NCAAF Slate Analysis — Friday, October 16, 2026
Friday, October 16, 2026 · NCAAF
These games have been played. Picks and prices, where shown, are AiQ's from before each game started. See how they finished in the NCAAF recaps.
The NCAAF slate for Friday, October 16, 2026 has 3 games, the first at 6:30 PM CT. AiQ has a moneyline pick on all 3. None of AiQ's picks on this slate has a price on record above fair value. Each price is the one AiQ valued the pick at when it last priced the game.
Every game
Memphis Tigers at Tulane Green Wave
6:30 PM CT at Yulman Stadium. Averaged over the outcomes the betting lines imply, the projected score is Memphis Tigers 32, Tulane Green Wave 25. That is an average, not a pick.
The Memphis Tigers have won 5 of their 6 games this season, winning the last three. The Tulane Green Wave have won 2 of their 5 games this season. When these teams last met, on November 7, 2025, the Tulane Green Wave won 38-32 on the road.
Matchups to watch.
- Mismatch on the ground. The Memphis Tigers averaged 247.0 rushing yards per game this season, the 7th most of 138 FBS teams, and the Tulane Green Wave allowed 218.6 rushing yards per game, the 5th most.
- Moneyline: The betting market, with the margin removed, gives Memphis Tigers a 70.7% chance to beat Tulane Green Wave. AiQ's moneyline pick is the side the consensus favors. The best price, -250 at BetMGM, is priced below the fair price of -242 (−1.0% value).
- Total: The betting market, with the margin removed, puts the over 55.5 points at 50.8% and the under at 49.2%. That is near a coin flip, and AiQ's read is the market's own, so AiQ has no edge on the total. AiQ's projected total, 56.7 points, comes from the same market prices, so it adds nothing to them.
- Spread: The betting market, with the margin removed, gives Memphis Tigers -6.5 a 51.4% chance to cover and Tulane Green Wave +6.5 48.6%. That is near a coin flip, and AiQ's read is the market's own, so AiQ has no edge on the spread.
Washington Huskies at Purdue Boilermakers
7:00 PM CT at Ross-Ade Stadium. Averaged over the outcomes the betting lines imply, the projected score is Washington Huskies 24, Purdue Boilermakers 27. That is an average, not a pick.
The Washington Huskies have won 3 of their 6 games this season, losing the last three. The Purdue Boilermakers have won 3 of their 6 games this season.
Matchups to watch.
- Mismatch through the air. The Washington Huskies averaged 279.5 passing yards per game this season, the 22nd most of 138 FBS teams, and the Purdue Boilermakers allowed 243.2 passing yards per game, the 26th most.
- Moneyline: The betting market, with the margin removed, gives Purdue Boilermakers a 60.2% chance to beat Washington Huskies. AiQ's moneyline pick is the side the consensus favors. The best price, -159 at Caesars, is priced below the fair price of -151 (−2.0% value).
- Total: The betting market, with the margin removed, puts the over 50.5 points at 49.4% and the under at 50.6%. That is near a coin flip, and AiQ's read is the market's own, so AiQ has no edge on the total. AiQ's projected total, 51.0 points, sits on the 50.5 line.
- Spread: The betting market, with the margin removed, gives Washington Huskies +3 a 49.1% chance to cover and Purdue Boilermakers -3 50.9%. That is near a coin flip, and AiQ's read is the market's own, so AiQ has no edge on the spread.
Trends in play.
Recent totals lean over. The Purdue Boilermakers went over the total in 6 of their last 7 games.
Recent results against the spread back the Purdue Boilermakers. The Washington Huskies failed to cover the spread in 5 of their last 7 games.
App State Mountaineers at Coastal Carolina Chanticleers
7:00 PM CT at Brooks Stadium (SC). Averaged over the outcomes the betting lines imply, the projected score is App State Mountaineers 25, Coastal Carolina Chanticleers 25. That is an average, not a pick.
The App State Mountaineers have won 3 of their 5 games this season. The Coastal Carolina Chanticleers have won 2 of their 6 games this season.
- Moneyline: The betting market, with the margin removed, gives App State Mountaineers a 51.3% chance to beat Coastal Carolina Chanticleers. AiQ's moneyline pick is the side the consensus favors. The price on record, -115, is priced below the fair price of -105 (−4.1% value).
- Total: The betting market, with the margin removed, puts the over 48.5 points at 50.5% and the under at 49.5%. That is near a coin flip, and AiQ's read is the market's own, so AiQ has no edge on the total. AiQ's projected total, 49.4 points, sits on the 48.5 line.
- Spread: The betting market, with the margin removed, gives App State Mountaineers -1.5 a 48.7% chance to cover and Coastal Carolina Chanticleers +1.5 51.3%. That is near a coin flip, and AiQ's read is the market's own, so AiQ has no edge on the spread.
These come from the closing lines of this season and last. They are context, not the reason for AiQ's picks, and the books price them in.