-0 on the road. This is their second meeting this season.

• Moneyline: AiQ gives Colorado Rapids a 57% confidence rating to beat Minnesota United FC, its own model's number rather than a market price. Calibrated against the market and graded results, that is a 54.0% chance; the betting market, with the margin removed, has 53.8%. The best price, -114 at BetRivers, is +1.3% value against the fair price of -117.
• Total goals: AiQ gives the over 2.5 goals a 60% confidence rating, its own model's number rather than a market price. Calibrated against the market and graded results, that is a 58.8% chance; the betting market, with the margin removed, has 58.5%. The best price, -160 at BetMGM, is priced below the fair price of -143 (−4.4% value).

Trends in play.

The total pulls both ways. Minnesota United FC went over the total in 10 of 13 road matches this season. Meanwhile, Colorado Rapids went under the total in 7 of their last 10 matches.

Houston Dynamo FC vs San Diego FC

9:30 PM CT at Snapdragon Stadium.

Houston Dynamo FC have won 13, drawn 6 and lost 9 of their 28 matches this season, winning one of the last five. San Diego FC have won 8, drawn 8 and lost 12 of their 28 matches this season, without a win in the last five. When these teams last met, on April 22, 2026, Houston Dynamo FC won 1-0 at home. This is their second meeting this season.

• Moneyline: AiQ gives San Diego FC a 56% confidence rating to beat Houston Dynamo FC, its own model's number rather than a market price. Calibrated against the market and graded results, that is a 47.6% chance; the betting market, with the margin removed, has 47.2%. The best price, +110 at Fanatics, is priced near the fair price of +110 (−0.0% value).
• Total goals: AiQ gives the over 2.5 goals a 58% confidence rating, its own model's number rather than a market price. Calibrated against the market and graded results, that is a 57.9% chance; the betting market, with the margin removed, has 57.8%. The best price, -159 at BetRivers, is priced below the fair price of -137 (−5.7% value).

Trends in play.

The total pulls both ways. San Diego FC went over the total in 11 of 14 home matches this season. Meanwhile, Houston Dynamo FC went under the total in 7 of their last 10 matches.

Austin FC vs Los Angeles FC

9:30 PM CT at BMO Stadium.

Austin FC have won 7, drawn 10 and lost 11 of their 28 matches this season, winning one of the last five. Los Angeles FC have won 11, drawn 9 and lost 9 of their 29 matches this season, winning one of the last five. When these teams last met, on March 21, 2026, they drew 0-0. This is their second meeting this season.

Matchups to watch.

• An uphill climb in scoring. Austin FC averaged 1.29 goals per match this season, tied for the 4th fewest in Major League Soccer, and Los Angeles FC conceded 1.07 goals per match, the 3rd fewest.

• Moneyline: AiQ gives a draw between Austin FC and LAFC a 56% confidence rating, its own model's number rather than a market price. Calibrated against the market and graded results, that is an 18.8% chance; the betting market, with the margin removed, has 16.8%. The best price, +425 at Fanatics, is priced below the fair price of +433 (−1.5% value).
• Total goals: AiQ gives the under 3.5 goals a 58% confidence rating, its own model's number rather than a market price. Calibrated against the market and graded results, that is a 58.4% chance; the betting market, with the margin removed, has 58.5%. The best price, -160 at BetMGM, is priced below the fair price of -140 (−5.1% value).

Trends in play.

Recent totals lean over. Austin FC went over the total in 10 of 14 road matches this season.

Portland Timbers vs LA Galaxy

9:30 PM CT at Dignity Health Sports Park.

Portland Timbers have won 9, drawn 6 and lost 13 of their 28 matches this season, without a win in the last five. LA Galaxy have won 9, drawn 9 and lost 11 of their 29 matches this season, winning two of the last five. When these teams last met, on March 22, 2026, they drew 1-1. This is their second meeting this season.

Matchups to watch.

• Weakness against weakness in scoring. LA Galaxy averaged 1.34 goals per match this season, tied for the 8th fewest in Major League Soccer, and Portland Timbers conceded 1.93 goals per match, the 5th most.

• Moneyline: AiQ gives a draw between Portland Timbers and LA Galaxy a 56% confidence rating, its own model's number rather than a market price. Calibrated against the market and graded results, that is a 25.2% chance; the betting market, with the margin removed, has 23.6%. The best price, +300 at Fanatics, is +0.7% value against the fair price of +297.
• Total goals: AiQ gives the under 3.5 goals a 54% confidence rating, its own model's number rather than a market price. Calibrated against the market and graded results, that is a 52.2% chance; the betting market, with the margin removed, has 51.7%. The best price, -117 at BetRivers, is priced below the fair price of -109 (−3.3% value).

Trends in play.

Everything points under on the total. LA Galaxy went under the total in 10 of 13 home matches this season. Portland Timbers went under the total in 7 of their last 10 matches.

These come from the closing lines of this season and last. They are context, not the reason for AiQ's picks, and the books price them in.

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