What is on the UCL slate for Wednesday, October 14, 2026?

UCL Slate Analysis — Wednesday, October 14, 2026

Wednesday, October 14, 2026 · Champions League

These matches have been played. Picks and prices, where shown, are AiQ's from before each match started. See how they finished in the Champions League recaps.

The UCL slate for Wednesday, October 14, 2026 has 9 matchs, the first at 11:45 AM CT. AiQ has a moneyline pick on all 9. Of AiQ's picks on this slate, 4 have a price on record above fair value. Each price is the one AiQ valued the pick at when it last priced the game.

Best value

FC Porto vs Real Betis: Under 2.5 goals (+123 at BetRivers, +3.1% value).
VfB Stuttgart vs Slovan Bratislava: Under 3.5 goals (+100 at BetRivers, +2.3% value).
Paris Saint-Germain vs Manchester City: Paris Saint-Germain on the moneyline (+240 at FanDuel, +1.5% value).
Liverpool vs LASK Linz: Draw on the moneyline (+400 at Fanatics, +1.3% value).

Every match

Liverpool vs LASK Linz

11:45 AM CT at Raiffeisen Arena (Linz).

Liverpool have won 3, drawn 3 and lost 1 of their 7 matches this season.

Moneyline: AiQ gives a draw between Liverpool and LASK Linz a 56% confidence rating, its own model's number rather than a market price. Calibrated against the market and graded results, that is a 20.3% chance; the betting market, with the margin removed, has 18.4%. The best price, +400 at Fanatics, is +1.3% value against the fair price of +394.
Total goals: AiQ gives the under 3.5 goals a 54% confidence rating, its own model's number rather than a market price. Calibrated against the market and graded results, that is a 59.9% chance; the betting market, with the margin removed, has 61.4%. The price on record, -177, is priced below the fair price of -149 (−6.3% value).

Como vs Feyenoord Rotterdam

11:45 AM CT at De Kuip.

Moneyline: AiQ gives Como a 58% confidence rating to beat Feyenoord Rotterdam, its own model's number rather than a market price. Calibrated against the market and graded results, that is a 41.9% chance; the betting market, with the margin removed, has 41.1%. The price on record, +135, is priced below the fair price of +139 (−1.6% value).
Total goals: AiQ gives the under 3.5 goals a 58% confidence rating, its own model's number rather than a market price. Calibrated against the market and graded results, that is a 58.2% chance; the betting market, with the margin removed, has 58.2%. The price on record, -155, is priced below the fair price of -139 (−4.3% value).

Borussia Dortmund vs Bodo/Glimt

2:00 PM CT at Aspmyra Stadion.

Moneyline: AiQ gives Borussia Dortmund a 56% confidence rating to beat Bodo/Glimt, its own model's number rather than a market price. Calibrated against the market and graded results, that is a 42.3% chance; the betting market, with the margin removed, has 41.6%. The price on record, +130, is priced below the fair price of +136 (−2.6% value).
Total goals: AiQ gives the over 3.5 goals a 62% confidence rating, its own model's number rather than a market price. Calibrated against the market and graded results, that is a 51.6% chance; the betting market, with the margin removed, has 48.8%. The best price, -110 at BetMGM, is priced below the fair price of -107 (−1.5% value).

VfB Stuttgart vs Slovan Bratislava

2:00 PM CT at Národny Futbalovy Stadión.

Moneyline: AiQ gives VfB Stuttgart a 58% confidence rating to beat Slovan Bratislava, its own model's number rather than a market price. Calibrated against the market and graded results, that is a 69.9% chance; the betting market, with the margin removed, has 70.5%. The price on record, -260, is priced below the fair price of -232 (−3.2% value).
Total goals: AiQ gives the under 3.5 goals a 58% confidence rating, its own model's number rather than a market price. Calibrated against the market and graded results, that is a 51.2% chance; the betting market, with the margin removed, has 49.4%. The best price, +100 at BetRivers, is +2.3% value against the fair price of -105.

AEK Athens vs Shakhtar Donetsk

2:00 PM CT at Stamford Bridge.

Moneyline: AiQ gives a draw between AEK Athens and Shakhtar Donetsk a 58% confidence rating, its own model's number rather than a market price. Calibrated against the market and graded results, that is a 30.1% chance; the betting market, with the margin removed, has 28.6%. The price on record, +230, is priced below the fair price of +232 (−0.7% value).
Total goals: AiQ gives the under 2.5 goals a 58% confidence rating, its own model's number rather than a market price. Calibrated against the market and graded results, that is a 53.4% chance; the betting market, with the margin removed, has 52.2%. The best price, -118 at BetRivers, is priced below the fair price of -115 (−1.4% value).

Paris Saint-Germain vs Manchester City

2:00 PM CT at Etihad Stadium.

Manchester City have won all seven of their matches this season.

Moneyline: AiQ gives Paris Saint-Germain a 58% confidence rating to beat Manchester City, its own model's number rather than a market price. Calibrated against the market and graded results, that is a 29.9% chance; the betting market, with the margin removed, has 28.4%. The best price, +240 at FanDuel, is +1.5% value against the fair price of +235.
Total goals: AiQ gives the over 3.5 goals a 58% confidence rating, its own model's number rather than a market price. Calibrated against the market and graded results, that is a 49.4% chance; the betting market, with the margin removed, has 47.1%. The best price, -102 at BetMGM, is priced below the fair price of +102 (−2.2% value).

Trends in play.

Recent totals lean under. Manchester City went under the total in 8 of their last 10 matches.

FC Porto vs Real Betis

2:00 PM CT at Estadio La Cartuja.

Real Betis have won 7, drawn 1 and lost 1 of their 9 matches this season, winning four of the last five.

Moneyline: AiQ gives Real Betis a 58% confidence rating to beat FC Porto, its own model's number rather than a market price. Calibrated against the market and graded results, that is a 46.5% chance; the betting market, with the margin removed, has 45.9%. The best price, +115 at FanDuel, is priced near the fair price of +115 (−0.1% value).
Total goals: AiQ gives the under 2.5 goals a 58% confidence rating, its own model's number rather than a market price. Calibrated against the market and graded results, that is a 46.3% chance; the betting market, with the margin removed, has 43.1%. The best price, +123 at BetRivers, is +3.1% value against the fair price of +116.

Fenerbahce vs Aston Villa

2:00 PM CT at Villa Park.

Aston Villa have won 2, drawn 2 and lost 3 of their 7 matches this season.

Moneyline: AiQ gives Aston Villa a 56% confidence rating to beat Fenerbahce, its own model's number rather than a market price. Calibrated against the market and graded results, that is a 58.3% chance; the betting market, with the margin removed, has 58.5%. The best price, -145 at BetMGM, is priced below the fair price of -140 (−1.4% value).
Total goals: AiQ gives the under 3.5 goals a 58% confidence rating, its own model's number rather than a market price. No book price at this line is confirmed on the record, so no value figure is given.

Trends in play.

Recent totals lean over. Aston Villa went over the total in 7 of their last 10 matches.

Real Madrid vs AS Roma

2:00 PM CT at Olimpico.

Real Madrid have won 7 and lost 2 of their 9 matches this season, winning four of the last five.

Moneyline: AiQ gives Real Madrid a 56% confidence rating to beat AS Roma, its own model's number rather than a market price. Calibrated against the market and graded results, that is a 50.1% chance; the betting market, with the margin removed, has 49.8%. The price on record, -105, is priced below the fair price of -100 (−2.2% value).
Total goals: AiQ gives the under 3.5 goals a 54% confidence rating, its own model's number rather than a market price. Calibrated against the market and graded results, that is a 56.0% chance; the betting market, with the margin removed, has 56.5%. The best price, -134 at BetRivers, is priced below the fair price of -127 (−2.2% value).

These come from the closing lines of this season and last. They are context, not the reason for AiQ's picks, and the books price them in.