Chicago Bears defeat Atlanta Falcons 31-23: Recap, Betting Results & AiQ Picks
Sun, Oct 18, 2026 · NFL · Chicago Bears 31, Atlanta Falcons 23
Chicago Bears defeated Atlanta Falcons 31–23 on Sunday at Mercedes-Benz Stadium, covering the -1.5 spread and the total went over 51.5 to finish at 54 points.
Chicago Bears vs. Atlanta Falcons final score and game recap
The Bears controlled the first half decisively. By halftime, Chicago led 21–7. The Bears extended their advantage to 28–7 after three quarters, but Atlanta's fourth-quarter surge—16 points in the final frame—narrowed the margin.
Caleb Williams completed 30 of 36 passes for 305 yards, one touchdown, and no interceptions. Luther Burden III caught eight passes for 95 yards. Michael Penix Jr. threw for 225 yards and three touchdowns without an interception for the Falcons, while Jahan Dotson hauled in three receptions for 87 yards and a touchdown.
Who covered the spread in Chicago Bears vs. Atlanta Falcons?
Chicago Bears covered as -1.5 favorites, winning by eight points. The spread opened and closed at Chicago Bears -1.5 with no movement.
Did Chicago Bears vs. Atlanta Falcons go over or under the total?
The game went over 51.5, finishing at 54 points—an over by 2.5. The total opened at 52.5 and moved down one point to 51.5 at close.
How did AiQ's Chicago Bears vs. Atlanta Falcons predictions do?
AiQ posted a 30–26 record across all graded picks.
- Moneyline: Chicago Bears at -115 – WIN (+$86.96 on a $100 bet)
- Player props: 29–26
AiQ's moneyline pick on Chicago carried negative expected value at -4.6% when priced at -118, meaning the model favored the Bears but not at that price. The model's calibrated win probability for Chicago matched the market's implied probability at 52% (vig removed). Despite the unfavorable odds, the pick cashed.
Chicago Bears vs. Atlanta Falcons player prop results
AiQ's player prop record stood at 29–26. Notable results:
- Kalif Raymond over 2.5 receptions at -166 – actual 2 – LOSS
- Kalif Raymond over 28.5 receiving yards at -114 – actual 18 – LOSS
- Bijan Robinson under 30.5 receiving yards at -115 – actual -8 – WIN
- Brian Robinson Jr. over 32.5 rushing yards at -113 – actual 1 – LOSS
- Jahan Dotson over 23.5 receiving yards at -108 – actual 87 – WIN
- Bijan Robinson under 3.5 receptions at -120 – actual 2 – WIN
- Rome Odunze over 3.5 receptions at +128 – actual 3 – LOSS
- Drake London over 89.5 receiving yards at -113 – actual 62 – LOSS
- Kyle Pitts Sr. over 31.5 receiving yards at -110 – actual 60 – WIN
- Rome Odunze over 44.5 receiving yards at -112 – actual 39 – LOSS
- D'Andre Swift over 84.5 rush reception yards at -114 – actual 70 – LOSS
- Bijan Robinson over 95.5 rushing yards at -112 – actual 61 – LOSS
Chicago Bears vs. Atlanta Falcons game prop results: first quarter, first half and team totals
- First-quarter total 9.5: Over (paid -135); 14 points were scored
- First-quarter moneyline: Chicago Bears won the first quarter (paid -108)
- First-half total 25.5: Over (paid -112); 28 points were scored
- Chicago Bears team total 26.5: Over (paid -113); they scored 31
- First-half moneyline: Chicago Bears won the first half (paid -112)
- Atlanta Falcons team total 26.5: Under (paid -120); they scored 23
- First-half spread: Chicago Bears -0.5 covered (paid +102)
Chicago Bears vs. Atlanta Falcons odds: sportsbook value and line movement
The moneyline closed at Chicago Bears -115 and Atlanta Falcons +33, implying a 42% win probability for Chicago after vig removal. The bookmaker's vig on the moneyline was 28.7%. A $100 wager on Chicago at -115 returned $86.96 profit. The closing spread remained Chicago Bears -1.5, and the total slipped from 52.5 to 51.5.
Chicago Bears and Atlanta Falcons betting trends: 2026 season
Chicago Bears are 4–2 overall with a 2–1 record at home and 2–1 away. They are 4–2 against the spread in six games and have gone under the total in four of six contests. Their last five results: W, L, W, W, L.
Atlanta Falcons sit at 2–4 overall, 0–3 at home and 2–1 away. They are 2–4 against the spread in six games and have hit the over in four of six total lines. Their recent five outcomes: L, L, W, W, L. They are on a two-game losing streak.
What's next for Chicago Bears and Atlanta Falcons?
Chicago hosts New England Patriots on Thursday, October 22. Atlanta welcomes San Francisco 49ers at home on Sunday, October 25.