NBA Slate Analysis — Monday, November 9, 2026

Monday, November 9, 2026 · NBA

The NBA slate for Monday, November 9, 2026 has 8 games, the first at 6:00 PM CT. AiQ has a moneyline pick on all 8. Of AiQ's picks on this slate, 3 have a price on record above fair value. Each price is the one AiQ valued the pick at when it last priced the game.

Best value

• New Orleans Pelicans at Golden State Warriors: Golden State Warriors on the moneyline (-480 at BetRivers, +3.4% value).
• Washington Wizards at Detroit Pistons: Detroit Pistons on the moneyline (-480 at FanDuel, +1.4% value).
• San Antonio Spurs at Phoenix Suns: San Antonio Spurs on the moneyline (-345 at BetRivers, +0.9% value).

Every game

Los Angeles Lakers at Atlanta Hawks

6:00 PM CT at State Farm Arena.

The Los Angeles Lakers have won 9 of their 11 games this season, winning the last five. The Atlanta Hawks have won 7 of their 11 games this season, winning the last four. When these teams last met, on January 13, 2026, the Los Angeles Lakers won 141-116 at home.

Matchups to watch.

• Mismatch in shooting. The Los Angeles Lakers made 50.5% of their shots this season, the highest in the NBA, and the Atlanta Hawks allowed opponents to make 48.3% of their shots, the 5th highest.

• Moneyline: AiQ gives Los Angeles Lakers a 62% confidence rating to beat Atlanta Hawks, its own model's number rather than a market price. Calibrated against the market and graded results, that is a 46.3% chance; the betting market, with the margin removed, has 47.6%. The best price, +112 at BetRivers, is priced below the fair price of +116 (−1.8% value).
• Total: AiQ gives the over 236.5 points a 66% confidence rating, its own model's number rather than a market price. Calibrated against the market and graded results, that is a 51.6% chance; the betting market, with the margin removed, has 50.0%. The price on record, -110, is priced below the fair price of -107 (−1.5% value).
• Spread: AiQ gives Atlanta Hawks -1.5 a 59% confidence rating to cover, its own model's number rather than a market price. Calibrated against the market and graded results, that is a 48.9% chance; the betting market, with the margin removed, has 50.0%. The best price, -105 at Caesars, is priced below the fair price of +104 (−4.5% value).

Trends in play.

Against the spread, the records lean toward the Los Angeles Lakers. The Los Angeles Lakers covered the spread in 5 straight games. The Atlanta Hawks failed to cover the spread in 6 of 8 games as favorites this season.

Recent totals lean over. The Los Angeles Lakers went over the total in 7 of their last 10 games.

Cleveland Cavaliers at Charlotte Hornets

6:00 PM CT at Spectrum Center.

The Charlotte Hornets have won 3 of their 10 games this season, losing the last six. The Cleveland Cavaliers have won 5 of their 10 games this season, winning two of the last five. When these teams last met, on February 20, 2026, the Cleveland Cavaliers won 118-113 on the road.

Matchups to watch.

• An uphill climb in shooting. The Charlotte Hornets made 39.3% of their shots this season, the lowest in the NBA, and the Cleveland Cavaliers allowed opponents to make 43.9% of their shots, the 7th lowest.

• Moneyline: AiQ gives Cleveland Cavaliers a 62% confidence rating to beat Charlotte Hornets, its own model's number rather than a market price. Calibrated against the market and graded results, that is a 76.7% chance; the betting market, with the margin removed, has 75.6%. The best price, -335 at BetRivers, is priced near the fair price of -330 (−0.4% value).
• Total: AiQ gives the under 215.5 points a 58% confidence rating, its own model's number rather than a market price. Calibrated against the market and graded results, that is a 51.6% chance; the betting market, with the margin removed, has 50.9%. The best price, -113 at DraftKings, is priced below the fair price of -107 (−2.7% value).
• Spread: AiQ gives Cleveland Cavaliers -8.5 a 59% confidence rating to cover, its own model's number rather than a market price. Calibrated against the market and graded results, that is a 49.2% chance; the betting market, with the margin removed, has 50.2%. The best price, -110 at Caesars, is priced below the fair price of +103 (−6.1% value).

Trends in play.

Against the spread, the records pull in opposite directions. The Charlotte Hornets failed to cover the spread in 8 of their last 10 games. Meanwhile, the Cleveland Cavaliers failed to cover the spread in 7 of their last 10 games. The Charlotte Hornets covered the spread in 3 of the last 4 meetings with the Cleveland Cavaliers.

Recent totals lean under. The Charlotte Hornets went under the total in 7 of their last 10 games.

Washington Wizards at Detroit Pistons

6:00 PM CT at Little Caesars Arena.

The Washington Wizards have won 4 of their 10 games this season, losing the last three. The Detroit Pistons have won 6 of their 9 games this season, winning three of the last five. When these teams last met, on March 19, 2026, the Detroit Pistons won 117-95 on the road.

Matchups to watch.

• An uphill climb in scoring. The Washington Wizards averaged 107.8 points per game this season, the 5th fewest in the NBA, and the Detroit Pistons allowed 103.9 points per game, the fewest.
• Strength against strength from three. The Detroit Pistons made 38.0% of their three-point attempts this season, tied for the 3rd highest in the NBA, and the Washington Wizards allowed opponents to make 31.7% of their three-point attempts, the 4th lowest.

• Moneyline: AiQ gives Detroit Pistons a 66% confidence rating to beat Washington Wizards, its own model's number rather than a market price. Calibrated against the market and graded results, that is an 83.9% chance; the betting market, with the margin removed, has 82.5%. The best price, -480 at FanDuel, is +1.4% value against the fair price of -520.
• Total: AiQ gives the over 219.5 points a 62% confidence rating, its own model's number rather than a market price. Calibrated against the market and graded results, that is a 51.2% chance; the betting market, with the margin removed, has 50.0%. The best price, -107 at DraftKings, is priced below the fair price of -105 (−0.9% value).
• Spread: AiQ gives Detroit Pistons -10.5 a 59% confidence rating to cover, its own model's number rather than a market price. Calibrated against the market and graded results, that is a 47.6% chance; the betting market, with the margin removed, has 48.8%. The best price, -104 at DraftKings, is priced below the fair price of +110 (−6.6% value).

Trends in play.

The total pulls both ways. The Washington Wizards went under the total in 8 of their last 10 games. Meanwhile, of the last 4 meetings between the Detroit Pistons and the Washington Wizards, 3 went over the total.

Against the spread, the records pull in opposite directions. The Washington Wizards covered the spread in 3 of the last 4 meetings with the Detroit Pistons. Meanwhile, the Detroit Pistons covered the spread in 5 of 7 games as favorites this season.

Memphis Grizzlies at Toronto Raptors

6:30 PM CT at Scotiabank Arena.

The Memphis Grizzlies have won 6 of their 9 games this season, losing the last three. The Toronto Raptors have won 5 of their 9 games this season, winning two of the last five. When these teams last met, on April 3, 2026, the Toronto Raptors won 128-96 on the road.

• Moneyline: AiQ gives Memphis Grizzlies a 62% confidence rating to beat Toronto Raptors, its own model's number rather than a market price. Calibrated against the market and graded results, that is a 51.5% chance; the betting market, with the margin removed, has 52.3%. The price on record, -119, is priced below the fair price of -106 (−5.2% value).
• Total: AiQ gives the over 225.5 points a 62% confidence rating, its own model's number rather than a market price. Calibrated against the market and graded results, that is a 51.6% chance; the betting market, with the margin removed, has 50.5%. The best price, -110 at BetMGM, is priced below the fair price of -107 (−1.5% value).
• Spread: AiQ gives Memphis Grizzlies -1.5 a 57% confidence rating to cover, its own model's number rather than a market price. Calibrated against the market and graded results, that is a 49.2% chance; the betting market, with the margin removed, has 50.0%. The best price, -109 at BetRivers, is priced below the fair price of +103 (−5.7% value).

Indiana Pacers at Dallas Mavericks

7:00 PM CT at American Airlines Center.

The Indiana Pacers have won 3 of their 10 games this season, winning one of the last five. The Dallas Mavericks have won 6 of their 10 games this season, winning three of the last five. When these teams last met, on October 23, 2026, the Dallas Mavericks won 121-105 on the road. This is their second meeting this season.

Matchups to watch.

• An uphill climb from three. The Indiana Pacers made 32.6% of their three-point attempts this season, the 6th lowest in the NBA, and the Dallas Mavericks allowed opponents to make 30.6% of their three-point attempts, the lowest.

• Moneyline: AiQ gives Dallas Mavericks a 62% confidence rating to beat Indiana Pacers, its own model's number rather than a market price. Calibrated against the market and graded results, that is a 64.0% chance; the betting market, with the margin removed, has 63.9%. The best price, -188 at FanDuel, is priced below the fair price of -178 (−1.9% value).
• Total: AiQ gives the over 226.5 points a 57% confidence rating, its own model's number rather than a market price. Calibrated against the market and graded results, that is a 51.6% chance; the betting market, with the margin removed, has 51.0%. The best price, -114 at FanDuel, is priced below the fair price of -107 (−3.1% value).
• Spread: AiQ gives Dallas Mavericks -4.5 a 59% confidence rating to cover, its own model's number rather than a market price. Calibrated against the market and graded results, that is a 50.2% chance; the betting market, with the margin removed, has 51.2%. The best price, -112 at FanDuel, is priced below the fair price of -101 (−4.9% value).

Trends in play.

Everything points under on the total. The last 4 games involving the Dallas Mavericks went under the total. The last 4 games involving the Indiana Pacers went under the total.

Recent results against the spread back the Dallas Mavericks. The Dallas Mavericks covered the spread in 7 of their last 10 games.

Denver Nuggets at Houston Rockets

7:30 PM CT at Toyota Center (Houston).

The Denver Nuggets have won 5 of their 8 games this season, winning four of the last five. The Houston Rockets have won 7 of their 10 games this season, winning two of the last five. When these teams last met, on March 11, 2026, the Denver Nuggets won 129-93 at home.

• Moneyline: AiQ gives Houston Rockets a 62% confidence rating to beat Denver Nuggets, its own model's number rather than a market price. Calibrated against the market and graded results, that is a 61.6% chance; the betting market, with the margin removed, has 61.6%. The price on record, -173, is priced below the fair price of -160 (−2.9% value).
• Total: AiQ gives the over 223.5 points a 62% confidence rating, its own model's number rather than a market price. Calibrated against the market and graded results, that is a 51.2% chance; the betting market, with the margin removed, has 50.0%. The best price, -104 at FanDuel, is priced near the fair price of -105 (+0.4% value).
• Spread: AiQ gives Houston Rockets -4.5 a 59% confidence rating to cover, its own model's number rather than a market price. Calibrated against the market and graded results, that is a 49.3% chance; the betting market, with the margin removed, has 50.3%. The best price, -110 at Fanatics, is priced below the fair price of +103 (−5.9% value).

Trends in play.

Against the spread, the records pull in opposite directions. The Houston Rockets covered the spread in 4 of 5 home games this season. Meanwhile, the Denver Nuggets covered the spread in 3 of the last 4 meetings with the Houston Rockets.

Recent totals lean under. Of the last 4 meetings between the Houston Rockets and the Denver Nuggets, 3 went under the total.

San Antonio Spurs at Phoenix Suns

8:00 PM CT at Mortgage Matchup Center.

The San Antonio Spurs have won 8 of their 10 games this season, winning the last eight. The Phoenix Suns have won 3 of their 8 games this season, winning two of the last five. When these teams last met, on March 19, 2026, the San Antonio Spurs won 101-100 at home.

Matchups to watch.

• Mismatch in scoring. The San Antonio Spurs averaged 118.4 points per game this season, the 6th most in the NBA, and the Phoenix Suns allowed 118.6 points per game, the 6th most.
• Strength against strength in shooting. The Phoenix Suns made 47.2% of their shots this season, the 8th highest in the NBA, and the San Antonio Spurs allowed opponents to make 43.6% of their shots, the 6th lowest.

• Moneyline: AiQ gives San Antonio Spurs a 67% confidence rating to beat Phoenix Suns, its own model's number rather than a market price. Calibrated against the market and graded results, that is a 78.2% chance; the betting market, with the margin removed, has 77.4%. The best price, -345 at BetRivers, is +0.9% value against the fair price of -359.
• Total: AiQ gives the over 226.5 points a 62% confidence rating, its own model's number rather than a market price. Calibrated against the market and graded results, that is a 51.0% chance; the betting market, with the margin removed, has 49.8%. The best price, -106 at DraftKings, is priced below the fair price of -104 (−0.9% value).
• Spread: AiQ gives San Antonio Spurs -8.5 a 60% confidence rating to cover, its own model's number rather than a market price. Calibrated against the market and graded results, that is a 49.8% chance; the betting market, with the margin removed, has 50.9%. The best price, -110 at DraftKings, is priced below the fair price of +101 (−4.9% value).

Trends in play.

Against the spread, the records pull in opposite directions. The Phoenix Suns failed to cover the spread in 5 of 6 games as underdogs this season. Meanwhile, the Phoenix Suns covered the spread in 3 of the last 4 meetings with the San Antonio Spurs.

The total pulls both ways. The Phoenix Suns went over the total in 7 of their last 10 games. Meanwhile, the San Antonio Spurs went under the total in 7 of their last 10 games. Of the last 4 meetings between the Phoenix Suns and the San Antonio Spurs, 3 went under the total.

New Orleans Pelicans at Golden State Warriors

9:00 PM CT at Chase Center.

The Golden State Warriors have won 7 of their 10 games this season, winning the last seven. The New Orleans Pelicans have won 4 of their 10 games this season, winning three of the last five. When these teams last met, on February 24, 2026, the New Orleans Pelicans won 113-109 at home.

Matchups to watch.

• Strength against strength from three. The Golden State Warriors made 39.5% of their three-point attempts this season, the highest in the NBA, and the New Orleans Pelicans allowed opponents to make 32.3% of their three-point attempts, the 7th lowest.

• Moneyline: AiQ gives Golden State Warriors a 62% confidence rating to beat New Orleans Pelicans, its own model's number rather than a market price. Calibrated against the market and graded results, that is an 85.6% chance; the betting market, with the margin removed, has 83.8%. The best price, -480 at BetRivers, is +3.4% value against the fair price of -594.
• Total: AiQ gives the over 229.5 points a 66% confidence rating, its own model's number rather than a market price. Calibrated against the market and graded results, that is a 50.7% chance; the betting market, with the margin removed, has 49.0%. The best price, -105 at BetMGM, is priced below the fair price of -103 (−1.1% value).
• Spread: AiQ gives Golden State Warriors -11.5 a 59% confidence rating to cover, its own model's number rather than a market price. Calibrated against the market and graded results, that is a 49.3% chance; the betting market, with the margin removed, has 50.3%. The best price, -110 at Fanatics, is priced below the fair price of +103 (−5.9% value).

Trends in play.

Recent results against the spread back the Golden State Warriors. The Golden State Warriors covered the spread in 7 of their last 10 games.

These come from the closing lines of this season and last. They are context, not the reason for AiQ's picks, and the books price them in.

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