Real Madrid defeat AS Roma 4-3: Match Recap, Betting Results & AiQ Picks

Wed, Oct 14, 2026 · Champions League · Real Madrid 4, AS Roma 3

Real Madrid defeated AS Roma 4-3 on Wednesday, October 14 at the Olimpico in a seven-goal thriller. The visitors' moneyline at -108 cashed, and the match sailed over the 3.5-goal total. AiQ finished 2-1 on its graded picks.

Real Madrid vs. AS Roma final score and match recap

Real Madrid and AS Roma traded goals through a balanced first half that ended 1-1, then Real Madrid pulled away in the second, outscoring Roma 3-2 to secure the 4-3 victory. Arda Güler orchestrated the attack with two assists for the visitors, while Antonio Rüdiger added a goal. For Roma, Donyell Malen scored twice and Matìas Soulè supplied two assists.

Did Real Madrid vs. AS Roma go over or under the goals total?

The match produced seven goals, clearing the 3.5 total. Scoring remained even through the opening 45 minutes before accelerating sharply in the second half. AiQ had taken the under at 3.5, a 54% confidence pick that lost.

How did AiQ's Real Madrid vs. AS Roma predictions do?

AiQ posted a 2-1 record across graded picks:

The model correctly identified the winner but misjudged the goal-scoring pace. Its player-prop success came from correctly anticipating Rüdiger's goal.

Real Madrid vs. AS Roma player prop results

AiQ's player-prop record stood at 1-0, delivering a net profit of +$1,800.

Real Madrid vs. AS Roma game prop results: draw no bet and both teams to score

Real Madrid vs. AS Roma odds: sportsbook value and line movement

The three-way moneyline showed Real Madrid at -108, Draw +288 and AS Roma +260. After vig removal, the implied probabilities were 49% for Real Madrid, 26% for AS Roma and 24% for a draw, with a bookmaker margin of 5.5%. A $100 bet on Real Madrid profited $92.59. AiQ's pre-game expected-value calculation placed the Real Madrid price at -105, indicating a -2.2% EV. The market's 50% implied chance aligned with AiQ's calibrated estimate, showing no mispricing.

Real Madrid sit 2-0-0 overall, with a 1-0-0 record at home and 1-0-0 away. Their only recorded total line (n=1) fell under. AS Roma sit 0-1-1 overall, with a 0-0-1 home record and 0-1-0 away. Their sole total line (n=1) also went under.

What's next for Real Madrid and AS Roma?

Real Madrid will host RB Leipzig on Wednesday, October 21. AS Roma return to the Olimpico to host Slovan Bratislava on Tuesday, October 20.