NCAAF Slate Analysis — Wednesday, October 14, 2026
Wednesday, October 14, 2026 · NCAAF
These games have been played. Picks and prices, where shown, are AiQ's from before each game started. See how they finished in the NCAAF recaps.
The NCAAF slate for Wednesday, October 14, 2026 has 2 games, the first at 6:30 PM CT. AiQ has a moneyline pick on all 2. None of AiQ's picks on this slate has a price on record above fair value. Each price is the one AiQ valued the pick at when it last priced the game.
Every game
Kennesaw State Owls at Missouri State Bears
6:30 PM CT at Robert W. Plaster Stadium. Averaged over the outcomes the betting lines imply, the projected score is Kennesaw State Owls 28, Missouri State Bears 26. That is an average, not a pick.
The Kennesaw State Owls have won 1 of their 5 games this season, losing the last four. The Missouri State Bears have won 1 of their 5 games this season, losing the last three.
Matchups to watch.
- Weakness against weakness in scoring. The Kennesaw State Owls averaged 22.6 points per game this season, tied for the 30th fewest of 138 FBS teams, and the Missouri State Bears allowed 32.4 points per game, the 17th most.
- Moneyline: The betting market, with the margin removed, gives Kennesaw State Owls a 55.8% chance to beat Missouri State Bears. AiQ's moneyline pick is the side the consensus favors. The best price, -137 at FanDuel, is priced below the fair price of -126 (−3.5% value).
- Total: The betting market, with the margin removed, puts the over 52.5 points at 49.8% and the under at 50.2%. That is near a coin flip, and AiQ's read is the market's own, so AiQ has no edge on the total. AiQ's projected total, 53.1 points, sits on the 52.5 line.
- Spread: The betting market, with the margin removed, gives Kennesaw State Owls -2.5 a 50.6% chance to cover and Missouri State Bears +2.5 49.4%. That is near a coin flip, and AiQ's read is the market's own, so AiQ has no edge on the spread.
Trends in play.
Recent results against the spread back the Kennesaw State Owls. The Kennesaw State Owls covered the spread in 8 of their last 10 games.
Western Kentucky Hilltoppers at Sam Houston Bearkats
7:00 PM CT at Elliott T. Bowers Stadium. Averaged over the outcomes the betting lines imply, the projected score is Western Kentucky Hilltoppers 27, Sam Houston Bearkats 27. That is an average, not a pick.
The Western Kentucky Hilltoppers have won 2 of their 6 games this season. The Sam Houston Bearkats have won 1 of their 5 games this season.
Matchups to watch.
- Weakness against weakness on the ground. The Sam Houston Bearkats averaged 101.0 rushing yards per game this season, the 9th fewest of 138 FBS teams, and the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers allowed 204.0 rushing yards per game, the 10th most.
- Moneyline: The betting market, with the margin removed, gives Western Kentucky Hilltoppers a 50.6% chance to beat Sam Houston Bearkats. AiQ's moneyline pick is the side the consensus favors, here by less than a point. The price on record, -112, is priced below the fair price of -103 (−4.2% value).
- Total: The betting market, with the margin removed, puts the over 53.5 points at 49.7% and the under at 50.3%. That is near a coin flip, and AiQ's read is the market's own, so AiQ has no edge on the total. AiQ's projected total, 54.3 points, sits on the 53.5 line.
- Spread: The betting market, with the margin removed, gives Western Kentucky Hilltoppers -1 a 49.8% chance to cover and Sam Houston Bearkats +1 50.2%. That is near a coin flip, and AiQ's read is the market's own, so AiQ has no edge on the spread.
These come from the closing lines of this season and last. They are context, not the reason for AiQ's picks, and the books price them in.