Toronto FC vs Philadelphia Union Prediction, Picks & Odds — Nov 7

Sat, Nov 7, 4:00 PM ET · Subaru Park · MLS

Open the game card for live odds, every market and the full prediction.

Toronto FC at Philadelphia Union is on Saturday, November 7, 2026, at Subaru Park.

The story

Toronto FC have won 9, drawn 12 and lost 12 of their 33 matches this season, winning two of the last five. Philadelphia Union have won 13, drawn 8 and lost 12 of their 33 matches this season, winning one of the last five. When these teams last met, on April 22, 2026, they drew 3-3. This is their second meeting this season.

Matchups to watch

• An uphill climb in shots. Toronto FC averaged 12.2 shots per match this season, tied for the 5th fewest in Major League Soccer, and Philadelphia Union faced 9.2 shots per match, the fewest.
• Mismatch in scoring. Philadelphia Union averaged 1.88 goals per match this season, tied for the 6th most in Major League Soccer, and Toronto FC conceded 1.91 goals per match, tied for the 5th most.

Moneyline

AiQ gives Philadelphia Union a 58% confidence rating to beat Toronto FC, its own model's number rather than a market price. Calibrated against the market and graded results, that is a 67.2% chance; the betting market, with the margin removed, has 67.2%. The best price, -220 at BetMGM, is priced below the fair price of -205 (−2.3% value).

Total goals

AiQ gives the over 3.5 goals a 54% confidence rating, its own model's number rather than a market price. Calibrated against the market and graded results, that is a 48.4% chance; the betting market, with the margin removed, has 47.8%. The best price, -108 at BetRivers, is priced below the fair price of +107 (−6.8% value).

Trends in play

Everything points over on the total. Philadelphia Union went over the total in 7 of their last 10 matches. Toronto FC went over the total in 7 of their last 10 matches.

These come from the closing lines of this season and last. They are context, not the reason for AiQ's picks, and the books price them in.