Nashville SC and San Jose Earthquakes draw 1-1: Match Recap, Betting Results & AiQ Picks
Sat, Oct 17, 2026 · MLS · Nashville SC 1, San Jose Earthquakes 1
Nashville SC and San Jose Earthquakes drew 1–1 on Saturday, October 17 at PayPal Park. The total finished under 3.5 goals with only 2 scored. AiQ's overall record on this match was 1–4 across every graded pick.
Nashville SC vs. San Jose Earthquakes final score and match recap
Nashville SC opened the scoring in the first half through Hany Mukhtar, taking a 1–0 lead into the break. San Jose Earthquakes equalized in the second half when Preston Judd found the net off an assist from Eduard Löwen. The score held through the final whistle at 1–1.
Did Nashville SC vs. San Jose Earthquakes go over or under the goals total?
The total went under 3.5 goals, with only 2 scored across both halves. AiQ had taken the Over 3.5 pick at 54% confidence and lost the wager.
How did AiQ's Nashville SC vs. San Jose Earthquakes predictions do?
AiQ finished 1–4 on this matchup.
- Moneyline: Nashville SC at -119 – LOSS (−$100 on a $100 bet)
- Total goals: Over 3.5 – LOSS
- Player props: 1–2 – net +$15 on $100 per pick
The model's confidence in the over proved misplaced. On the Nashville SC moneyline at -110 (best available), AiQ's expected value was −0.1%, a negative-EV price despite favoring the side. The market's implied 52% win probability for Nashville SC matched AiQ's calibrated estimate, confirming alignment on the side but not on price.
Nashville SC vs. San Jose Earthquakes player prop results
AiQ's player prop record was 1–2, netting +$15.
- Preston Judd (San Jose Earthquakes) to score anytime at +215 – WIN
- Dave Romney (San Jose Earthquakes) to score anytime at +2000 – LOSS
- Jack Jasinski (San Jose Earthquakes) to score anytime at +850 – LOSS
Only Judd delivered, offsetting the two losing picks.
Nashville SC vs. San Jose Earthquakes game prop results: both teams to score and draw no bet
- Both teams to score: Yes (paid −210)
- Draw no bet: Match drawn, stakes refunded
Nashville SC vs. San Jose Earthquakes odds: sportsbook value and line movement
The three-way moneyline was Nashville SC −119, Draw +285, and San Jose Earthquakes +267. After vig removal, the implied probabilities were 51% for Nashville SC, 25% for San Jose Earthquakes, and 24% for a draw, with a bookmaker margin of 7.6%. The draw paid +285, returning a $100 bet as $285 profit.
Nashville SC and San Jose Earthquakes betting trends: 2026 season
Nashville SC sits at 20–7–3 through 30 games, with a dominant 14–1–0 record at home and 6–6–3 away or neutral. In 26 games with a recorded closing total, Nashville SC hit the over 15 times and the under 11 times. Their last five results: Draw, Win, Win, Win, Win.
San Jose Earthquakes are 13–9–8 in 30 contests, posting 6–4–5 at home and 7–5–3 away or neutral. Their total line split is even at 13 overs and 13 unders across the same 26-game sample. The Earthquakes are on a three-game draw streak, with their last five results: Draw, Draw, Draw, Win, Draw.
What's next for Nashville SC and San Jose Earthquakes?
Nashville SC travels to CF Montréal on Saturday, October 24. San Jose Earthquakes head to FC Dallas on Saturday, October 24.