NBA Slate Analysis — Wednesday, November 4, 2026

Wednesday, November 4, 2026 · NBA

The NBA slate for Wednesday, November 4, 2026 has 14 games, the first at 6:00 PM CT. AiQ has a moneyline pick on all 14. Of AiQ's picks on this slate, 2 have a price on record above fair value. Each price is the one AiQ valued the pick at when it last priced the game.

Best value

• Atlanta Hawks at Washington Wizards: Washington Wizards on the moneyline (+130 at BetRivers, +1.7% value).
• Dallas Mavericks at San Antonio Spurs: Over 227.5 points (-105 at DraftKings, +0.7% value).

Every game

Philadelphia 76ers at Detroit Pistons

6:00 PM CT at Little Caesars Arena.

The Philadelphia 76ers have won 7 of their 8 games this season, winning the last four. The Detroit Pistons have won 6 of their 7 games this season, winning the last three. When these teams last met, on October 25, 2026, the Detroit Pistons won 106-93 on the road. This is their second meeting this season.

Matchups to watch.

• Strength against strength from three. The Detroit Pistons made 38.1% of their three-point attempts this season, the 6th highest in the NBA, and the Philadelphia 76ers allowed opponents to make 31.3% of their three-point attempts, the 6th lowest.

• Moneyline: AiQ gives Detroit Pistons a 62% confidence rating to beat Philadelphia 76ers, its own model's number rather than a market price. Calibrated against the market and graded results, that is a 54.9% chance; the betting market, with the margin removed, has 54.5%. The best price, -124 at FanDuel, is priced below the fair price of -122 (−0.8% value).
• Total: AiQ gives the over 217.5 points a 62% confidence rating, its own model's number rather than a market price. Calibrated against the market and graded results, that is a 51.6% chance; the betting market, with the margin removed, has 50.0%. The price on record, -110, is priced below the fair price of -106 (−1.6% value).
• Spread: AiQ gives Detroit Pistons -2.5 a 59% confidence rating to cover, its own model's number rather than a market price. Calibrated against the market and graded results, that is a 47.4% chance; the betting market, with the margin removed, has 48.6%. The best price, -104 at FanDuel, is priced below the fair price of +111 (−7.1% value).

Trends in play.

Against the spread, the records lean toward the Detroit Pistons. The Detroit Pistons covered the spread in 5 of 5 games as favorites this season. The Detroit Pistons covered the spread in 4 of the last 5 meetings with the Philadelphia 76ers.

Everything points under on the total. Of the last 5 meetings between the Detroit Pistons and the Philadelphia 76ers, 4 went under the total. The Philadelphia 76ers went under the total in 7 of their last 10 games.

Atlanta Hawks at Washington Wizards

6:00 PM CT at Capital One Arena.

The Atlanta Hawks have won 4 of their 8 games this season, winning two of the last five. The Washington Wizards have won 4 of their 7 games this season. When these teams last met, on February 26, 2026, the Atlanta Hawks won 126-96 at home.

Matchups to watch.

• An uphill climb in shooting. The Atlanta Hawks made 44.5% of their shots this season, the 8th lowest in the NBA, and the Washington Wizards allowed opponents to make 42.4% of their shots, the 2nd lowest.
• An uphill climb from three. The Washington Wizards made 30.2% of their three-point attempts this season, the 3rd lowest in the NBA, and the Atlanta Hawks allowed opponents to make 30.9% of their three-point attempts, the 3rd lowest.

• Moneyline: AiQ gives Washington Wizards a 62% confidence rating to beat Atlanta Hawks, its own model's number rather than a market price. Calibrated against the market and graded results, that is a 44.2% chance; the betting market, with the margin removed, has 43.3%. The best price, +130 at BetRivers, is +1.7% value against the fair price of +126.
• Total: AiQ gives the over 232.5 points a 62% confidence rating, its own model's number rather than a market price. Calibrated against the market and graded results, that is a 51.6% chance; the betting market, with the margin removed, has 50.0%. The price on record, -110, is priced below the fair price of -106 (−1.6% value).
• Spread: AiQ gives Washington Wizards +2.5 a 59% confidence rating to cover, its own model's number rather than a market price. Calibrated against the market and graded results, that is a 50.2% chance; the betting market, with the margin removed, has 51.2%. The best price, -110 at FanDuel, is priced below the fair price of -101 (−4.1% value).

Trends in play.

Recent totals lean under. The last 6 games involving the Washington Wizards went under the total.

Against the spread, the records pull in opposite directions. The Atlanta Hawks failed to cover the spread in 8 of their last 10 games. Meanwhile, the Atlanta Hawks covered the spread in 3 of the last 4 meetings with the Washington Wizards.

Milwaukee Bucks at Boston Celtics

6:30 PM CT at TD Garden.

The Milwaukee Bucks have won 1 of their 7 games this season, losing the last three. The Boston Celtics have won 5 of their 7 games this season. When these teams last met, on April 3, 2026, the Boston Celtics won 133-101 on the road.

Matchups to watch.

• An uphill climb in shooting. The Milwaukee Bucks made 43.3% of their shots this season, the 6th lowest in the NBA, and the Boston Celtics allowed opponents to make 44.2% of their shots, tied for the 8th lowest.

• Moneyline: AiQ gives Boston Celtics a 66% confidence rating to beat Milwaukee Bucks, its own model's number rather than a market price. Calibrated against the market and graded results, that is an 82.8% chance; the betting market, with the margin removed, has 83.7%. The best price, -490 at FanDuel, is priced near the fair price of -482 (−0.3% value).
• Total: AiQ gives the over 223.5 points a 62% confidence rating, its own model's number rather than a market price. Calibrated against the market and graded results, that is a 52.5% chance; the betting market, with the margin removed, has 51.0%. The best price, -112 at BetRivers, is priced below the fair price of -110 (−0.7% value).
• Spread: AiQ gives Boston Celtics -11.5 a 59% confidence rating to cover, its own model's number rather than a market price. Calibrated against the market and graded results, that is a 48.9% chance; the betting market, with the margin removed, has 50.0%. The best price, -106 at FanDuel, is priced below the fair price of +104 (−4.9% value).

Trends in play.

The total pulls both ways. The Milwaukee Bucks went over the total in 8 of their last 10 games. Meanwhile, of the last 4 meetings between the Boston Celtics and the Milwaukee Bucks, 3 went under the total.

Against the spread, the records lean toward the Boston Celtics. The Milwaukee Bucks failed to cover the spread in 7 of their last 10 games. The Boston Celtics covered the spread in 3 of the last 4 meetings with the Milwaukee Bucks.

Charlotte Hornets at Brooklyn Nets

6:30 PM CT at Barclays Center.

The Charlotte Hornets have won 3 of their 8 games this season, losing the last four. The Brooklyn Nets have won 1 of their 7 games this season. When these teams last met, on October 21, 2026, the Charlotte Hornets won 110-103 on the road. This is their second meeting this season.

• Moneyline: AiQ gives Charlotte Hornets a 59% confidence rating to beat Brooklyn Nets, its own model's number rather than a market price. Calibrated against the market and graded results, that is a 59.9% chance; the betting market, with the margin removed, has 59.9%. The best price, -158 at FanDuel, is priced below the fair price of -149 (−2.2% value).
• Total: AiQ gives the over 213.5 points a 62% confidence rating, its own model's number rather than a market price. Calibrated against the market and graded results, that is a 51.6% chance; the betting market, with the margin removed, has 50.0%. The best price, -108 at FanDuel, is priced below the fair price of -106 (−0.7% value).
• Spread: AiQ gives Brooklyn Nets +3.5 a 59% confidence rating to cover, its own model's number rather than a market price. Calibrated against the market and graded results, that is a 48.9% chance; the betting market, with the margin removed, has 50.0%. The price on record, -110, is priced below the fair price of +104 (−6.6% value).

Trends in play.

Recent results against the spread back the Brooklyn Nets, the underdog here. The Charlotte Hornets failed to cover the spread in 4 straight games.

Recent totals lean under. The Charlotte Hornets went under the total in 7 of their last 10 games.

Chicago Bulls at New York Knicks

6:30 PM CT at Madison Square Garden.

The Chicago Bulls have won 1 of their 7 games this season, losing the last five. The New York Knicks have won 3 of their 7 games this season. When these teams last met, on October 28, 2026, the New York Knicks won 133-127 on the road. This is their second meeting this season.

Matchups to watch.

• An uphill climb in shooting. The Chicago Bulls made 41.6% of their shots this season, the 2nd lowest in the NBA, and the New York Knicks allowed opponents to make 44.2% of their shots, tied for the 8th lowest.
• Weakness against weakness in scoring. The New York Knicks averaged 106.4 points per game this season, the 4th fewest in the NBA, and the Chicago Bulls allowed 128.9 points per game, the most.

• Moneyline: AiQ gives New York Knicks a 62% confidence rating to beat Chicago Bulls, its own model's number rather than a market price. Calibrated against the market and graded results, that is an 83.3% chance; the betting market, with the margin removed, has 84.4%. The price on record, -597, is priced below the fair price of -497 (−2.8% value).
• Total: AiQ gives the under 233.5 points a 57% confidence rating, its own model's number rather than a market price. Calibrated against the market and graded results, that is a 49.9% chance; the betting market, with the margin removed, has 48.8%. The price on record, -105, is priced below the fair price of +100 (−2.6% value).
• Spread: AiQ gives New York Knicks -11.5 a 59% confidence rating to cover, its own model's number rather than a market price. Calibrated against the market and graded results, that is a 50.2% chance; the betting market, with the margin removed, has 51.2%. The price on record, -115, is priced below the fair price of -101 (−6.1% value).

Trends in play.

Recent results against the spread back the Chicago Bulls, the underdog here. The New York Knicks failed to cover the spread in 8 of their last 10 games.

Recent totals lean under. The New York Knicks went under the total in 8 of their last 10 games.

Indiana Pacers at Memphis Grizzlies

7:00 PM CT at FedExForum.

The Indiana Pacers have won 2 of their 8 games this season, losing the last five. The Memphis Grizzlies have won 6 of their 7 games this season. When these teams last met, on March 1, 2026, the Memphis Grizzlies won 125-106 on the road.

Matchups to watch.

• An uphill climb from three. The Indiana Pacers made 32.9% of their three-point attempts this season, the 8th lowest in the NBA, and the Memphis Grizzlies allowed opponents to make 31.2% of their three-point attempts, the 5th lowest.
• Mismatch from three. The Memphis Grizzlies made 42.1% of their three-point attempts this season, the highest in the NBA, and the Indiana Pacers allowed opponents to make 37.4% of their three-point attempts, the 5th highest.

• Moneyline: AiQ gives Memphis Grizzlies a 66% confidence rating to beat Indiana Pacers, its own model's number rather than a market price. Calibrated against the market and graded results, that is a 69.5% chance; the betting market, with the margin removed, has 69.7%. The best price, -245 at Fanatics, is priced below the fair price of -228 (−2.1% value).
• Total: AiQ gives the over 229.5 points a 62% confidence rating, its own model's number rather than a market price. Calibrated against the market and graded results, that is a 51.6% chance; the betting market, with the margin removed, has 50.0%. The best price, -108 at DraftKings, is priced below the fair price of -106 (−0.7% value).
• Spread: AiQ gives Memphis Grizzlies -6.5 a 60% confidence rating to cover, its own model's number rather than a market price. Calibrated against the market and graded results, that is a 48.8% chance; the betting market, with the margin removed, has 50.0%. The best price, -106 at FanDuel, is priced below the fair price of +105 (−5.2% value).

Trends in play.

Recent results against the spread back the Memphis Grizzlies. The Memphis Grizzlies covered the spread in 7 of their last 10 games.

Utah Jazz at New Orleans Pelicans

7:00 PM CT at Smoothie King Center.

Two teams heading in opposite directions meet here. The Utah Jazz have won 1 of their 7 games this season, losing the last five. The New Orleans Pelicans have won 3 of their 7 games this season, winning the last three. When these teams last met, on October 23, 2026, the Utah Jazz won 120-119 at home. This is their second meeting this season.

Matchups to watch.

• Weakness against weakness in shooting. The Utah Jazz made 42.8% of their shots this season, the 5th lowest in the NBA, and the New Orleans Pelicans allowed opponents to make 48.3% of their shots, tied for the 5th highest.
• Mismatch in scoring. The New Orleans Pelicans averaged 121.9 points per game this season, the 3rd most in the NBA, and the Utah Jazz allowed 118.9 points per game, the 7th most.

• Moneyline: AiQ gives New Orleans Pelicans a 62% confidence rating to beat Utah Jazz, its own model's number rather than a market price. Calibrated against the market and graded results, that is a 66.5% chance; the betting market, with the margin removed, has 66.7%. The best price, -200 at BetRivers, is priced near the fair price of -198 (−0.3% value).
• Total: AiQ gives the over 234.5 points a 62% confidence rating, its own model's number rather than a market price. Calibrated against the market and graded results, that is a 51.6% chance; the betting market, with the margin removed, has 50.0%. The price on record, -110, is priced below the fair price of -106 (−1.6% value).
• Spread: AiQ gives New Orleans Pelicans -5.5 a 59% confidence rating to cover, its own model's number rather than a market price. Calibrated against the market and graded results, that is a 48.9% chance; the betting market, with the margin removed, has 50.0%. The best price, -105 at FanDuel, is priced below the fair price of +104 (−4.5% value).

Trends in play.

Against the spread, the records lean toward the New Orleans Pelicans. The New Orleans Pelicans covered the spread in each of the last 4 meetings with the Utah Jazz. The Utah Jazz failed to cover the spread in 8 of their last 10 games.

The total pulls both ways. The last 4 games involving the Utah Jazz went under the total. Meanwhile, the New Orleans Pelicans went over the total in 7 of their last 10 games.

Cleveland Cavaliers at Oklahoma City Thunder

7:00 PM CT at Paycom Center.

The Cleveland Cavaliers have won 4 of their 7 games this season. The Oklahoma City Thunder have won 5 of their 7 games this season. When these teams last met, on November 2, 2026, the Oklahoma City Thunder won 117-112 on the road. This is their second meeting this season.

Matchups to watch.

• Strength against strength in scoring. The Cleveland Cavaliers averaged 119.7 points per game this season, the 5th most in the NBA, and the Oklahoma City Thunder allowed 107.7 points per game, the 7th fewest.
• Weakness against weakness in scoring. The Oklahoma City Thunder averaged 108.0 points per game this season, the 6th fewest in the NBA, and the Cleveland Cavaliers allowed 116.1 points per game, the 8th most.

• Moneyline: AiQ gives Cleveland Cavaliers a 59% confidence rating to beat Oklahoma City Thunder, its own model's number rather than a market price. Calibrated against the market and graded results, that is a 45.3% chance; the betting market, with the margin removed, has 44.5%. The best price, +118 at FanDuel, is priced below the fair price of +121 (−1.3% value).
• Total: AiQ gives the under 228.5 points a 57% confidence rating, its own model's number rather than a market price. Calibrated against the market and graded results, that is a 51.7% chance; the betting market, with the margin removed, has 50.9%. The best price, -114 at BetRivers, is priced below the fair price of -107 (−2.9% value).
• Spread: AiQ gives Cleveland Cavaliers +2.5 a 57% confidence rating to cover, its own model's number rather than a market price. Calibrated against the market and graded results, that is a 50.5% chance; the betting market, with the margin removed, has 51.2%. The best price, -110 at FanDuel, is priced below the fair price of -102 (−3.7% value).

Trends in play.

Against the spread, the records lean toward the Oklahoma City Thunder. The Oklahoma City Thunder covered the spread in each of the last 3 meetings with the Cleveland Cavaliers. The Cleveland Cavaliers failed to cover the spread in 8 of their last 10 games.

Recent totals lean under. The Oklahoma City Thunder went under the total in 7 of their last 10 games.

Minnesota Timberwolves at Houston Rockets

7:30 PM CT at Toyota Center (Houston).

The Minnesota Timberwolves have won 5 of their 8 games this season, winning two of the last five. The Houston Rockets have won 7 of their 8 games this season, winning four of the last five. When these teams last met, on April 10, 2026, the Minnesota Timberwolves won 136-132 on the road.

Matchups to watch.

• Strength against strength from three. The Minnesota Timberwolves made 37.5% of their three-point attempts this season, the 7th highest in the NBA, and the Houston Rockets allowed opponents to make 29.9% of their three-point attempts, the 2nd lowest.
• Strength against strength from three. The Houston Rockets made 39.1% of their three-point attempts this season, the 3rd highest in the NBA, and the Minnesota Timberwolves allowed opponents to make 31.1% of their three-point attempts, the 4th lowest.

• Moneyline: AiQ gives Houston Rockets a 62% confidence rating to beat Minnesota Timberwolves, its own model's number rather than a market price. Calibrated against the market and graded results, that is a 73.5% chance; the betting market, with the margin removed, has 74.1%. The best price, -290 at FanDuel, is priced below the fair price of -277 (−1.2% value).
• Total: AiQ gives the under 219.5 points a 58% confidence rating, its own model's number rather than a market price. Calibrated against the market and graded results, that is a 50.2% chance; the betting market, with the margin removed, has 49.1%. The best price, -107 at DraftKings, is priced below the fair price of -101 (−2.8% value).
• Spread: AiQ gives Houston Rockets -8.5 a 59% confidence rating to cover, its own model's number rather than a market price. Calibrated against the market and graded results, that is a 47.6% chance; the betting market, with the margin removed, has 48.8%. The price on record, -105, is priced below the fair price of +110 (−7.0% value).

Trends in play.

Against the spread, the records pull in opposite directions. The Houston Rockets covered the spread in 8 of their last 10 games. Meanwhile, the Minnesota Timberwolves covered the spread in 7 of their last 10 games.

Toronto Raptors at Denver Nuggets

8:00 PM CT at Ball Arena.

The Toronto Raptors have won 4 of their 7 games this season. The Denver Nuggets have won 3 of their 6 games this season. When these teams last met, on March 20, 2026, the Denver Nuggets won 121-115 at home.

• Moneyline: AiQ gives Toronto Raptors a 59% confidence rating to beat Denver Nuggets, its own model's number rather than a market price. Calibrated against the market and graded results, that is a 37.2% chance; the betting market, with the margin removed, has 36.1%. The best price, +164 at FanDuel, is priced below the fair price of +169 (−1.7% value).
• Total: AiQ gives the under 230.5 points a 57% confidence rating, its own model's number rather than a market price. Calibrated against the market and graded results, that is a 49.9% chance; the betting market, with the margin removed, has 48.8%. The best price, -103 at BetRivers, is priced below the fair price of +100 (−1.7% value).
• Spread: AiQ gives Toronto Raptors +4.5 a 59% confidence rating to cover, its own model's number rather than a market price. Calibrated against the market and graded results, that is a 48.9% chance; the betting market, with the margin removed, has 50.0%. The best price, -104 at FanDuel, is priced below the fair price of +104 (−4.0% value).

Trends in play.

Recent totals lean over. The last 4 games involving the Toronto Raptors went over the total.

Recent results against the spread back the Toronto Raptors, the underdog here. The Denver Nuggets failed to cover the spread in 7 of their last 10 games.

Portland Trail Blazers at Phoenix Suns

8:00 PM CT at Mortgage Matchup Center.

The Phoenix Suns have won 1 of their 5 games this season, losing the last three. The Portland Trail Blazers have won 5 of their 6 games this season. When these teams last met, on October 21, 2026, the Portland Trail Blazers won 124-83 at home. This is their second meeting this season.

Matchups to watch.

• Mismatch in scoring. The Portland Trail Blazers averaged 120.2 points per game this season, the 4th most in the NBA, and the Phoenix Suns allowed 122.8 points per game, the 5th most.

• Moneyline: AiQ gives Portland Trail Blazers a 62% confidence rating to beat Phoenix Suns, its own model's number rather than a market price. Calibrated against the market and graded results, that is a 59.0% chance; the betting market, with the margin removed, has 58.8%. The best price, -144 at FanDuel, is priced near the fair price of -144 (−0.0% value).
• Total: AiQ gives the under 227.5 points a 57% confidence rating, its own model's number rather than a market price. Calibrated against the market and graded results, that is a 50.9% chance; the betting market, with the margin removed, has 50.0%. The best price, -108 at DraftKings, is priced below the fair price of -104 (−1.9% value).
• Spread: AiQ gives Portland Trail Blazers -3.5 a 59% confidence rating to cover, its own model's number rather than a market price. Calibrated against the market and graded results, that is a 48.2% chance; the betting market, with the margin removed, has 49.3%. The best price, -105 at FanDuel, is priced below the fair price of +108 (−6.0% value).

Trends in play.

Recent results against the spread back the Portland Trail Blazers. The Phoenix Suns failed to cover the spread in 5 straight games.

The total pulls both ways. The last 4 games involving the Phoenix Suns went over the total. Meanwhile, the Portland Trail Blazers went under the total in 7 of their last 10 games.

Dallas Mavericks at San Antonio Spurs

8:30 PM CT at Frost Bank Center.

The San Antonio Spurs have won 5 of their 7 games this season, winning the last five. The Dallas Mavericks have won 4 of their 7 games this season. When these teams last met, on October 24, 2026, the San Antonio Spurs won 122-106 on the road. This is their second meeting this season.

Matchups to watch.

• Strength against strength in shooting. The Dallas Mavericks made 48.3% of their shots this season, the 4th highest in the NBA, and the San Antonio Spurs allowed opponents to make 44.0% of their shots, the 7th lowest.

• Moneyline: AiQ gives San Antonio Spurs a 62% confidence rating to beat Dallas Mavericks, its own model's number rather than a market price. Calibrated against the market and graded results, that is an 82.8% chance; the betting market, with the margin removed, has 83.9%. The best price, -490 at FanDuel, is priced near the fair price of -481 (−0.3% value).
• Total: AiQ gives the over 227.5 points a 62% confidence rating, its own model's number rather than a market price. Calibrated against the market and graded results, that is a 51.6% chance; the betting market, with the margin removed, has 50.0%. The best price, -105 at DraftKings, is +0.7% value against the fair price of -106.
• Spread: AiQ gives San Antonio Spurs -11.5 a 59% confidence rating to cover, its own model's number rather than a market price. Calibrated against the market and graded results, that is a 48.7% chance; the betting market, with the margin removed, has 49.8%. The best price, -105 at Fanatics, is priced below the fair price of +106 (−5.0% value).

Trends in play.

Recent results against the spread back the San Antonio Spurs. The San Antonio Spurs covered the spread in each of the last 5 meetings with the Dallas Mavericks.

Recent totals lean under. The San Antonio Spurs went under the total in 7 of their last 10 games.

Los Angeles Lakers at Sacramento Kings

9:00 PM CT at Golden 1 Center.

The Los Angeles Lakers have won 6 of their 8 games this season, winning three of the last five. The Sacramento Kings have won 1 of their 7 games this season. When these teams last met, on March 1, 2026, the Los Angeles Lakers won 128-104 at home.

Matchups to watch.

• Mismatch in shooting. The Los Angeles Lakers made 52.0% of their shots this season, the highest in the NBA, and the Sacramento Kings allowed opponents to make 50.5% of their shots, the highest.
• Weakness against weakness from three. The Sacramento Kings made 32.7% of their three-point attempts this season, the 7th lowest in the NBA, and the Los Angeles Lakers allowed opponents to make 37.0% of their three-point attempts, tied for the 7th highest.

• Moneyline: AiQ gives Los Angeles Lakers a 62% confidence rating to beat Sacramento Kings, its own model's number rather than a market price. Calibrated against the market and graded results, that is an 82.0% chance; the betting market, with the margin removed, has 83.1%. The best price, -490 at FanDuel, is priced below the fair price of -456 (−1.3% value).
• Total: AiQ gives the over 235.5 points a 57% confidence rating, its own model's number rather than a market price. Calibrated against the market and graded results, that is a 50.0% chance; the betting market, with the margin removed, has 49.0%. The best price, -105 at BetMGM, is priced below the fair price of +100 (−2.4% value).
• Spread: AiQ gives Los Angeles Lakers -11.5 a 59% confidence rating to cover, its own model's number rather than a market price. Calibrated against the market and graded results, that is a 48.4% chance; the betting market, with the margin removed, has 49.5%. The best price, -106 at DraftKings, is priced below the fair price of +107 (−5.9% value).

Trends in play.

Recent totals lean over. The Los Angeles Lakers went over the total in 7 of their last 10 games.

Against the spread, the records lean toward the Los Angeles Lakers. The Los Angeles Lakers covered the spread in 3 of the last 4 meetings with the Sacramento Kings. The Sacramento Kings failed to cover the spread in 5 of 7 games as underdogs this season.

Miami Heat at LA Clippers

9:30 PM CT at Intuit Dome.

The LA Clippers have won 1 of their 7 games this season, losing the last six. The Miami Heat have won 2 of their 7 games this season. When these teams last met, on December 1, 2025, the Miami Heat won 140-123 at home.

Matchups to watch.

• Mismatch in shooting. The Miami Heat made 47.8% of their shots this season, the 5th highest in the NBA, and the LA Clippers allowed opponents to make 49.8% of their shots, the 2nd highest.
• Mismatch from three. The LA Clippers made 38.4% of their three-point attempts this season, the 5th highest in the NBA, and the Miami Heat allowed opponents to make 41.0% of their three-point attempts, the 2nd highest.

• Moneyline: AiQ gives Miami Heat a 62% confidence rating to beat LA Clippers, its own model's number rather than a market price. Calibrated against the market and graded results, that is a 64.9% chance; the betting market, with the margin removed, has 65.0%. The price on record, -201, is priced below the fair price of -185 (−2.9% value).
• Total: AiQ gives the over 234.5 points a 57% confidence rating, its own model's number rather than a market price. No book price at this line is confirmed on the record, so no value figure is given.
• Spread: AiQ gives Miami Heat -4.5 a 60% confidence rating to cover, its own model's number rather than a market price. No book price at this line is confirmed on the record, so no value figure is given.

Trends in play.

Recent results against the spread back the Miami Heat. The LA Clippers failed to cover the spread in 4 straight games.

Recent totals lean over. The Miami Heat went over the total in 7 of their last 10 games.

These come from the closing lines of this season and last. They are context, not the reason for AiQ's picks, and the books price them in.

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