EPL Slate Analysis — Saturday, November 7, 2026
Saturday, November 7, 2026 · Premier League
The EPL slate for Saturday, November 7, 2026 has 4 matchs, the first at 6:30 AM CT. AiQ has a moneyline pick on all 4. None of AiQ's picks on this slate has a price on record above fair value. Each price is the one AiQ valued the pick at when it last priced the game.
Every match
Tottenham Hotspur vs Leeds United
6:30 AM CT at Elland Road.
Tottenham Hotspur have won 3, drawn 3 and lost 3 of their 9 matches this season, winning the last three. Leeds United have won 2, drawn 5 and lost 2 of their 9 matches this season, without a win in the last five. When these teams last met, on May 11, 2026, they drew 1-1.
- Moneyline: AiQ gives a draw between Tottenham Hotspur and Leeds United a 57% confidence rating, its own model's number rather than a market price. Calibrated against the market and graded results, that is a 28.1% chance; the betting market, with the margin removed, has 28.0%. The price on record, +240, is priced below the fair price of +255 (−4.3% value).
- Total goals: AiQ gives the under 2.5 goals a 52% confidence rating, its own model's number rather than a market price. Calibrated against the market and graded results, that is a 51.7% chance; the betting market, with the margin removed, has 51.7%. The best price, -118 at BetRivers, is priced below the fair price of -107 (−4.6% value).
Hull City vs Arsenal
9:00 AM CT at Emirates Stadium.
Arsenal have won 11, drawn 1 and lost 1 of their 13 matches this season, winning the last three. Hull City have won 2, drawn 5 and lost 2 of their 9 matches this season, without a win in the last five. Hull City come in with more rest: their last match was on October 31, seven days before this one, while Arsenal played three days before.
- Moneyline: AiQ gives Arsenal a 60% confidence rating to beat Hull City, its own model's number rather than a market price. Calibrated against the market and graded results, that is an 84.6% chance; the betting market, with the margin removed, has 84.7%. The best price, -590 at Caesars, is priced below the fair price of -547 (−1.1% value).
- Total goals: AiQ gives the under 3.5 goals a 58% confidence rating, its own model's number rather than a market price. Calibrated against the market and graded results, that is a 61.0% chance; the betting market, with the margin removed, has 61.2%. The best price, -167 at BetRivers, is priced below the fair price of -156 (−2.5% value).
Newcastle United vs Fulham
9:00 AM CT at Craven Cottage.
Newcastle United have won 3, drawn 2 and lost 4 of their 9 matches this season, winning two of the last five. Fulham have won 2, drawn 3 and lost 4 of their 9 matches this season, winning two of the last five. Fulham come in with more rest: their last match was on October 31, seven days before this one, while Newcastle United played five days before. When these teams last met, on May 24, 2026, Fulham won 2-0 at home.
Matchups to watch.
- Weakness against weakness in scoring. Fulham averaged 1.00 goals per match this season, tied for the 3rd fewest in the Premier League, and Newcastle United conceded 1.67 goals per match, tied for the 5th most.
- Moneyline: AiQ gives Fulham a 58% confidence rating to beat Newcastle United, its own model's number rather than a market price. Calibrated against the market and graded results, that is a 48.3% chance; the betting market, with the margin removed, has 48.3%. The price on record, +100, is priced below the fair price of +107 (−3.3% value).
- Total goals: AiQ gives the under 2.5 goals a 53% confidence rating, its own model's number rather than a market price. Calibrated against the market and graded results, that is a 42.2% chance; the betting market, with the margin removed, has 42.2%. The price on record, +115, is priced below the fair price of +137 (−9.3% value).
Trends in play.
Recent totals lean under. Fulham went under the total in 7 of their last 10 matches.
Manchester City vs Nottingham Forest
11:30 AM CT at The City Ground.
Manchester City have won 10 and lost 3 of their 13 matches this season, winning three of the last five. Nottingham Forest have won 1, drawn 3 and lost 5 of their 9 matches this season, without a win in the last five. Nottingham Forest come in with more rest: their last match was on October 31, seven days before this one, while Manchester City played three days before. When these teams last met, on March 4, 2026, they drew 2-2.
- Moneyline: AiQ gives Manchester City a 58% confidence rating to beat Nottingham Forest, its own model's number rather than a market price. Calibrated against the market and graded results, that is a 56.9% chance; the betting market, with the margin removed, has 56.9%. The best price, -135 at BetMGM, is priced below the fair price of -132 (−0.9% value).
- Total goals: AiQ gives the under 2.5 goals a 58% confidence rating, its own model's number rather than a market price. Calibrated against the market and graded results, that is a 42.4% chance; the betting market, with the margin removed, has 41.3%. The price on record, +120, is priced below the fair price of +136 (−6.7% value).
Trends in play.
Recent totals lean under. Manchester City went under the total in 8 of their last 10 matches.
These come from the closing lines of this season and last. They are context, not the reason for AiQ's picks, and the books price them in.