MLS Slate Analysis — Saturday, October 17, 2026

Saturday, October 17, 2026 · MLS

These matches have been played. Picks and prices, where shown, are AiQ's from before each match started. See how they finished in the MLS recaps.

The MLS slate for Saturday, October 17, 2026 has 14 matchs, the first at 1:30 PM CT. AiQ has a moneyline pick on all 14. Of AiQ's picks on this slate, 1 has a price on record above fair value. Each price is the one AiQ valued the pick at when it last priced the game.

Best value

• Los Angeles FC vs New York City FC: Draw on the moneyline (+260 at FanDuel, +1.8% value).

Every match

Charlotte FC vs Philadelphia Union

1:30 PM CT at Subaru Park.

Philadelphia Union have won 13, drawn 6 and lost 10 of their 29 matches this season, winning the last eight. Charlotte FC have won 13, drawn 7 and lost 9 of their 29 matches this season, winning two of the last five. When these teams last met, on April 4, 2026, Charlotte FC won 2-1 at home. This is their second meeting this season.

• Moneyline: AiQ gives Philadelphia Union a 58% confidence rating to beat Charlotte FC, its own model's number rather than a market price. Calibrated against the market and graded results, that is a 67.9% chance; the betting market, with the margin removed, has 68.2%. The best price, -235 at BetMGM, is priced below the fair price of -211 (−3.3% value).
• Total goals: AiQ gives the over 3.5 goals a 58% confidence rating, its own model's number rather than a market price. Calibrated against the market and graded results, that is a 54.1% chance; the betting market, with the margin removed, has 52.9%. The best price, -132 at BetRivers, is priced below the fair price of -118 (−5.0% value).

Trends in play.

Recent totals lean over. Philadelphia Union went over the total in 7 of their last 10 matches.

St. Louis CITY SC vs Minnesota United FC

3:30 PM CT at Allianz Field.

St. Louis CITY SC have won 14, drawn 9 and lost 6 of their 29 matches this season, winning four of the last five. Minnesota United FC have won 7, drawn 10 and lost 12 of their 29 matches this season, without a win in the last five. When these teams last met, on September 12, 2026, St. Louis CITY SC won 4-2 at home. This is their second meeting this season.

• Moneyline: AiQ gives St. Louis CITY SC a 58% confidence rating to beat Minnesota United FC, its own model's number rather than a market price. Calibrated against the market and graded results, that is a 37.3% chance; the betting market, with the margin removed, has 36.5%. The best price, +165 at BetRivers, is priced below the fair price of +168 (−1.2% value).
• Total goals: AiQ gives the over 3.5 goals a 58% confidence rating, its own model's number rather than a market price. Calibrated against the market and graded results, that is a 46.6% chance; the betting market, with the margin removed, has 43.1%. The best price, +112 at BetRivers, is priced below the fair price of +115 (−1.3% value).

Trends in play.

Recent totals lean over. St. Louis CITY SC went over the total in 7 of their last 10 matches.

Los Angeles FC vs New York City FC

6:30 PM CT at Citi Field.

Los Angeles FC have won 12, drawn 9 and lost 9 of their 30 matches this season, winning one of the last five. New York City FC have won 8, drawn 9 and lost 12 of their 29 matches this season, winning one of the last five.

• Moneyline: AiQ gives a draw between LAFC and New York City FC a 56% confidence rating, its own model's number rather than a market price. Calibrated against the market and graded results, that is a 28.3% chance; the betting market, with the margin removed, has 27.2%. The best price, +260 at FanDuel, is +1.8% value against the fair price of +254.
• Total goals: AiQ gives the under 2.5 goals a 54% confidence rating, its own model's number rather than a market price. Calibrated against the market and graded results, that is a 47.2% chance; the betting market, with the margin removed, has 45.2%. The best price, +106 at BetRivers, is priced below the fair price of +112 (−2.7% value).

Trends in play.

Recent totals lean under. New York City FC went under the total in 7 of their last 10 matches.

Toronto FC vs Red Bull New York

6:30 PM CT at Sports Illustrated Stadium.

Toronto FC have won 7, drawn 12 and lost 10 of their 29 matches this season, winning one of the last five. Red Bull New York have won 10, drawn 6 and lost 13 of their 29 matches this season, winning three of the last five. When these teams last met, on March 14, 2026, they drew 1-1. This is their second meeting this season.

• Moneyline: AiQ gives Red Bull New York a 54% confidence rating to beat Toronto FC, its own model's number rather than a market price. Calibrated against the market and graded results, that is a 58.1% chance; the betting market, with the margin removed, has 58.3%. The best price, -145 at BetMGM, is priced below the fair price of -139 (−1.8% value).
• Total goals: AiQ gives the under 3.5 goals a 58% confidence rating, its own model's number rather than a market price. Calibrated against the market and graded results, that is a 50.8% chance; the betting market, with the margin removed, has 48.7%. The best price, -103 at BetRivers, is priced near the fair price of -103 (+0.2% value).

Trends in play.

The total pulls both ways. Red Bull New York went under the total in 8 of their last 10 matches. Meanwhile, Toronto FC went over the total in 7 of their last 10 matches.

Chicago Fire FC vs New England Revolution

6:30 PM CT at Gillette Stadium.

Chicago Fire FC have won 14, drawn 6 and lost 9 of their 29 matches this season, winning three of the last five. New England Revolution have won 15, drawn 4 and lost 10 of their 29 matches this season, winning three of the last five. When these teams last met, on September 13, 2026, New England Revolution won 2-1 on the road. This is their second meeting this season.

• Moneyline: AiQ gives New England Revolution a 58% confidence rating to beat Chicago Fire FC, its own model's number rather than a market price. Calibrated against the market and graded results, that is a 41.2% chance; the betting market, with the margin removed, has 40.6%. The best price, +135 at FanDuel, is priced below the fair price of +142 (−3.1% value).
• Total goals: AiQ gives the under 3.5 goals a 51% confidence rating, its own model's number rather than a market price. Calibrated against the market and graded results, that is a 55.8% chance; the betting market, with the margin removed, has 55.8%. The best price, -136 at BetRivers, is priced below the fair price of -126 (−3.3% value).

Trends in play.

Recent totals lean under. Chicago Fire FC went under the total in 7 of their last 10 matches.

Inter Miami CF vs Atlanta United FC

6:30 PM CT at Mercedes-Benz Stadium.

Inter Miami CF have won 14, drawn 10 and lost 5 of their 29 matches this season, winning two of the last five. Atlanta United FC have won 8, drawn 6 and lost 15 of their 29 matches this season, winning two of the last five. When these teams last met, on September 5, 2026, they drew 2-2. This is their second meeting this season.

• Moneyline: AiQ gives Inter Miami CF a 56% confidence rating to beat Atlanta United FC, its own model's number rather than a market price. Calibrated against the market and graded results, that is a 51.0% chance; the betting market, with the margin removed, has 50.8%. The best price, -110 at Fanatics, is priced below the fair price of -104 (−2.6% value).
• Total goals: AiQ gives the over 3.5 goals a 58% confidence rating, its own model's number rather than a market price. Calibrated against the market and graded results, that is a 57.0% chance; the betting market, with the margin removed, has 56.7%. The best price, -145 at BetMGM, is priced below the fair price of -132 (−3.8% value).

D.C. United vs Orlando City SC

6:30 PM CT at Inter&Co Stadium.

D.C. United have won 7, drawn 12 and lost 9 of their 28 matches this season, winning one of the last five. Orlando City SC have won 11, drawn 5 and lost 13 of their 29 matches this season, winning two of the last five. When these teams last met, on April 25, 2026, D.C. United won 3-2 at home. This is their second meeting this season.

• Moneyline: AiQ gives Orlando City SC a 58% confidence rating to beat D.C. United, its own model's number rather than a market price. Calibrated against the market and graded results, that is a 59.0% chance; the betting market, with the margin removed, has 59.0%. The best price, -150 at Fanatics, is priced below the fair price of -144 (−1.7% value).
• Total goals: AiQ gives the under 3.5 goals a 52% confidence rating, its own model's number rather than a market price. Calibrated against the market and graded results, that is a 47.2% chance; the betting market, with the margin removed, has 47.2%. The best price, -105 at BetMGM, is priced below the fair price of +112 (−7.8% value).

Vancouver Whitecaps vs Austin FC

7:30 PM CT at Q2 Stadium.

Vancouver Whitecaps have won 15, drawn 7 and lost 7 of their 29 matches this season, winning one of the last five. Austin FC have won 7, drawn 10 and lost 12 of their 29 matches this season, winning one of the last five. When these teams last met, on September 13, 2026, Austin FC won 2-1 on the road. This is their second meeting this season.

• Moneyline: AiQ gives Vancouver Whitecaps a 58% confidence rating to beat Austin FC, its own model's number rather than a market price. Calibrated against the market and graded results, that is a 64.4% chance; the betting market, with the margin removed, has 64.6%. The best price, -180 at BetRivers, is priced near the fair price of -181 (+0.2% value).
• Total goals: AiQ gives the under 3.5 goals a 58% confidence rating, its own model's number rather than a market price. Calibrated against the market and graded results, that is a 56.5% chance; the betting market, with the margin removed, has 56.1%. The best price, -150 at BetMGM, is priced below the fair price of -130 (−5.8% value).

Trends in play.

Everything points under on the total. Vancouver Whitecaps went under the total in 8 of their last 10 matches. Austin FC went under the total in 7 of their last 10 matches.

FC Dallas vs Houston Dynamo FC

7:30 PM CT at Shell Energy Stadium.

FC Dallas have won 14, drawn 8 and lost 7 of their 29 matches this season, winning three of the last five. Houston Dynamo FC have won 13, drawn 7 and lost 9 of their 29 matches this season, without a win in the last five. When these teams last met, on March 21, 2026, FC Dallas won 4-3 at home. This is their second meeting this season.

• Moneyline: AiQ gives FC Dallas a 56% confidence rating to beat Houston Dynamo FC, its own model's number rather than a market price. Calibrated against the market and graded results, that is a 29.1% chance; the betting market, with the margin removed, has 28.0%. The best price, +240 at FanDuel, is priced below the fair price of +244 (−1.1% value).
• Total goals: AiQ gives the over 2.5 goals a 60% confidence rating, its own model's number rather than a market price. Calibrated against the market and graded results, that is a 55.5% chance; the betting market, with the margin removed, has 54.1%. The best price, -136 at BetRivers, is priced below the fair price of -125 (−3.8% value).

Trends in play.

Recent totals lean under. Houston Dynamo FC went under the total in 7 of their last 10 matches.

Real Salt Lake vs Sporting Kansas City

7:30 PM CT at Sporting Park.

Real Salt Lake have won 9, drawn 6 and lost 14 of their 29 matches this season, winning one of the last five. Sporting Kansas City have won 6, drawn 4 and lost 19 of their 29 matches this season, winning one of the last five. When these teams last met, on April 4, 2026, Real Salt Lake won 3-1 at home. This is their second meeting this season.

• Moneyline: AiQ gives a draw between Real Salt Lake and Sporting Kansas City a 56% confidence rating, its own model's number rather than a market price. Calibrated against the market and graded results, that is a 25.2% chance; the betting market, with the margin removed, has 24.0%. The best price, +280 at Fanatics, is priced below the fair price of +297 (−4.3% value).
• Total goals: AiQ gives the under 3.5 goals a 58% confidence rating, its own model's number rather than a market price. Calibrated against the market and graded results, that is a 57.8% chance; the betting market, with the margin removed, has 57.7%. The best price, -141 at BetRivers, is priced below the fair price of -137 (−1.2% value).

Trends in play.

Recent totals lean under. Real Salt Lake went under the total in 7 of their last 10 matches.

CF Montréal vs Seattle Sounders FC

9:30 PM CT at Lumen Field.

CF Montréal have won 6, drawn 6 and lost 17 of their 29 matches this season, winning one of the last five. Seattle Sounders FC have won 11, drawn 8 and lost 10 of their 29 matches this season, winning four of the last five.

Matchups to watch.

• An uphill climb in scoring. CF Montréal averaged 1.21 goals per match this season, the 2nd fewest in Major League Soccer, and Seattle Sounders FC conceded 1.24 goals per match, the 4th fewest.
• Weakness against weakness in scoring. Seattle Sounders FC averaged 1.31 goals per match this season, the 7th fewest in Major League Soccer, and CF Montréal conceded 2.03 goals per match, the 4th most.

• Moneyline: AiQ gives Seattle Sounders FC a 58% confidence rating to beat CF Montréal, its own model's number rather than a market price. Calibrated against the market and graded results, that is a 70.9% chance; the betting market, with the margin removed, has 71.4%. The best price, -250 at BetMGM, is priced below the fair price of -244 (−0.8% value).
• Total goals: AiQ gives the under 3.5 goals a 54% confidence rating, its own model's number rather than a market price. Calibrated against the market and graded results, that is a 54.6% chance; the betting market, with the margin removed, has 54.8%. The best price, -129 at BetRivers, is priced below the fair price of -120 (−3.0% value).

Nashville SC vs San Jose Earthquakes

9:30 PM CT at PayPal Park.

Nashville SC have won 20, drawn 6 and lost 3 of their 29 matches this season, winning the last four. San Jose Earthquakes have won 13, drawn 8 and lost 8 of their 29 matches this season, winning two of the last five.

• Moneyline: AiQ gives Nashville SC a 58% confidence rating to beat San Jose Earthquakes, its own model's number rather than a market price. Calibrated against the market and graded results, that is a 52.3% chance; the betting market, with the margin removed, has 52.1%. The best price, -110 at BetRivers, is priced near the fair price of -110 (−0.1% value).
• Total goals: AiQ gives the over 3.5 goals a 54% confidence rating, its own model's number rather than a market price. Calibrated against the market and graded results, that is a 44.2% chance; the betting market, with the margin removed, has 41.3%. The best price, +120 at BetMGM, is priced below the fair price of +126 (−2.8% value).

San Diego FC vs LA Galaxy

9:30 PM CT at Dignity Health Sports Park.

San Diego FC have won 8, drawn 9 and lost 12 of their 29 matches this season, without a win in the last five. LA Galaxy have won 10, drawn 9 and lost 11 of their 30 matches this season, winning three of the last five. When these teams last met, on August 29, 2026, San Diego FC won 3-1 at home. This is their second meeting this season.

Matchups to watch.

• Weakness against weakness in scoring. LA Galaxy averaged 1.37 goals per match this season, tied for the 8th fewest in Major League Soccer, and San Diego FC conceded 1.86 goals per match, the 8th most.

• Moneyline: AiQ gives a draw between San Diego FC and LA Galaxy a 56% confidence rating, its own model's number rather than a market price. Calibrated against the market and graded results, that is a 25.0% chance; the betting market, with the margin removed, has 23.8%. The best price, +300 at BetRivers, is priced near the fair price of +300 (+0.1% value).
• Total goals: AiQ gives the over 3.5 goals a 58% confidence rating, its own model's number rather than a market price. Calibrated against the market and graded results, that is a 54.4% chance; the betting market, with the margin removed, has 53.3%. The best price, -130 at BetRivers, is priced below the fair price of -119 (−3.9% value).

Trends in play.

Everything points under on the total. LA Galaxy went under the total in 10 of 13 home matches this season. San Diego FC went under the total in 8 of 11 road matches this season.

Colorado Rapids vs Portland Timbers

9:30 PM CT at Providence Park.

Colorado Rapids have won 11, drawn 5 and lost 13 of their 29 matches this season, winning one of the last five. Portland Timbers have won 9, drawn 6 and lost 14 of their 29 matches this season, without a win in the last five. When these teams last met, on February 28, 2026, Colorado Rapids won 2-0 at home. This is their second meeting this season.

• Moneyline: AiQ gives a draw between Colorado Rapids and Portland Timbers a 56% confidence rating, its own model's number rather than a market price. Calibrated against the market and graded results, that is a 25.1% chance; the betting market, with the margin removed, has 23.9%. The best price, +290 at BetRivers, is priced below the fair price of +298 (−2.1% value).
• Total goals: AiQ gives the under 3.5 goals a 55% confidence rating, its own model's number rather than a market price. Calibrated against the market and graded results, that is a 59.6% chance; the betting market, with the margin removed, has 61.0%. The price on record, -177, is priced below the fair price of -148 (−6.7% value).

Trends in play.

Everything points under on the total. Portland Timbers went under the total in 7 of their last 10 matches. Colorado Rapids went under the total in 7 of their last 10 matches.

These come from the closing lines of this season and last. They are context, not the reason for AiQ's picks, and the books price them in.

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