Dallas Mavericks vs San Antonio Spurs Prediction, Picks & Odds — Nov 4

Wed, Nov 4, 9:30 PM ET · Frost Bank Center · NBA

Open the game card for live odds, every market and the full prediction.

Dallas Mavericks at San Antonio Spurs is on Wednesday, November 4, 2026, at Frost Bank Center.

The story

The San Antonio Spurs have won 5 of their 7 games this season, winning the last five. The Dallas Mavericks have won 4 of their 7 games this season. When these teams last met, on October 24, 2026, the San Antonio Spurs won 122-106 on the road. This is their second meeting this season.

Moneyline

AiQ gives San Antonio Spurs a 62% confidence rating to beat Dallas Mavericks, its own model's number rather than a market price. Calibrated against the market and graded results, that is an 85.1% chance; the betting market, with the margin removed, has 86.3%. The best price, -650 at FanDuel, is priced below the fair price of -569 (−1.8% value).

Total

AiQ gives the over 229.5 points a 58% confidence rating, its own model's number rather than a market price. Calibrated against the market and graded results, that is a 51.0% chance; the betting market, with the margin removed, has 50.0%. The best price, -106 at FanDuel, is priced below the fair price of -104 (−0.8% value).

Spread

AiQ gives Dallas Mavericks +12.5 a 58% confidence rating to cover, its own model's number rather than a market price. Calibrated against the market and graded results, that is a 49.0% chance; the betting market, with the margin removed, has 50.0%. The best price, -108 at FanDuel, is priced below the fair price of +104 (−5.5% value).

Trends in play

Recent results against the spread back the San Antonio Spurs. The San Antonio Spurs covered the spread in each of the last 5 meetings with the Dallas Mavericks.

Recent totals lean under. The San Antonio Spurs went under the total in 7 of their last 10 games.

These come from the closing lines of this season and last. They are context, not the reason for AiQ's picks, and the books price them in.