NFL Slate Analysis — Sunday, October 18, 2026

Sunday, October 18, 2026 · NFL

These games have been played. Picks and prices, where shown, are AiQ's from before each game started. See how they finished in the NFL recaps.

The NFL slate for Sunday, October 18, 2026 has 12 games, the first at 8:30 AM CT. AiQ has a moneyline pick on all 12. Of AiQ's picks on this slate, 2 have a price on record above fair value. Each price is the one AiQ valued the pick at when it last priced the game.

Best value

• Tennessee Titans at Indianapolis Colts: Indianapolis Colts on the moneyline (-280 at FanDuel, +0.9% value).
• Arizona Cardinals at Los Angeles Rams: Los Angeles Rams on the moneyline (-700, +0.6% value).

Every game

Houston Texans vs Jacksonville Jaguars

8:30 AM CT at Wembley Stadium, a neutral site. Averaged over the outcomes the betting lines imply, the projected score is Houston Texans 21, Jacksonville Jaguars 23. That is an average, not a pick.

The Jacksonville Jaguars have won 4 of their 5 games this season, winning the last three. The Houston Texans have won 1 of their 5 games this season. When these teams last met, on November 9, 2025, the Houston Texans won 36-29 at home.

Matchups to watch.

• An uphill climb on the ground. The Houston Texans averaged 79.0 rushing yards per game this season, the 2nd fewest in the NFL, and the Jacksonville Jaguars allowed 63.8 rushing yards per game, the fewest.

• Moneyline: The betting market, with the margin removed, gives Jacksonville Jaguars a 56.3% chance to beat Houston Texans. AiQ's moneyline pick is the side the consensus favors. The best price, -135 at BetMGM, is priced below the fair price of -129 (−2.0% value).
• Total: The betting market, with the margin removed, puts the over 42.5 points at 49.3% and the under at 50.7%. That is near a coin flip, and AiQ's read is the market's own, so AiQ has no edge on the total. AiQ's projected total, 43.1 points, sits on the 42.5 line.
• Spread: The betting market, with the margin removed, gives Houston Texans +2.5 a 49.5% chance to cover and Jacksonville Jaguars -2.5 50.5%. That is near a coin flip, and AiQ's read is the market's own, so AiQ has no edge on the spread.

Trends in play.

Recent totals lean under. The last 4 games involving the Jacksonville Jaguars went under the total.

Against the spread, the records lean toward the Jacksonville Jaguars. The Jacksonville Jaguars covered the spread in 7 of their last 10 games. The Houston Texans failed to cover the spread in 7 of their last 10 games.

Baltimore Ravens at Cleveland Browns

12:00 PM CT at Huntington Bank Field. Averaged over the outcomes the betting lines imply, the projected score is Baltimore Ravens 22, Cleveland Browns 19. That is an average, not a pick.

The Baltimore Ravens have won 4 of their 5 games this season, winning the last three. The Cleveland Browns have won 3 of their 5 games this season. When these teams last met, on November 16, 2025, the Baltimore Ravens won 23-16 on the road.

• Moneyline: The betting market, with the margin removed, gives Baltimore Ravens a 61.8% chance to beat Cleveland Browns. AiQ's moneyline pick is the side the consensus favors. The price on record, -170, is priced below the fair price of -162 (−1.9% value).
• Total: The betting market, with the margin removed, puts the over 39.5 points at 50.0% and the under at 50.0%. That is near a coin flip, and AiQ's read is the market's own, so AiQ has no edge on the total. AiQ's projected total, 40.4 points, sits on the 39.5 line.
• Spread: The betting market, with the margin removed, gives Baltimore Ravens -3 a 51.4% chance to cover and Cleveland Browns +3 48.6%. That is near a coin flip, and AiQ's read is the market's own, so AiQ has no edge on the spread.

Trends in play.

Recent totals lean over. The Baltimore Ravens went over the total in 7 of their last 10 games.

Carolina Panthers at Philadelphia Eagles

12:00 PM CT at Lincoln Financial Field. Averaged over the outcomes the betting lines imply, the projected score is Carolina Panthers 22, Philadelphia Eagles 18. That is an average, not a pick.

The Philadelphia Eagles have won 2 of their 5 games this season, losing the last three. The Carolina Panthers have won 2 of their 4 games this season. The Carolina Panthers come in with more rest: their last game was on October 4, 14 days before this one, while the Philadelphia Eagles played seven days before.

Matchups to watch.

• Mismatch through the air. The Carolina Panthers averaged 301.3 passing yards per game this season, the 2nd most in the NFL, and the Philadelphia Eagles allowed 238.8 passing yards per game, the 7th most.
• Weakness against weakness in total yards. The Philadelphia Eagles averaged 262.2 yards per game this season, the 3rd fewest in the NFL, and the Carolina Panthers allowed 387.3 yards per game, the 4th most.

• Moneyline: The betting market, with the margin removed, gives Carolina Panthers a 61.0% chance to beat Philadelphia Eagles. AiQ's moneyline pick is the side the consensus favors. The price on record, -162, is priced below the fair price of -156 (−1.3% value).
• Total: The betting market, with the margin removed, puts the over 39 points at 50.0% and the under at 50.0%. That is near a coin flip, and AiQ's read is the market's own, so AiQ has no edge on the total. AiQ's projected total, 39.8 points, sits on the 39 line.
• Spread: The betting market, with the margin removed, gives Carolina Panthers -3 a 50.9% chance to cover and Philadelphia Eagles +3 49.1%. That is near a coin flip, and AiQ's read is the market's own, so AiQ has no edge on the spread.

Chicago Bears at Atlanta Falcons

12:00 PM CT at Mercedes-Benz Stadium. Averaged over the outcomes the betting lines imply, the projected score is Chicago Bears 26, Atlanta Falcons 26. That is an average, not a pick.

The Chicago Bears have won 3 of their 5 games this season. The Atlanta Falcons have won 2 of their 5 games this season.

Matchups to watch.

• Strength against strength on the ground. The Chicago Bears averaged 173.2 rushing yards per game this season, the most in the NFL, and the Atlanta Falcons allowed 80.2 rushing yards per game, the 4th fewest.

• Moneyline: The betting market, with the margin removed, gives Chicago Bears a 51.6% chance to beat Atlanta Falcons. AiQ's moneyline pick is the side the consensus favors. The price on record, -118, is priced below the fair price of -107 (−4.6% value).
• Total: The betting market, with the margin removed, puts the over 51.5 points at 49.3% and the under at 50.7%. That is near a coin flip, and AiQ's read is the market's own, so AiQ has no edge on the total. AiQ's projected total, 52.1 points, sits on the 51.5 line.
• Spread: The betting market, with the margin removed, gives Chicago Bears -1.5 a 48.7% chance to cover and Atlanta Falcons +1.5 51.3%. That is near a coin flip, and AiQ's read is the market's own, so AiQ has no edge on the spread.

Trends in play.

Recent totals lean under. The last 4 games involving the Chicago Bears went under the total.

New Orleans Saints at New York Giants

12:00 PM CT at MetLife Stadium. Averaged over the outcomes the betting lines imply, the projected score is New Orleans Saints 23, New York Giants 23. That is an average, not a pick.

The New Orleans Saints have won 1 of their 5 games this season, losing the last three. The New York Giants have won 3, tied 1 and lost 1 of their 5 games this season. When these teams last met, on October 5, 2025, the New Orleans Saints won 26-14 at home.

Matchups to watch.

• Weakness against weakness on the ground. The New Orleans Saints averaged 81.8 rushing yards per game this season, the 4th fewest in the NFL, and the New York Giants allowed 127.6 rushing yards per game, tied for the 8th most.

• Moneyline: The betting market, with the margin removed, gives New Orleans Saints a 50.3% chance to beat New York Giants. AiQ's moneyline pick is the side the consensus favors, here by less than a point. The price on record, -108, is priced below the fair price of -101 (−3.1% value).
• Total: The betting market, with the margin removed, puts the over 46 points at 50.0% and the under at 50.0%. That is near a coin flip, and AiQ's read is the market's own, so AiQ has no edge on the total. AiQ's projected total, 46.8 points, sits on the 46 line.
• Spread: The betting market, with the margin removed, gives New Orleans Saints -1.5 a 47.1% chance to cover and New York Giants +1.5 52.9%. That is near a coin flip, and AiQ's read is the market's own, so AiQ has no edge on the spread.

Trends in play.

Recent totals lean over. The New York Giants went over the total in 7 of their last 10 games.

Recent results against the spread back the New Orleans Saints. The New Orleans Saints covered the spread in 7 of their last 10 games.

New York Jets at New England Patriots

12:00 PM CT at Gillette Stadium. Averaged over the outcomes the betting lines imply, the projected score is New York Jets 18, New England Patriots 26. That is an average, not a pick.

The New York Jets have won 2 of their 5 games this season. The New England Patriots have won 3 of their 5 games this season. When these teams last met, on December 28, 2025, the New England Patriots won 42-10 on the road.

Matchups to watch.

• An uphill climb in scoring. The New York Jets averaged 18.6 points per game this season, tied for the 5th fewest in the NFL, and the New England Patriots allowed 18.8 points per game, the 4th fewest.
• Strength against strength in total yards. The New England Patriots averaged 372.4 yards per game this season, the 8th most in the NFL, and the New York Jets allowed 293.0 yards per game, the 4th fewest.

• Moneyline: The betting market, with the margin removed, gives New England Patriots a 76.3% chance to beat New York Jets. AiQ's moneyline pick is the side the consensus favors. The best price, -340 at FanDuel, is priced below the fair price of -323 (−1.2% value).
• Total: The betting market, with the margin removed, puts the over 42.5 points at 50.6% and the under at 49.4%. That is near a coin flip, and AiQ's read is the market's own, so AiQ has no edge on the total. AiQ's projected total, 43.5 points, comes from the same market prices, so it adds nothing to them.
• Spread: The betting market, with the margin removed, gives New York Jets +7 a 48.9% chance to cover and New England Patriots -7 51.1%. That is near a coin flip, and AiQ's read is the market's own, so AiQ has no edge on the spread.

Pittsburgh Steelers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

12:00 PM CT at Raymond James Stadium. Averaged over the outcomes the betting lines imply, the projected score is Pittsburgh Steelers 20, Tampa Bay Buccaneers 19. That is an average, not a pick.

The Pittsburgh Steelers have won 3 of their 5 games this season. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have won 1 of their 5 games this season. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers come in with more rest: their last game was on October 8, ten days before this one, while the Pittsburgh Steelers played seven days before.

• Moneyline: The betting market, with the margin removed, gives Pittsburgh Steelers a 55.1% chance to beat Tampa Bay Buccaneers. AiQ's moneyline pick is the side the consensus favors. The best price, -129 at BetRivers, is priced below the fair price of -123 (−2.2% value).
• Total: The betting market, with the margin removed, puts the over 38.5 points at 49.2% and the under at 50.8%. That is near a coin flip, and AiQ's read is the market's own, so AiQ has no edge on the total. AiQ's projected total, 39.0 points, sits on the 38.5 line.
• Spread: The betting market, with the margin removed, gives Pittsburgh Steelers -2.5 a 49.5% chance to cover and Tampa Bay Buccaneers +2.5 50.5%. That is near a coin flip, and AiQ's read is the market's own, so AiQ has no edge on the spread.

Trends in play.

Recent results against the spread back the Pittsburgh Steelers. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers failed to cover the spread in 9 of their last 10 games.

Tennessee Titans at Indianapolis Colts

12:00 PM CT at Lucas Oil Stadium. Averaged over the outcomes the betting lines imply, the projected score is Tennessee Titans 19, Indianapolis Colts 26. That is an average, not a pick.

The Tennessee Titans have lost seven straight, a run that goes back to last season, and all five of their games this season. The Indianapolis Colts have won 2 of their 5 games this season. When these teams last met, on October 26, 2025, the Indianapolis Colts won 38-14 at home.

Matchups to watch.

• Weakness against weakness in total yards. The Tennessee Titans averaged 246.4 yards per game this season, the fewest in the NFL, and the Indianapolis Colts allowed 384.2 yards per game, the 5th most.

• Moneyline: The betting market, with the margin removed, gives Indianapolis Colts a 74.4% chance to beat Tennessee Titans. AiQ's moneyline pick is the side the consensus favors. The best price, -280 at FanDuel, is +0.9% value against the fair price of -290.
• Total: The betting market, with the margin removed, puts the over 43.5 points at 51.2% and the under at 48.8%. That is near a coin flip, and AiQ's read is the market's own, so AiQ has no edge on the total. AiQ's projected total, 44.7 points, comes from the same market prices, so it adds nothing to them.
• Spread: The betting market, with the margin removed, gives Tennessee Titans +6.5 a 49.4% chance to cover and Indianapolis Colts -6.5 50.6%. That is near a coin flip, and AiQ's read is the market's own, so AiQ has no edge on the spread.

Arizona Cardinals at Los Angeles Rams

3:05 PM CT at SoFi Stadium. Averaged over the outcomes the betting lines imply, the projected score is Arizona Cardinals 20, Los Angeles Rams 32. That is an average, not a pick.

The Arizona Cardinals have won 1 of their 5 games this season, losing the last four. The Los Angeles Rams have won 2 of their 5 games this season. When these teams last met, on January 4, 2026, the Los Angeles Rams won 37-20 at home.

Matchups to watch.

• Mismatch in total yards. The Los Angeles Rams averaged 424.4 yards per game this season, the most in the NFL, and the Arizona Cardinals allowed 363.4 yards per game, the 7th most.

• Moneyline: The betting market, with the margin removed, gives Los Angeles Rams an 88.0% chance to beat Arizona Cardinals. AiQ's moneyline pick is the side the consensus favors. The price on record, -700, is +0.6% value against the fair price of -734.
• Total: The betting market, with the margin removed, puts the over 51.5 points at 49.8% and the under at 50.2%. That is near a coin flip, and AiQ's read is the market's own, so AiQ has no edge on the total. AiQ's projected total, 52.3 points, sits on the 51.5 line.
• Spread: The betting market, with the margin removed, gives Arizona Cardinals +12.5 a 49.7% chance to cover and Los Angeles Rams -12.5 50.3%. That is near a coin flip, and AiQ's read is the market's own, so AiQ has no edge on the spread.

Trends in play.

Against the spread, the records pull in opposite directions. The Arizona Cardinals failed to cover the spread in 8 of their last 10 games. Meanwhile, the Los Angeles Rams failed to cover the spread in 7 of their last 10 games.

Recent totals lean over. The Los Angeles Rams went over the total in 7 of their last 10 games.

Buffalo Bills at Las Vegas Raiders

3:25 PM CT at Allegiant Stadium. Averaged over the outcomes the betting lines imply, the projected score is Buffalo Bills 30, Las Vegas Raiders 24. That is an average, not a pick.

The Buffalo Bills have won 4 of their 5 games this season. The Las Vegas Raiders have won 3 of their 5 games this season.

Matchups to watch.

• Mismatch on the ground. The Buffalo Bills averaged 158.0 rushing yards per game this season, the 5th most in the NFL, and the Las Vegas Raiders allowed 140.6 rushing yards per game, the 4th most.
• Mismatch through the air. The Las Vegas Raiders averaged 253.6 passing yards per game this season, the 8th most in the NFL, and the Buffalo Bills allowed 280.4 passing yards per game, the 2nd most.

• Moneyline: The betting market, with the margin removed, gives Buffalo Bills a 68.8% chance to beat Las Vegas Raiders. AiQ's moneyline pick is the side the consensus favors. The best price, -235 at BetMGM, is priced below the fair price of -221 (−1.9% value).
• Total: The betting market, with the margin removed, puts the over 53.5 points at 49.9% and the under at 50.1%. That is near a coin flip, and AiQ's read is the market's own, so AiQ has no edge on the total. AiQ's projected total, 54.4 points, sits on the 53.5 line.
• Spread: The betting market, with the margin removed, gives Buffalo Bills -5 a 50.1% chance to cover and Las Vegas Raiders +5 49.9%. That is near a coin flip, and AiQ's read is the market's own, so AiQ has no edge on the spread.

Trends in play.

Recent results against the spread back the Las Vegas Raiders, the underdog here. The Las Vegas Raiders covered the spread in 7 of their last 10 games.

Recent totals lean over. The Buffalo Bills went over the total in 7 of their last 10 games.

Los Angeles Chargers at Kansas City Chiefs

3:25 PM CT at Arrowhead Stadium. Averaged over the outcomes the betting lines imply, the projected score is Los Angeles Chargers 17, Kansas City Chiefs 25. That is an average, not a pick.

Two teams heading in opposite directions meet here. The Los Angeles Chargers have lost eight straight, a run that goes back to last season's playoffs, and all five of their games this season. The Kansas City Chiefs have won all four of their games this season. The Kansas City Chiefs come in with more rest: their last game was on October 4, 14 days before this one, while the Los Angeles Chargers played seven days before. When these teams last met, on December 14, 2025, the Los Angeles Chargers won 16-13 on the road.

Matchups to watch.

• An uphill climb in scoring. The Los Angeles Chargers averaged 16.8 points per game this season, the 3rd fewest in the NFL, and the Kansas City Chiefs allowed 19.3 points per game, the 7th fewest.

• Moneyline: The betting market, with the margin removed, gives Kansas City Chiefs a 79.2% chance to beat Los Angeles Chargers. AiQ's moneyline pick is the side the consensus favors. The best price, -390 at FanDuel, is priced near the fair price of -381 (−0.5% value).
• Total: The betting market, with the margin removed, puts the over 41.5 points at 50.0% and the under at 50.0%. That is near a coin flip, and AiQ's read is the market's own, so AiQ has no edge on the total. AiQ's projected total, 42.3 points, sits on the 41.5 line.
• Spread: The betting market, with the margin removed, gives Los Angeles Chargers +7.5 a 51.0% chance to cover and Kansas City Chiefs -7.5 49.0%. That is near a coin flip, and AiQ's read is the market's own, so AiQ has no edge on the spread.

Trends in play.

Everything points under on the total. The Los Angeles Chargers went under the total in 8 of their last 10 games. The Kansas City Chiefs went under the total in 7 of their last 10 games.

Against the spread, the records pull in opposite directions. The Los Angeles Chargers failed to cover the spread in 7 of their last 10 games (1 push). Meanwhile, the Kansas City Chiefs failed to cover the spread in 7 of their last 10 games.

Dallas Cowboys at Green Bay Packers

7:20 PM CT at Lambeau Field. Averaged over the outcomes the betting lines imply, the projected score is Dallas Cowboys 27, Green Bay Packers 27. That is an average, not a pick.

The Dallas Cowboys have won 2 of their 5 games this season. The Green Bay Packers have won 3 of their 5 games this season. The Dallas Cowboys come in with more rest: their last game was on October 8, ten days before this one, while the Green Bay Packers played seven days before. When these teams last met, on September 28, 2025, they tied 40-40.

Matchups to watch.

• Strength against strength through the air. The Dallas Cowboys averaged 269.6 passing yards per game this season, the 5th most in the NFL, and the Green Bay Packers allowed 181.0 passing yards per game, the 5th fewest.
• Weakness against weakness on the ground. The Green Bay Packers averaged 60.4 rushing yards per game this season, the fewest in the NFL, and the Dallas Cowboys allowed 168.4 rushing yards per game, the most.

• Moneyline: The betting market, with the margin removed, gives Dallas Cowboys a 50.6% chance to beat Green Bay Packers. AiQ's moneyline pick is the side the consensus favors, here by less than a point. The price on record, -112, is priced below the fair price of -102 (−4.3% value).
• Total: The betting market, with the margin removed, puts the over 53.5 points at 50.2% and the under at 49.8%. That is near a coin flip, and AiQ's read is the market's own, so AiQ has no edge on the total. AiQ's projected total, 54.4 points, sits on the 53.5 line.
• Spread: The betting market, with the margin removed, gives Dallas Cowboys +0.5 a 50.6% chance to cover and Green Bay Packers -0.5 49.4%. That is near a coin flip, and AiQ's read is the market's own, so AiQ has no edge on the spread.

Trends in play.

Recent totals lean over. The Dallas Cowboys went over the total in 9 of their last 10 games.

Against the spread, the records pull in opposite directions. The Green Bay Packers failed to cover the spread in 7 of their last 10 games (1 push). Meanwhile, the Dallas Cowboys failed to cover the spread in 7 of their last 10 games.

These come from the closing lines of this season and last. They are context, not the reason for AiQ's picks, and the books price them in.

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