MLS Slate Analysis — Saturday, November 7, 2026

Saturday, November 7, 2026 · MLS

The MLS slate for Saturday, November 7, 2026 has 15 matchs, the first at 3:00 PM CT. AiQ has a moneyline pick on 12 of them. For 3 of them, no AiQ pick priced before the start is on record, so they are listed without picks. None of AiQ's picks on this slate has a price on record above fair value. Each price is the one AiQ valued the pick at when it last priced the game.

Every match

Vancouver Whitecaps vs CF Montréal

3:00 PM CT at Stade Saputo.

Vancouver Whitecaps have won 18, drawn 7 and lost 8 of their 33 matches this season, winning three of the last five. CF Montréal have won 6, drawn 8 and lost 19 of their 33 matches this season, without a win in the last five.

Matchups to watch.

• Mismatch in scoring. Vancouver Whitecaps averaged 2.18 goals per match this season, the 2nd most in Major League Soccer, and CF Montréal conceded 2.03 goals per match, the 4th most.
• An uphill climb in scoring. CF Montréal averaged 1.12 goals per match this season, the fewest in Major League Soccer, and Vancouver Whitecaps conceded 1.03 goals per match, the 2nd fewest.

• Moneyline: AiQ gives Vancouver Whitecaps a 58% confidence rating to beat CF Montréal, its own model's number rather than a market price. Calibrated against the market and graded results, that is a 58.3% chance; the betting market, with the margin removed, has 58.3%. The best price, -150 at BetMGM, is priced below the fair price of -140 (−2.8% value).
• Total goals: AiQ gives the under 3.5 goals a 54% confidence rating, its own model's number rather than a market price. Calibrated against the market and graded results, that is a 55.3% chance; the betting market, with the margin removed, has 55.4%. The best price, -137 at BetRivers, is priced below the fair price of -124 (−4.3% value).

Trends in play.

Recent totals lean under. Vancouver Whitecaps went under the total in 8 of their last 10 matches.

Columbus Crew vs Chicago Fire FC

3:00 PM CT at SeatGeek Stadium.

Columbus Crew have won 13, drawn 5 and lost 15 of their 33 matches this season, winning the last five. Chicago Fire FC have won 16, drawn 7 and lost 10 of their 33 matches this season, winning two of the last five. When these teams last met, on March 7, 2026, they drew 0-0. This is their second meeting this season.

Matchups to watch.

• Strength against strength in shots. Chicago Fire FC averaged 14.5 shots per match this season, the 6th most in Major League Soccer, and Columbus Crew faced 11.6 shots per match, tied for the 4th fewest.

• Moneyline: AiQ gives a draw between Columbus Crew and Chicago Fire FC a 56% confidence rating, its own model's number rather than a market price. Calibrated against the market and graded results, that is a 23.6% chance; the betting market, with the margin removed, has 23.5%. The best price, +300 at FanDuel, is priced below the fair price of +323 (−5.5% value).
• Total goals: AiQ gives the over 3.5 goals a 56% confidence rating, its own model's number rather than a market price. Calibrated against the market and graded results, that is a 45.1% chance; the betting market, with the margin removed, has 44.3%. The best price, +110 at BetMGM, is priced below the fair price of +122 (−5.3% value).

Trends in play.

The total pulls both ways. Columbus Crew went over the total in 11 of 13 road matches this season. Meanwhile, Chicago Fire FC went under the total in 7 of their last 10 matches.

New York City FC vs D.C. United

3:00 PM CT at Audi Field.

D.C. United have won 7, drawn 12 and lost 14 of their 33 matches this season, losing the last five. New York City FC have won 9, drawn 12 and lost 12 of their 33 matches this season, winning one of the last five. When these teams last met, on May 3, 2026, D.C. United won 2-0 on the road. This is their second meeting this season.

Matchups to watch.

• Weakness against weakness in shots. New York City FC averaged 11.8 shots per match this season, the 4th fewest in Major League Soccer, and D.C. United faced 14.2 shots per match, the 7th most.
• An uphill climb in scoring. D.C. United averaged 1.18 goals per match this season, tied for the 2nd fewest in Major League Soccer, and New York City FC conceded 1.36 goals per match, tied for the 5th fewest.

• Moneyline: AiQ gives a draw between New York City FC and D.C. United a 56% confidence rating, its own model's number rather than a market price. Calibrated against the market and graded results, that is a 26.1% chance; the betting market, with the margin removed, has 26.0%. The best price, +265 at BetRivers, is priced below the fair price of +283 (−4.6% value).
• Total goals: AiQ gives the under 2.5 goals a 54% confidence rating, its own model's number rather than a market price. Calibrated against the market and graded results, that is a 41.9% chance; the betting market, with the margin removed, has 41.0%. The best price, +130 at BetRivers, is priced below the fair price of +139 (−3.7% value).

Trends in play.

Recent totals lean under. New York City FC went under the total in 9 of 12 road matches this season.

Nashville SC vs FC Cincinnati

3:00 PM CT at TQL Stadium.

Nashville SC have won 22, drawn 8 and lost 3 of their 33 matches this season, winning three of the last five. FC Cincinnati have won 12, drawn 10 and lost 11 of their 33 matches this season, winning three of the last five. When these teams last met, on August 29, 2026, Nashville SC won 4-0 at home. This is their second meeting this season.

Matchups to watch.

• Mismatch in scoring. Nashville SC averaged 2.09 goals per match this season, the 3rd most in Major League Soccer, and FC Cincinnati conceded 2.21 goals per match, the 3rd most.
• Strength against strength in scoring. FC Cincinnati averaged 2.03 goals per match this season, the 4th most in Major League Soccer, and Nashville SC conceded 0.76 goals per match, the fewest.

• Moneyline: AiQ gives Nashville SC a 58% confidence rating to beat FC Cincinnati, its own model's number rather than a market price. Calibrated against the market and graded results, that is a 38.9% chance; the betting market, with the margin removed, has 38.8%. The best price, +145 at BetRivers, is priced below the fair price of +157 (−4.6% value).
• Total goals: AiQ gives the under 3.5 goals a 52% confidence rating, its own model's number rather than a market price. Calibrated against the market and graded results, that is a 56.4% chance; the betting market, with the margin removed, has 56.4%. The best price, -132 at BetRivers, is priced below the fair price of -129 (−0.9% value).

Charlotte FC vs Inter Miami CF

3:00 PM CT at Nu Stadium.

Charlotte FC have won 15, drawn 8 and lost 10 of their 33 matches this season, winning two of the last five. Inter Miami CF have won 16, drawn 11 and lost 6 of their 33 matches this season, winning three of the last five. When these teams last met, on March 14, 2026, they drew 0-0. This is their second meeting this season.

Matchups to watch.

• Mismatch in shots. Inter Miami CF averaged 14.8 shots per match this season, tied for the 3rd most in Major League Soccer, and Charlotte FC faced 17.1 shots per match, tied for the most.

• Moneyline: AiQ gives Inter Miami CF a 56% confidence rating to beat Charlotte FC, its own model's number rather than a market price. Calibrated against the market and graded results, that is a 70.1% chance; the betting market, with the margin removed, has 70.2%. The best price, -250 at BetMGM, is priced below the fair price of -235 (−1.8% value).
• Total goals: AiQ gives the under 4.5 goals a 56% confidence rating, its own model's number rather than a market price. Calibrated against the market and graded results, that is a 57.8% chance; the betting market, with the margin removed, has 57.9%. The price on record, -155, is priced below the fair price of -137 (−5.0% value).

Atlanta United FC vs Red Bull New York

3:00 PM CT at Sports Illustrated Stadium.

Atlanta United FC have won 9, drawn 6 and lost 18 of their 33 matches this season, winning two of the last five. Red Bull New York have won 11, drawn 6 and lost 16 of their 33 matches this season, winning one of the last five. When these teams last met, on August 15, 2026, Atlanta United FC won 2-1 at home. This is their second meeting this season.

Matchups to watch.

• Weakness against weakness in scoring. Atlanta United FC averaged 1.30 goals per match this season, tied for the 6th fewest in Major League Soccer, and Red Bull New York conceded 1.88 goals per match, tied for the 7th most.
• Strength against strength in shots. Red Bull New York averaged 14.3 shots per match this season, the 8th most in Major League Soccer, and Atlanta United FC faced 12.1 shots per match, the 7th fewest.

• Moneyline: AiQ gives a draw between Atlanta United FC and Red Bull New York a 56% confidence rating, its own model's number rather than a market price. Calibrated against the market and graded results, that is a 21.8% chance; the betting market, with the margin removed, has 21.7%. The best price, +320 at FanDuel, is priced below the fair price of +358 (−8.3% value).
• Total goals: AiQ gives the under 3.5 goals a 52% confidence rating, its own model's number rather than a market price. Calibrated against the market and graded results, that is a 48.6% chance; the betting market, with the margin removed, has 48.6%. The best price, -108 at BetRivers, is priced below the fair price of +106 (−6.4% value).

Trends in play.

Recent totals lean under. Red Bull New York went under the total in 8 of their last 10 matches.

New England Revolution vs Orlando City SC

3:00 PM CT at Inter&Co Stadium.

New England Revolution have won 18, drawn 4 and lost 11 of their 33 matches this season, winning four of the last five. Orlando City SC have won 12, drawn 7 and lost 14 of their 33 matches this season, winning one of the last five. When these teams last met, on September 19, 2026, New England Revolution won 4-2 at home. This is their second meeting this season.

Matchups to watch.

• Weakness against weakness in shots. New England Revolution averaged 12.2 shots per match this season, tied for the 5th fewest in Major League Soccer, and Orlando City SC faced 17.1 shots per match, tied for the most.
• Strength against strength in scoring. Orlando City SC averaged 1.88 goals per match this season, tied for the 6th most in Major League Soccer, and New England Revolution conceded 1.39 goals per match, the 7th fewest.

• Moneyline: AiQ gives New England Revolution a 56% confidence rating to beat Orlando City SC, its own model's number rather than a market price. Calibrated against the market and graded results, that is a 29.7% chance; the betting market, with the margin removed, has 29.5%. The best price, +230 at BetRivers, is priced below the fair price of +237 (−2.1% value).
• Total goals: AiQ gives the over 3.5 goals a 58% confidence rating, its own model's number rather than a market price. Calibrated against the market and graded results, that is a 51.0% chance; the betting market, with the margin removed, has 50.4%. The best price, -120 at BetMGM, is priced below the fair price of -104 (−6.6% value).

Toronto FC vs Philadelphia Union

3:00 PM CT at Subaru Park.

Toronto FC have won 9, drawn 12 and lost 12 of their 33 matches this season, winning two of the last five. Philadelphia Union have won 13, drawn 8 and lost 12 of their 33 matches this season, winning one of the last five. When these teams last met, on April 22, 2026, they drew 3-3. This is their second meeting this season.

Matchups to watch.

• An uphill climb in shots. Toronto FC averaged 12.2 shots per match this season, tied for the 5th fewest in Major League Soccer, and Philadelphia Union faced 9.2 shots per match, the fewest.
• Mismatch in scoring. Philadelphia Union averaged 1.88 goals per match this season, tied for the 6th most in Major League Soccer, and Toronto FC conceded 1.91 goals per match, tied for the 5th most.

• Moneyline: AiQ gives Philadelphia Union a 58% confidence rating to beat Toronto FC, its own model's number rather than a market price. Calibrated against the market and graded results, that is a 68.1% chance; the betting market, with the margin removed, has 68.1%. The best price, -220 at BetMGM, is priced below the fair price of -213 (−1.0% value).
• Total goals: AiQ gives the over 3.5 goals a 54% confidence rating, its own model's number rather than a market price. Calibrated against the market and graded results, that is a 48.3% chance; the betting market, with the margin removed, has 47.8%. The best price, -108 at BetRivers, is priced below the fair price of +107 (−7.0% value).

Trends in play.

Everything points over on the total. Philadelphia Union went over the total in 7 of their last 10 matches. Toronto FC went over the total in 7 of their last 10 matches.

Portland Timbers vs Austin FC

6:00 PM CT at Q2 Stadium.

Portland Timbers have won 12, drawn 7 and lost 14 of their 33 matches this season, winning the last three. Austin FC have won 8, drawn 10 and lost 15 of their 33 matches this season, winning one of the last five. When these teams last met, on August 29, 2026, Austin FC won 2-1 on the road. This is their second meeting this season.

Matchups to watch.

• Weakness against weakness in shots. Austin FC averaged 11.0 shots per match this season, the 2nd fewest in Major League Soccer, and Portland Timbers faced 14.7 shots per match, the 6th most.

• Moneyline: AiQ gives Portland Timbers a 58% confidence rating to beat Austin FC, its own model's number rather than a market price. Calibrated against the market and graded results, that is a 56.6% chance; the betting market, with the margin removed, has 56.6%. The price on record, -145, is priced below the fair price of -131 (−4.3% value).
• Total goals: AiQ gives the under 3.5 goals a 54% confidence rating, its own model's number rather than a market price. Calibrated against the market and graded results, that is a 53.3% chance; the betting market, with the margin removed, has 53.3%. The best price, -124 at BetRivers, is priced below the fair price of -114 (−3.7% value).

Trends in play.

Everything points under on the total. Austin FC went under the total in 7 of their last 10 matches. Portland Timbers went under the total in 7 of their last 10 matches.

Colorado Rapids vs FC Dallas

6:00 PM CT at Toyota Stadium.

Colorado Rapids have won 12, drawn 7 and lost 14 of their 33 matches this season, winning one of the last five. FC Dallas have won 15, drawn 10 and lost 8 of their 33 matches this season, winning two of the last five. When these teams last met, on May 23, 2026, FC Dallas won 2-1 on the road. This is their second meeting this season.

Matchups to watch.

• An uphill climb in shots. Colorado Rapids averaged 12.4 shots per match this season, tied for the 7th fewest in Major League Soccer, and FC Dallas faced 11.9 shots per match, the 6th fewest.
• An uphill climb in shots. FC Dallas averaged 12.4 shots per match this season, tied for the 7th fewest in Major League Soccer, and Colorado Rapids faced 11.6 shots per match, tied for the 4th fewest.

• Moneyline: AiQ gives FC Dallas a 58% confidence rating to beat Colorado Rapids, its own model's number rather than a market price. Calibrated against the market and graded results, that is a 45.3% chance; the betting market, with the margin removed, has 45.2%. The price on record, +110, is priced below the fair price of +121 (−5.0% value).
• Total goals: AiQ gives the under 2.5 goals a 54% confidence rating, its own model's number rather than a market price. Calibrated against the market and graded results, that is a 42.2% chance; the betting market, with the margin removed, has 41.3%. The best price, +123 at BetRivers, is priced below the fair price of +137 (−6.0% value).

Trends in play.

Recent totals lean under. Colorado Rapids went under the total in 7 of their last 10 matches.

St. Louis CITY SC vs Houston Dynamo FC

6:00 PM CT at Shell Energy Stadium.

St. Louis CITY SC have won 14, drawn 9 and lost 10 of their 33 matches this season, losing the last four. Houston Dynamo FC have won 14, drawn 9 and lost 10 of their 33 matches this season, winning one of the last five. When these teams last met, on August 22, 2026, St. Louis CITY SC won 2-1 at home. This is their second meeting this season.

• Moneyline: AiQ gives St. Louis CITY SC a 58% confidence rating to beat Houston Dynamo FC, its own model's number rather than a market price. Calibrated against the market and graded results, that is a 37.1% chance; the betting market, with the margin removed, has 37.0%. The best price, +170 at BetRivers, is priced near the fair price of +170 (+0.1% value).
• Total goals: AiQ gives the over 2.5 goals a 58% confidence rating, its own model's number rather than a market price. Calibrated against the market and graded results, that is a 58.2% chance; the betting market, with the margin removed, has 58.2%. The best price, -150 at BetRivers, is priced below the fair price of -139 (−3.0% value).

Trends in play.

The total pulls both ways. Houston Dynamo FC went under the total in 7 of their last 10 matches. Meanwhile, St. Louis CITY SC went over the total in 7 of their last 10 matches.

San Jose Earthquakes vs Minnesota United FC

6:00 PM CT at Allianz Field.

San Jose Earthquakes have won 14, drawn 10 and lost 9 of their 33 matches this season, winning one of the last five. Minnesota United FC have won 10, drawn 11 and lost 12 of their 33 matches this season, winning three of the last five. When these teams last met, on August 22, 2026, Minnesota United FC won 5-1 on the road. This is their second meeting this season.

• Moneyline: AiQ gives a draw between San Jose Earthquakes and Minnesota United FC a 56% confidence rating, its own model's number rather than a market price. Calibrated against the market and graded results, that is a 21.3% chance; the betting market, with the margin removed, has 21.1%. The price on record, +320, is priced below the fair price of +370 (−10.6% value).
• Total goals: AiQ gives the under 3.5 goals a 60% confidence rating, its own model's number rather than a market price. Calibrated against the market and graded results, that is a 54.6% chance; the betting market, with the margin removed, has 54.2%. The best price, -124 at BetRivers, is priced below the fair price of -120 (−1.3% value).

LA Galaxy vs Real Salt Lake

6:00 PM CT at America First Field.

LA Galaxy have won 11, drawn 11 and lost 11 of their 33 matches this season, winning two of the last five. Real Salt Lake have won 12, drawn 6 and lost 15 of their 33 matches this season, winning three of the last five. When these teams last met, on April 26, 2026, LA Galaxy won 2-1 at home. This is their second meeting this season.

Matchups to watch.

• Mismatch in shots. Real Salt Lake averaged 14.4 shots per match this season, the 7th most in Major League Soccer, and LA Galaxy faced 14.0 shots per match, the 8th most.

Trends in play.

Everything points under on the total. Real Salt Lake went under the total in 7 of their last 10 matches. LA Galaxy went under the total in 7 of their last 10 matches.

Sporting Kansas City vs San Diego FC

6:00 PM CT at Snapdragon Stadium.

Sporting Kansas City have won 6, drawn 5 and lost 22 of their 33 matches this season, without a win in the last five. San Diego FC have won 9, drawn 11 and lost 13 of their 33 matches this season, winning one of the last five. When these teams last met, on March 7, 2026, San Diego FC won 1-0 on the road. This is their second meeting this season.

Matchups to watch.

• Weakness against weakness in scoring. Sporting Kansas City averaged 1.18 goals per match this season, tied for the 2nd fewest in Major League Soccer, and San Diego FC conceded 1.88 goals per match, tied for the 7th most.

Trends in play.

Recent totals lean over. San Diego FC went over the total in 11 of 14 home matches this season.

Los Angeles FC vs Seattle Sounders FC

6:00 PM CT at Lumen Field.

Los Angeles FC have won 12, drawn 11 and lost 10 of their 33 matches this season, winning one of the last five. Seattle Sounders FC have won 11, drawn 10 and lost 12 of their 33 matches this season, without a win in the last five. When these teams last met, on May 24, 2026, Los Angeles FC won 1-0 at home. This is their second meeting this season.

Matchups to watch.

• An uphill climb in scoring. Seattle Sounders FC averaged 1.27 goals per match this season, tied for the 4th fewest in Major League Soccer, and Los Angeles FC conceded 1.15 goals per match, the 3rd fewest.

These come from the closing lines of this season and last. They are context, not the reason for AiQ's picks, and the books price them in.

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