NBA Slate Analysis — Tuesday, November 10, 2026
Tuesday, November 10, 2026 · NBA
The NBA slate for Tuesday, November 10, 2026 has 6 games, the first at 6:30 PM CT. AiQ has a moneyline pick on all 6. None of AiQ's picks on this slate has a price on record above fair value. Each price is the one AiQ valued the pick at when it last priced the game.
Every game
Milwaukee Bucks at New York Knicks
6:30 PM CT at Madison Square Garden.
Two teams heading in opposite directions meet here. The Milwaukee Bucks have won 1 of their 10 games this season, losing the last six. The New York Knicks have won 5 of their 9 games this season, winning the last three. When these teams last met, on February 27, 2026, the New York Knicks won 127-98 on the road.
Matchups to watch.
- An uphill climb in scoring. The Milwaukee Bucks averaged 108.4 points per game this season, the 6th fewest in the NBA, and the New York Knicks allowed 104.2 points per game, tied for the 2nd fewest.
- Weakness against weakness in scoring. The New York Knicks averaged 109.9 points per game this season, the 8th fewest in the NBA, and the Milwaukee Bucks allowed 121.6 points per game, the 3rd most.
- Moneyline: AiQ gives New York Knicks a 92% confidence rating to beat Milwaukee Bucks, its own model's number rather than a market price. Calibrated against the market and graded results, that is a 90.5% chance; the betting market, with the margin removed, has 90.6%. The price on record, -1100, is priced below the fair price of -949 (−1.3% value).
- Total: AiQ gives the over 219.5 points a 58% confidence rating, its own model's number rather than a market price. Calibrated against the market and graded results, that is a 51.5% chance; the betting market, with the margin removed, has 50.8%. The best price, -113 at DraftKings, is priced below the fair price of -106 (−2.9% value).
- Spread: AiQ gives New York Knicks -15.5 a 60% confidence rating to cover, its own model's number rather than a market price. Calibrated against the market and graded results, that is a 48.8% chance; the betting market, with the margin removed, has 50.0%. The best price, -108 at FanDuel, is priced below the fair price of +105 (−6.0% value).
Trends in play.
Recent totals lean under. The New York Knicks went under the total in 8 of their last 10 games.
Recent results against the spread back the New York Knicks. The Milwaukee Bucks failed to cover the spread in 7 of their last 10 games.
Boston Celtics at Philadelphia 76ers
7:00 PM CT at Xfinity Mobile Arena.
The Boston Celtics have won 8 of their 10 games this season, winning the last three. The Philadelphia 76ers have won 9 of their 11 games this season, winning four of the last five. When these teams last met, on May 2, 2026, the Philadelphia 76ers won 109-100 on the road.
Matchups to watch.
- Strength against strength from three. The Boston Celtics made 37.6% of their three-point attempts this season, tied for the 6th highest in the NBA, and the Philadelphia 76ers allowed opponents to make 31.6% of their three-point attempts, tied for the 2nd lowest.
- An uphill climb in shooting. The Philadelphia 76ers made 44.6% of their shots this season, the 8th lowest in the NBA, and the Boston Celtics allowed opponents to make 42.3% of their shots, the 2nd lowest.
- Moneyline: AiQ gives Boston Celtics a 66% confidence rating to beat Philadelphia 76ers, its own model's number rather than a market price. Calibrated against the market and graded results, that is a 51.6% chance; the betting market, with the margin removed, has 52.7%. The best price, -116 at FanDuel, is priced below the fair price of -106 (−4.0% value).
- Total: AiQ gives the over 218.5 points a 62% confidence rating, its own model's number rather than a market price. Calibrated against the market and graded results, that is a 51.0% chance; the betting market, with the margin removed, has 49.8%. The best price, -105 at DraftKings, is priced near the fair price of -104 (−0.4% value).
- Spread: AiQ gives Boston Celtics -1.5 a 59% confidence rating to cover, its own model's number rather than a market price. Calibrated against the market and graded results, that is a 48.9% chance; the betting market, with the margin removed, has 50.0%. The price on record, -110, is priced below the fair price of +104 (−6.6% value).
Trends in play.
Everything points under on the total. The last 5 games involving the Boston Celtics went under the total. Of the last 11 meetings between the Philadelphia 76ers and the Boston Celtics, 8 went under the total. The Philadelphia 76ers went under the total in 4 of 5 home games this season.
Recent results against the spread back the Philadelphia 76ers, the underdog here. The Philadelphia 76ers covered the spread in 8 of the last 11 meetings with the Boston Celtics.
LA Clippers at Phoenix Suns
8:00 PM CT at Mortgage Matchup Center.
The LA Clippers have won 2 of their 9 games this season, winning one of the last five. The Phoenix Suns have won 3 of their 9 games this season, winning two of the last five. When these teams last met, on February 1, 2026, the LA Clippers won 117-93 on the road.
- Moneyline: AiQ gives Phoenix Suns a 62% confidence rating to beat LA Clippers, its own model's number rather than a market price. Calibrated against the market and graded results, that is a 62.5% chance; the betting market, with the margin removed, has 62.5%. The price on record, -180, is priced below the fair price of -167 (−2.8% value).
- Total: AiQ gives the over 226.5 points a 57% confidence rating, its own model's number rather than a market price. No book price at this line is confirmed on the record, so no value figure is given.
- Spread: AiQ gives LA Clippers +4.5 a 59% confidence rating to cover, its own model's number rather than a market price. No book price at this line is confirmed on the record, so no value figure is given.
Trends in play.
Recent results against the spread back the LA Clippers, the underdog here. The Phoenix Suns failed to cover the spread in 7 of their last 10 games.
Miami Heat at Utah Jazz
8:00 PM CT at Delta Center.
The Utah Jazz have won 1 of their 10 games this season, losing the last eight. The Miami Heat have won 4 of their 10 games this season, winning three of the last five. When these teams last met, on February 9, 2026, the Utah Jazz won 115-111 on the road.
Matchups to watch.
- Weakness against weakness in scoring. The Utah Jazz averaged 106.2 points per game this season, the 2nd fewest in the NBA, and the Miami Heat allowed 121.1 points per game, the 4th most.
- Moneyline: AiQ gives Miami Heat a 62% confidence rating to beat Utah Jazz, its own model's number rather than a market price. Calibrated against the market and graded results, that is an 80.9% chance; the betting market, with the margin removed, has 79.5%. The best price, -420 at Caesars, is priced near the fair price of -425 (+0.2% value).
- Total: AiQ gives the under 228.5 points a 57% confidence rating, its own model's number rather than a market price. Calibrated against the market and graded results, that is a 50.7% chance; the betting market, with the margin removed, has 50.0%. The price on record, -110, is priced below the fair price of -103 (−3.2% value).
- Spread: AiQ gives Miami Heat -9.5 a 59% confidence rating to cover, its own model's number rather than a market price. Calibrated against the market and graded results, that is a 48.9% chance; the betting market, with the margin removed, has 50.0%. The price on record, -110, is priced below the fair price of +104 (−6.6% value).
Trends in play.
Against the spread, the records pull in opposite directions. The Utah Jazz failed to cover the spread in 9 of their last 10 games. Meanwhile, the Miami Heat failed to cover the spread in 4 straight games.
Recent totals lean under. The Utah Jazz went under the total in 8 of their last 10 games.
Orlando Magic at Sacramento Kings
9:00 PM CT at Golden 1 Center.
The Orlando Magic have won 2 of their 9 games this season, losing the last four. The Sacramento Kings have won 1 of their 10 games this season, losing the last three. When these teams last met, on March 26, 2026, the Orlando Magic won 121-117 at home.
Matchups to watch.
- Weakness against weakness in scoring. The Orlando Magic averaged 107.0 points per game this season, the 4th fewest in the NBA, and the Sacramento Kings allowed 122.4 points per game, the 2nd most.
- Weakness against weakness from three. The Sacramento Kings made 33.5% of their three-point attempts this season, tied for the 8th lowest in the NBA, and the Orlando Magic allowed opponents to make 37.8% of their three-point attempts, the 6th highest.
- Moneyline: AiQ gives Orlando Magic a 59% confidence rating to beat Sacramento Kings, its own model's number rather than a market price. Calibrated against the market and graded results, that is a 69.5% chance; the betting market, with the margin removed, has 68.6%. The best price, -225 at FanDuel, is priced near the fair price of -227 (+0.3% value).
- Total: AiQ gives the under 221.5 points a 55% confidence rating, its own model's number rather than a market price. Calibrated against the market and graded results, that is a 49.6% chance; the betting market, with the margin removed, has 49.0%. The best price, -105 at FanDuel, is priced below the fair price of +102 (−3.2% value).
- Spread: AiQ gives Orlando Magic -5.5 a 58% confidence rating to cover, its own model's number rather than a market price. Calibrated against the market and graded results, that is a 50.3% chance; the betting market, with the margin removed, has 51.2%. The best price, -112 at BetRivers, is priced below the fair price of -101 (−4.7% value).
Trends in play.
Recent results against the spread back the Sacramento Kings, the underdog here. The Orlando Magic failed to cover the spread in 7 of their last 10 games.
Oklahoma City Thunder at Portland Trail Blazers
10:00 PM CT at Moda Center.
The Oklahoma City Thunder have won 8 of their 10 games this season, winning the last four. The Portland Trail Blazers have won 6 of their 9 games this season, winning three of the last five. When these teams last met, on December 31, 2025, the Oklahoma City Thunder won 124-95 at home.
Matchups to watch.
- Strength against strength in scoring. The Portland Trail Blazers averaged 119.3 points per game this season, the 3rd most in the NBA, and the Oklahoma City Thunder allowed 104.2 points per game, tied for the 2nd fewest.
- Moneyline: AiQ gives Oklahoma City Thunder a 62% confidence rating to beat Portland Trail Blazers, its own model's number rather than a market price. Calibrated against the market and graded results, that is a 53.9% chance; the betting market, with the margin removed, has 54.5%. The best price, -122 at FanDuel, is priced below the fair price of -117 (−1.9% value).
- Total: AiQ gives the over 226.5 points a 62% confidence rating, its own model's number rather than a market price. Calibrated against the market and graded results, that is a 51.2% chance; the betting market, with the margin removed, has 50.0%. The best price, -108 at BetRivers, is priced below the fair price of -105 (−1.4% value).
- Spread: AiQ gives Portland Trail Blazers +2.5 a 59% confidence rating to cover, its own model's number rather than a market price. Calibrated against the market and graded results, that is a 50.2% chance; the betting market, with the margin removed, has 51.2%. The price on record, -115, is priced below the fair price of -101 (−6.1% value).
Trends in play.
Recent results against the spread back the Oklahoma City Thunder. The Oklahoma City Thunder covered the spread in 4 straight games.
Recent totals lean under. The Oklahoma City Thunder went under the total in 4 of 5 road games this season.
These come from the closing lines of this season and last. They are context, not the reason for AiQ's picks, and the books price them in.