Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders defeat Florida International Panthers 26-23: Recap, Betting Results & AiQ Picks
Tue, Oct 20, 2026 · NCAAF · Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders 26, Florida International Panthers 23
Middle Tennessee defeated Florida International 26-23 on Tuesday night at Pitbull Stadium, covering the +10.5 spread as an upset winner. The total went over 46.5, finishing at 49 points.
Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders vs. Florida International Panthers final score and game recap
Middle Tennessee scored 6 points in the second quarter to take a 13-8 halftime lead. The Blue Raiders extended their advantage to 23-16 with a 10-point third quarter before Florida International narrowed the gap in the fourth, but Middle Tennessee held on for the three-point victory.
Terrence Brown anchored the Middle Tennessee ground game with 158 rushing yards and a touchdown on 18 carries. Roman Gagliano completed 16 of 27 passes for 200 yards and a touchdown without an interception. For Florida International, JJ Kohl threw three touchdown passes on 15 of 28 completions for 179 yards and one interception, while Devonte Lyons rushed for 115 yards on 19 carries.
Who covered the spread in Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders vs. Florida International Panthers?
Middle Tennessee covered as the underdog, winning outright against the -10.5 closing line. The spread opened at -10 and shifted 0.5 points toward Florida International, yet the Blue Raiders' three-point victory beat the line by 13.5 points.
Did Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders vs. Florida International Panthers go over or under the total?
The contest went over 46.5, finishing at 49 points—a 2.5-point excess. The total opened at 45.5 and moved up 1 point to 46.5.
How did AiQ's Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders vs. Florida International Panthers predictions do?
AiQ finished 0-1 across every graded pick.
- Moneyline: Picked Florida International Panthers at -415; result was a loss (-$100 on a $100 bet).
AiQ favored the Panthers at 79% confidence, matching the market's vig-removed implied probability of 79%. The model identified the correct favorite but missed the upset entirely.
Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders vs. Florida International Panthers game prop results: team totals, first half and first quarter
- Florida International Panthers team total 28.5: Under (paid -115); they scored 23.
- First-half total 23.5: Under (paid -112); 21 points were recorded.
- First-half spread: Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders +6.5 covered (paid -115).
- First-quarter moneyline: Florida International Panthers won the first quarter (paid -230).
- Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders team total 17.5: Over (paid -102); they posted 26.
- First-quarter total 9.5: Over (paid -115); 15 points were tallied.
- First-half moneyline: Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders won the first half (paid +225).
Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders vs. Florida International Panthers odds: sportsbook value and line movement
The closing moneyline was Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders +323 and Florida International Panthers -415, implying win probabilities of 23% and 77% after removing the 4.2% vig. The Blue Raiders' upset paid $323 on a $100 wager. AiQ's pre-game moneyline evaluation at -400 (best price at Caesars) showed -1.3% expected value, indicating the model viewed that price as negative expected value despite favoring the Panthers.
Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders and Florida International Panthers betting trends: 2026 season
Middle Tennessee sits at 4-3 overall, 3-0 at home and 1-3 on the road. Against the spread in seven games with a recorded closing line, the Blue Raiders are 5-2. The over has hit three times and the under four times in their seven games with a recorded total. They have won their last two games.
Florida International is 3-4 overall, 3-1 at home and 0-3 away. Against the spread in six games with a recorded closing line, the Panthers are 3-2-1. The over has hit three times and the under four times in their seven games with a recorded total. They have lost their last two games.
What's next for Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders and Florida International Panthers?
Middle Tennessee will host Kennesaw State Owls on Wednesday, October 28. Florida International travels to face Liberty Flames on Saturday, October 31.