Western Kentucky Hilltoppers defeat Sam Houston Bearkats 16-3: Recap, Betting Results & AiQ Picks
Wed, Oct 14, 2026 · NCAAF · Western Kentucky Hilltoppers 16, Sam Houston Bearkats 3
Western Kentucky Hilltoppers defeated Sam Houston Bearkats 16-3, finishing under the 53.5 total.
Western Kentucky Hilltoppers vs. Sam Houston Bearkats final score and game recap
Western Kentucky opened with a touchdown to lead 7-0 after the first quarter. Sam Houston answered with a field goal in the second, but Western Kentucky added three more points before halftime to take a 10-3 lead into the break. A third-quarter field goal extended the margin to 13-3, and a fourth-quarter field goal capped the scoring at 16-3.
Brock Glenn ran the Western Kentucky offense, completing 14 of 30 passes for 127 yards and one touchdown while carrying the ball 22 times for 54 yards. For Sam Houston, MJ Dowdy rushed 14 times for 55 yards and Chris Reed caught three passes for 51 yards, but neither could generate offensive momentum beyond a single field goal.
Who covered the spread in Western Kentucky Hilltoppers vs. Sam Houston Bearkats?
Western Kentucky Hilltoppers covered the -1.5 spread as the favorite, winning by 13 points. The line did not move from open to close, with Sam Houston listed at +1.5 throughout.
Did Western Kentucky Hilltoppers vs. Sam Houston Bearkats go over or under the total?
The game finished under 53.5, with a combined 19 points. The total opened at 52 and moved up 1.5 points to 53.5, but the low-scoring affair fell 34.5 points short of the closing line.
How did AiQ's Western Kentucky Hilltoppers vs. Sam Houston Bearkats predictions do?
AiQ finished 8-9 across every graded pick.
- Moneyline: Western Kentucky Hilltoppers at -119 — WIN (+$84.03 on a $100 bet)
- Player props: 7-9 (-$390.94 on $100 per pick at listed prices)
Western Kentucky Hilltoppers vs. Sam Houston Bearkats player prop results
AiQ's player-prop record was 7-9, netting a $390.94 loss on $100 per pick.
- Chris Reed (anytime touchdown) +125 – 0 — LOSS
- Ajay Allen (under 63.5 rushing yards) -116 – 25 — WIN
- Jonathan Stafford Jr. (over 4.5 receptions) -142 – 5 — WIN
- Brock Glenn (anytime touchdown) -190 – 0 — LOSS
- Jonathan Stafford Jr. (over 57.5 receiving yards) -112 – 37 — LOSS
- Grady O'Neill (over 3.5 receptions) -192 – 3 — LOSS
- Alton McCaskill (under 40.5 rushing yards) -112 – 10 — WIN
- Chris Reed (under 3.5 receptions) -172 – 3 — WIN
- Tim Burns Jr. (under 2.5 receptions) -180 – 2 — WIN
- Brock Glenn (under 1.5 passing touchdowns) -144 – 1 — WIN
- Qua'Vez Humphreys (over 1.5 receptions) -110 – 1 — LOSS
- Ajay Allen (anytime touchdown) -165 – 0 — LOSS
- 4 additional picks not listed, included in the 7-9 tally.
Western Kentucky Hilltoppers vs. Sam Houston Bearkats game prop results: team totals, first half and first quarter
- Western Kentucky Hilltoppers team total 27.5: Under (paid -122); they scored 16.
- Sam Houston Bearkats team total 26.5: Under (paid -102); they scored 3.
- First-half total 26.5: Under (paid -105); 13 points were scored.
- First-half moneyline: Western Kentucky Hilltoppers won the first half (paid -118).
- First-quarter total 10.5: Under (paid -135); 7 points were scored.
- First-half spread: Western Kentucky Hilltoppers -0.5 covered (paid +105).
- First-quarter moneyline: Western Kentucky Hilltoppers won the first quarter (paid -115).
Western Kentucky Hilltoppers vs. Sam Houston Bearkats odds: sportsbook value and line movement
The closing moneyline had Western Kentucky Hilltoppers at -119 and Sam Houston Bearkats at +33. Removing the vig, the implied win probability was 42% for the Hilltoppers and 58% for the Bearkats, with a bookmaker margin of 29.5%. A $100 wager on the Hilltoppers paid $84.03. AiQ's internal estimate pegged the Hilltoppers at 51% to win, matching the market's vig-free probability. However, AiQ graded the -119 price as negative-EV at -4.2% when adjusted to -112, meaning the side was liked but the price was not advantageous. The spread remained flat at -1.5, and the total moved up 1.5 points from 52 to 53.5.
Western Kentucky Hilltoppers and Sam Houston Bearkats betting trends: 2026 season
Western Kentucky Hilltoppers are 3-4 overall, 2-0 at home and 1-4 away or neutral. In six games with a recorded spread they are 3-3 against the spread, and in six games with a total they are 2-4 (2 overs, 4 unders). They have won two straight games.
Sam Houston Bearkats sit at 1-5 overall, 1-2 at home and 0-3 away or neutral. In five games with a spread they are 3-2 against the spread, and in five games with a total they are 1-4 (1 over, 4 unders). They are on a three-game losing streak.
What's next for Western Kentucky Hilltoppers and Sam Houston Bearkats?
Western Kentucky Hilltoppers will host Delaware Blue Hens on Tuesday, October 27. Sam Houston Bearkats will host New Mexico State Aggies on Wednesday, October 21.