NCAAF Slate Analysis — Thursday, November 5, 2026
Thursday, November 5, 2026 · NCAAF
The NCAAF slate for Thursday, November 5, 2026 has 2 games, the first at 6:30 PM CT. AiQ has a moneyline pick on all 2. None of AiQ's picks on this slate has a price on record above fair value. Each price is the one AiQ valued the pick at when it last priced the game.
Every game
UTSA Roadrunners at Florida Atlantic Owls
6:30 PM CT at Flagler Credit Union Stadium. Averaged over the outcomes the betting lines imply, the projected score is UTSA Roadrunners 41, Florida Atlantic Owls 33. That is an average, not a pick.
The UTSA Roadrunners have won 7 of their 8 games this season, winning the last five. The Florida Atlantic Owls have won 5 of their 8 games this season, winning three of the last five. The UTSA Roadrunners come in with more rest: their last game was on October 24, 12 days before this one, while the Florida Atlantic Owls played seven days before.
Matchups to watch.
- Weakness against weakness on the ground. The Florida Atlantic Owls averaged 110.4 rushing yards per game this season, the 18th fewest of 138 FBS teams, and the UTSA Roadrunners allowed 183.6 rushing yards per game, the 23rd most.
- Moneyline: The betting market, with the margin removed, gives UTSA Roadrunners a 70.5% chance to beat Florida Atlantic Owls. AiQ's moneyline pick is the side the consensus favors. The best price, -245 at FanDuel, is priced below the fair price of -238 (−0.8% value).
- Total: The betting market, with the margin removed, puts the over 72.5 points at 50.8% and the under at 49.2%. That is near a coin flip, and AiQ's read is the market's own, so AiQ has no edge on the total. AiQ's projected total, 73.7 points, comes from the same market prices, so it adds nothing to them.
- Spread: The betting market, with the margin removed, gives UTSA Roadrunners -7 a 49.0% chance to cover and Florida Atlantic Owls +7 51.0%. That is near a coin flip, and AiQ's read is the market's own, so AiQ has no edge on the spread.
Trends in play.
Everything points over on the total. The Florida Atlantic Owls went over the total in 5 of their last 6 games. The UTSA Roadrunners went over the total in 7 of their last 10 games.
James Madison Dukes at Southern Miss Golden Eagles
7:00 PM CT at M. M. Roberts Stadium. Averaged over the outcomes the betting lines imply, the projected score is James Madison Dukes 37, Southern Miss Golden Eagles 22. That is an average, not a pick.
The James Madison Dukes have won 7 of their 9 games this season, winning three of the last five. The Southern Miss Golden Eagles have won 3 of their 8 games this season, winning two of the last five. The James Madison Dukes come in with more rest: their last game was on October 29, seven days before this one, while the Southern Miss Golden Eagles played five days before.
Matchups to watch.
- Mismatch on the ground. The James Madison Dukes averaged 202.1 rushing yards per game this season, tied for the 22nd most of 138 FBS teams, and the Southern Miss Golden Eagles allowed 223.4 rushing yards per game, the 3rd most.
- Moneyline: The betting market, with the margin removed, gives James Madison Dukes an 85.4% chance to beat Southern Miss Golden Eagles. AiQ's moneyline pick is the side the consensus favors. The price on record, -650, is priced below the fair price of -584 (−1.5% value).
- Total: The betting market, with the margin removed, puts the over 57.5 points at 50.3% and the under at 49.7%. That is near a coin flip, and AiQ's read is the market's own, so AiQ has no edge on the total. AiQ's projected total, 58.5 points, comes from the same market prices, so it adds nothing to them.
- Spread: The betting market, with the margin removed, gives James Madison Dukes -14.5 a 49.4% chance to cover and Southern Miss Golden Eagles +14.5 50.6%. That is near a coin flip, and AiQ's read is the market's own, so AiQ has no edge on the spread.
These come from the closing lines of this season and last. They are context, not the reason for AiQ's picks, and the books price them in.