NCAAF Slate Analysis — Tuesday, October 20, 2026
Tuesday, October 20, 2026 · NCAAF
These games have been played. Picks and prices, where shown, are AiQ's from before each game started. See how they finished in the NCAAF recaps.
The NCAAF slate for Tuesday, October 20, 2026 has 3 games, the first at 6:00 PM CT. AiQ has a moneyline pick on all 3. None of AiQ's picks on this slate has a price on record above fair value. Each price is the one AiQ valued the pick at when it last priced the game.
Every game
Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders at Florida International Panthers
6:00 PM CT at Pitbull Stadium. Averaged over the outcomes the betting lines imply, the projected score is Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders 18, Florida International Panthers 29. That is an average, not a pick.
Both teams have won 3 of their 6 games this season.
Matchups to watch.
- An uphill climb in total yards. The Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders averaged 321.5 yards per game this season, the 17th fewest of 138 FBS teams, and the Florida International Panthers allowed 266.0 yards per game, the 9th fewest.
- Weakness against weakness on the ground. The Florida International Panthers averaged 120.0 rushing yards per game this season, the 22nd fewest of 138 FBS teams, and the Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders allowed 199.2 rushing yards per game, the 12th most.
- Moneyline: The betting market, with the margin removed, gives Florida International Panthers a 78.9% chance to beat Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders. AiQ's moneyline pick is the side the consensus favors. The best price, -400 at Caesars, is priced below the fair price of -375 (−1.3% value).
- Total: The betting market, with the margin removed, puts the over 46.5 points at 50.0% and the under at 50.0%. That is near a coin flip, and AiQ's read is the market's own, so AiQ has no edge on the total. AiQ's projected total, 47.3 points, sits on the 46.5 line.
- Spread: The betting market, with the margin removed, gives Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders +10 a 49.5% chance to cover and Florida International Panthers -10 50.5%. That is near a coin flip, and AiQ's read is the market's own, so AiQ has no edge on the spread.
Trends in play.
Recent results against the spread back the Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders, the underdog here. The Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders covered the spread in 7 of their last 9 games.
Missouri State Bears at Delaware Blue Hens
6:00 PM CT at Delaware Stadium. Averaged over the outcomes the betting lines imply, the projected score is Missouri State Bears 26, Delaware Blue Hens 29. That is an average, not a pick.
The Delaware Blue Hens have won 2 of their 6 games this season, losing the last three. The Missouri State Bears have won 2 of their 6 games this season.
Matchups to watch.
- Weakness against weakness on the ground. The Delaware Blue Hens averaged 94.0 rushing yards per game this season, the 4th fewest of 138 FBS teams, and the Missouri State Bears allowed 176.5 rushing yards per game, the 31st most.
- Moneyline: The betting market, with the margin removed, gives Delaware Blue Hens a 58.9% chance to beat Missouri State Bears. AiQ's moneyline pick is the side the consensus favors. The best price, -152 at BetRivers, is priced below the fair price of -143 (−2.4% value).
- Total: The betting market, with the margin removed, puts the over 53.5 points at 50.3% and the under at 49.7%. That is near a coin flip, and AiQ's read is the market's own, so AiQ has no edge on the total. AiQ's projected total, 54.5 points, comes from the same market prices, so it adds nothing to them.
- Spread: The betting market, with the margin removed, gives Missouri State Bears +3 a 49.7% chance to cover and Delaware Blue Hens -3 50.3%. That is near a coin flip, and AiQ's read is the market's own, so AiQ has no edge on the spread.
South Alabama Jaguars at Marshall Thundering Herd
6:30 PM CT at Joan C. Edwards Stadium. Averaged over the outcomes the betting lines imply, the projected score is South Alabama Jaguars 34, Marshall Thundering Herd 33. That is an average, not a pick.
The South Alabama Jaguars have won 4 of their 6 games this season. The Marshall Thundering Herd have won 3 of their 6 games this season. The South Alabama Jaguars come in with more rest: their last game was on October 8, 12 days before this one, while the Marshall Thundering Herd played ten days before.
Matchups to watch.
- Mismatch in scoring. The South Alabama Jaguars averaged 38.8 points per game this season, the 15th most of 138 FBS teams, and the Marshall Thundering Herd allowed 33.7 points per game, the 10th most.
- Weakness against weakness in scoring. The Marshall Thundering Herd averaged 22.0 points per game this season, the 30th fewest of 138 FBS teams, and the South Alabama Jaguars allowed 34.5 points per game, the 8th most.
- Moneyline: The betting market, with the margin removed, gives South Alabama Jaguars a 53.6% chance to beat Marshall Thundering Herd. AiQ's moneyline pick is the side the consensus favors. The best price, -122 at BetRivers, is priced below the fair price of -115 (−2.5% value).
- Total: The betting market, with the margin removed, puts the over 66.5 points at 49.4% and the under at 50.6%. That is near a coin flip, and AiQ's read is the market's own, so AiQ has no edge on the total. AiQ's projected total, 67.0 points, sits on the 66.5 line.
- Spread: The betting market, with the margin removed, gives South Alabama Jaguars -2 a 49.8% chance to cover and Marshall Thundering Herd +2 50.2%. That is near a coin flip, and AiQ's read is the market's own, so AiQ has no edge on the spread.
Trends in play.
Recent totals lean over. The last 5 games involving the South Alabama Jaguars went over the total.
Recent results against the spread back the South Alabama Jaguars. The Marshall Thundering Herd failed to cover the spread in 6 of their last 7 games.
These come from the closing lines of this season and last. They are context, not the reason for AiQ's picks, and the books price them in.