NFL Slate Analysis — Monday, November 9, 2026
Monday, November 9, 2026 · NFL
The NFL slate for Monday, November 9, 2026 has 1 game, at 7:15 PM CT. AiQ has a moneyline pick on it. None of AiQ's picks on this slate has a price on record above fair value. Each price is the one AiQ valued the pick at when it last priced the game.
Every game
Buffalo Bills at Minnesota Vikings
7:15 PM CT at U.S. Bank Stadium. Averaged over the outcomes the betting lines imply, the projected score is Buffalo Bills 25, Minnesota Vikings 21. That is an average, not a pick.
The Buffalo Bills have won 6 of their 7 games this season, winning the last three. The Minnesota Vikings have won 6 of their 7 games this season.
Matchups to watch.
- Strength against strength in scoring. The Buffalo Bills averaged 33.3 points per game this season, the most in the NFL, and the Minnesota Vikings allowed 13.3 points per game, the fewest.
- Weakness against weakness through the air. The Minnesota Vikings averaged 165.6 passing yards per game this season, the 3rd fewest in the NFL, and the Buffalo Bills allowed 254.7 passing yards per game, the 3rd most.
- Moneyline: The betting market, with the margin removed, gives Buffalo Bills a 64.1% chance to beat Minnesota Vikings. AiQ's moneyline pick is the side the consensus favors. The best price, -186 at FanDuel, is priced below the fair price of -178 (−1.5% value).
- Total: The betting market, with the margin removed, puts the over 45.5 points at 49.4% and the under at 50.6%. That is near a coin flip, and AiQ's read is the market's own, so AiQ has no edge on the total. AiQ's projected total, 46.2 points, sits on the 45.5 line.
- Spread: The betting market, with the margin removed, gives Buffalo Bills -3.5 a 48.7% chance to cover and Minnesota Vikings +3.5 51.3%. That is near a coin flip, and AiQ's read is the market's own, so AiQ has no edge on the spread.
Trends in play.
The total pulls both ways. The last 6 games involving the Minnesota Vikings went under the total. Meanwhile, the Buffalo Bills went over the total in 7 of their last 10 games.
Recent results against the spread back the Buffalo Bills. The Buffalo Bills covered the spread in 7 of their last 10 games.
These come from the closing lines of this season and last. They are context, not the reason for AiQ's picks, and the books price them in.