NBA Slate Analysis — Wednesday, October 28, 2026

Wednesday, October 28, 2026 · NBA

These games have been played. Picks and prices, where shown, are AiQ's from before each game started. See how they finished in the NBA recaps.

The NBA slate for Wednesday, October 28, 2026 has 12 games, the first at 6:00 PM CT. AiQ has a moneyline pick on all 12. Of AiQ's picks on this slate, 2 have a price on record above fair value. Each price is the one AiQ valued the pick at when it last priced the game.

Best value

• Houston Rockets at Milwaukee Bucks: Milwaukee Bucks on the moneyline (+270, +2.6% value).
• Oklahoma City Thunder at Dallas Mavericks: Oklahoma City Thunder on the moneyline (-167 at BetRivers, +1.9% value).

Every game

Miami Heat at Atlanta Hawks

6:00 PM CT at State Farm Arena.

The Miami Heat have lost five straight, a run that goes back to last season, and all four of their games this season. The Atlanta Hawks have won 2 of their 4 games this season. When these teams last met, on April 12, 2026, the Miami Heat won 143-117 at home.

• Moneyline: AiQ gives Atlanta Hawks a 62% confidence rating to beat Miami Heat, its own model's number rather than a market price. Calibrated against the market and graded results, that is a 56.1% chance; the betting market, with the margin removed, has 55.5%. The best price, -130 at Caesars, is priced below the fair price of -128 (−0.8% value).
• Total: AiQ gives the under 242.5 points a 58% confidence rating, its own model's number rather than a market price. Calibrated against the market and graded results, that is a 52.3% chance; the betting market, with the margin removed, has 51.2%. The price on record, -115, is priced below the fair price of -110 (−2.2% value).
• Spread: AiQ gives Miami Heat +2.5 a 58% confidence rating to cover, its own model's number rather than a market price. Calibrated against the market and graded results, that is a 50.1% chance; the betting market, with the margin removed, has 51.5%. The best price, -110 at BetRivers, is priced below the fair price of -100 (−4.4% value).

Trends in play.

Against the spread, the records pull in opposite directions. The Miami Heat failed to cover the spread in 4 straight games. Meanwhile, the Miami Heat covered the spread in 3 of the last 4 meetings with the Atlanta Hawks.

Washington Wizards at Cleveland Cavaliers

6:00 PM CT at Rocket Arena.

The Washington Wizards have won 2 of their 4 games this season. The Cleveland Cavaliers have won 2 of their 3 games this season. When these teams last met, on April 12, 2026, the Cleveland Cavaliers won 130-117 at home.

• Moneyline: AiQ gives Cleveland Cavaliers a 62% confidence rating to beat Washington Wizards, its own model's number rather than a market price. Calibrated against the market and graded results, that is a 76.8% chance; the betting market, with the margin removed, has 78.3%. The best price, -375 at Fanatics, is priced below the fair price of -332 (−2.7% value).
• Total: AiQ gives the over 240.5 points a 57% confidence rating, its own model's number rather than a market price. Calibrated against the market and graded results, that is a 51.2% chance; the betting market, with the margin removed, has 50.0%. The price on record, -110, is priced below the fair price of -105 (−2.3% value).
• Spread: AiQ gives Cleveland Cavaliers -10.5 a 59% confidence rating to cover, its own model's number rather than a market price. Calibrated against the market and graded results, that is a 46.6% chance; the betting market, with the margin removed, has 48.8%. The price on record, -105, is priced below the fair price of +115 (−9.0% value).

Trends in play.

Against the spread, the records pull in opposite directions. The Cleveland Cavaliers failed to cover the spread in 7 straight games. Meanwhile, the Washington Wizards failed to cover the spread in 7 of their last 10 games. The Cleveland Cavaliers covered the spread in 3 of the last 4 meetings with the Washington Wizards.

Everything points over on the total. Each of the last 4 meetings between the Cleveland Cavaliers and the Washington Wizards went over the total. The Cleveland Cavaliers went over the total in 7 of their last 10 games.

Charlotte Hornets at Detroit Pistons

6:00 PM CT at Little Caesars Arena.

Both teams have won 3 of their 4 games this season. When these teams last met, on April 10, 2026, the Detroit Pistons won 118-100 on the road.

• Moneyline: AiQ gives Detroit Pistons a 62% confidence rating to beat Charlotte Hornets, its own model's number rather than a market price. Calibrated against the market and graded results, that is a 71.8% chance; the betting market, with the margin removed, has 72.7%. The best price, -285 at Caesars, is priced below the fair price of -254 (−3.1% value).
• Total: AiQ gives the over 212.5 points a 62% confidence rating, its own model's number rather than a market price. Calibrated against the market and graded results, that is a 52.0% chance; the betting market, with the margin removed, has 50.0%. The price on record, -110, is priced below the fair price of -109 (−0.7% value).
• Spread: AiQ gives Detroit Pistons -7.5 a 59% confidence rating to cover, its own model's number rather than a market price. Calibrated against the market and graded results, that is a 48.3% chance; the betting market, with the margin removed, has 50.2%. The best price, -105 at Caesars, is priced below the fair price of +107 (−5.7% value).

Trends in play.

Everything points under on the total. Each of the last 3 meetings between the Detroit Pistons and the Charlotte Hornets went under the total. The Charlotte Hornets went under the total in 7 of their last 10 games.

Recent results against the spread back the Detroit Pistons. The Detroit Pistons covered the spread in each of the last 3 meetings with the Charlotte Hornets.

Philadelphia 76ers at Indiana Pacers

6:00 PM CT at Gainbridge Fieldhouse.

The Philadelphia 76ers have won 3 of their 4 games this season. The Indiana Pacers have won 2 of their 4 games this season. When these teams last met, on April 10, 2026, the Philadelphia 76ers won 105-94 on the road.

• Moneyline: AiQ gives Philadelphia 76ers a 62% confidence rating to beat Indiana Pacers, its own model's number rather than a market price. Calibrated against the market and graded results, that is a 71.0% chance; the betting market, with the margin removed, has 71.9%. The best price, -260 at FanDuel, is priced below the fair price of -244 (−1.8% value).
• Total: AiQ gives the under 234.5 points a 58% confidence rating, its own model's number rather than a market price. Calibrated against the market and graded results, that is a 51.4% chance; the betting market, with the margin removed, has 50.0%. The best price, -108 at DraftKings, is priced below the fair price of -106 (−1.1% value).
• Spread: AiQ gives Philadelphia 76ers -7.5 a 58% confidence rating to cover, its own model's number rather than a market price. Calibrated against the market and graded results, that is a 48.2% chance; the betting market, with the margin removed, has 50.0%. The best price, -105 at Caesars, is priced below the fair price of +107 (−5.8% value).

Trends in play.

Recent totals lean under. Of the last 4 meetings between the Indiana Pacers and the Philadelphia 76ers, 3 went under the total.

Recent results against the spread back the Philadelphia 76ers. The Philadelphia 76ers covered the spread in 3 of the last 4 meetings with the Indiana Pacers.

Orlando Magic at Toronto Raptors

6:30 PM CT at Scotiabank Arena.

The Orlando Magic have won 1 of their 3 games this season. The Toronto Raptors have won 2 of their 3 games this season. When these teams last met, on March 29, 2026, the Toronto Raptors won 139-87 at home.

• Moneyline: AiQ gives Toronto Raptors a 62% confidence rating to beat Orlando Magic, its own model's number rather than a market price. Calibrated against the market and graded results, that is a 63.8% chance; the betting market, with the margin removed, has 63.9%. The best price, -190 at BetMGM, is priced below the fair price of -176 (−2.7% value).
• Total: AiQ gives the under 223.5 points a 58% confidence rating, its own model's number rather than a market price. Calibrated against the market and graded results, that is a 50.4% chance; the betting market, with the margin removed, has 48.8%. The price on record, -105, is priced below the fair price of -102 (−1.6% value).
• Spread: AiQ gives Toronto Raptors -4.5 a 64% confidence rating to cover, its own model's number rather than a market price. Calibrated against the market and graded results, that is a 48.3% chance; the betting market, with the margin removed, has 51.2%. The price on record, -115, is priced below the fair price of +107 (−9.6% value).

New York Knicks at Chicago Bulls

7:00 PM CT at United Center.

Both teams have won 1 of their 4 games this season. When these teams last met, on April 3, 2026, the New York Knicks won 136-96 at home.

• Moneyline: AiQ gives New York Knicks a 59% confidence rating to beat Chicago Bulls, its own model's number rather than a market price. Calibrated against the market and graded results, that is a 70.7% chance; the betting market, with the margin removed, has 71.9%. The best price, -260 at FanDuel, is priced below the fair price of -241 (−2.1% value).
• Total: AiQ gives the under 232.5 points a 57% confidence rating, its own model's number rather than a market price. Calibrated against the market and graded results, that is a 51.4% chance; the betting market, with the margin removed, has 50.2%. The best price, -110 at DraftKings, is priced below the fair price of -106 (−1.9% value).
• Spread: AiQ gives New York Knicks -6.5 a 58% confidence rating to cover, its own model's number rather than a market price. Calibrated against the market and graded results, that is a 50.3% chance; the betting market, with the margin removed, has 51.7%. The best price, -115 at DraftKings, is priced below the fair price of -101 (−5.9% value).

Trends in play.

Everything points under on the total. The last 6 games involving the New York Knicks went under the total. The Chicago Bulls went under the total in 8 of their last 10 games.

Houston Rockets at Milwaukee Bucks

7:00 PM CT at Fiserv Forum.

The Houston Rockets have won all four of their games this season. The Milwaukee Bucks have won 1 of their 4 games this season. When these teams last met, on April 1, 2026, the Houston Rockets won 119-113 at home.

• Moneyline: AiQ gives Milwaukee Bucks a 62% confidence rating to beat Houston Rockets, its own model's number rather than a market price. Calibrated against the market and graded results, that is a 27.7% chance; the betting market, with the margin removed, has 24.3%. The price on record, +270, is +2.6% value against the fair price of +260.
• Total: AiQ gives the under 226.5 points a 58% confidence rating, its own model's number rather than a market price. Calibrated against the market and graded results, that is a 52.8% chance; the betting market, with the margin removed, has 51.7%. The best price, -115 at DraftKings, is priced below the fair price of -112 (−1.3% value).
• Spread: AiQ gives Milwaukee Bucks +8.5 a 59% confidence rating to cover, its own model's number rather than a market price. Calibrated against the market and graded results, that is a 49.4% chance; the betting market, with the margin removed, has 51.2%. The best price, -112 at BetRivers, is priced below the fair price of +102 (−6.4% value).

Trends in play.

Recent results against the spread back the Houston Rockets. The Houston Rockets covered the spread in 4 straight games.

Recent totals lean over. The Milwaukee Bucks went over the total in 8 of their last 10 games.

Golden State Warriors at Minnesota Timberwolves

7:00 PM CT at Target Center.

The Golden State Warriors have won 1 of their 4 games this season. The Minnesota Timberwolves have won 3 of their 4 games this season. When these teams last met, on March 13, 2026, the Minnesota Timberwolves won 127-117 on the road.

• Moneyline: AiQ gives Minnesota Timberwolves a 59% confidence rating to beat Golden State Warriors, its own model's number rather than a market price. Calibrated against the market and graded results, that is a 60.9% chance; the betting market, with the margin removed, has 61.1%. The best price, -162 at BetRivers, is priced below the fair price of -155 (−1.6% value).
• Total: AiQ gives the under 227.5 points a 57% confidence rating, its own model's number rather than a market price. Calibrated against the market and graded results, that is a 51.2% chance; the betting market, with the margin removed, has 50.0%. The best price, -108 at DraftKings, is priced below the fair price of -105 (−1.4% value).
• Spread: AiQ gives Golden State Warriors +3.5 a 57% confidence rating to cover, its own model's number rather than a market price. Calibrated against the market and graded results, that is a 47.0% chance; the betting market, with the margin removed, has 48.8%. The price on record, -105, is priced below the fair price of +113 (−8.2% value).

Trends in play.

Against the spread, the records lean toward the Minnesota Timberwolves. The Minnesota Timberwolves covered the spread in 4 straight games. The Golden State Warriors failed to cover the spread in 7 of their last 10 games. The Minnesota Timberwolves covered the spread in 3 of the last 4 meetings with the Golden State Warriors.

Denver Nuggets at New Orleans Pelicans

7:00 PM CT at Smoothie King Center.

The New Orleans Pelicans have lost five straight, a run that goes back to last season, and all three of their games this season. The Denver Nuggets have won 1 of their 3 games this season. The New Orleans Pelicans come in with more rest: their last game was on October 24, four days before this one, while the Denver Nuggets played two days before. When these teams last met, on October 24, 2026, the Denver Nuggets won 141-135 at home. This is their second meeting this season.

• Moneyline: AiQ gives Denver Nuggets a 59% confidence rating to beat New Orleans Pelicans, its own model's number rather than a market price. Calibrated against the market and graded results, that is a 62.1% chance; the betting market, with the margin removed, has 62.4%. The best price, -176 at FanDuel, is priced below the fair price of -164 (−2.6% value).
• Total: AiQ gives the under 240.5 points a 56% confidence rating, its own model's number rather than a market price. Calibrated against the market and graded results, that is a 50.7% chance; the betting market, with the margin removed, has 49.7%. The best price, -105 at BetMGM, is priced below the fair price of -103 (−0.9% value).
• Spread: AiQ gives Denver Nuggets -4.5 a 58% confidence rating to cover, its own model's number rather than a market price. Calibrated against the market and graded results, that is a 48.2% chance; the betting market, with the margin removed, has 50.0%. The price on record, -110, is priced below the fair price of +107 (−7.9% value).

Trends in play.

Recent results against the spread back the New Orleans Pelicans, the underdog here. The Denver Nuggets failed to cover the spread in 4 straight games.

Recent totals lean over. Of the last 4 meetings between the New Orleans Pelicans and the Denver Nuggets, 3 went over the total.

San Antonio Spurs at Utah Jazz

8:00 PM CT at Delta Center.

The San Antonio Spurs have won 2 of their 4 games this season. The Utah Jazz have won 1 of their 4 games this season. When these teams last met, on January 22, 2026, the San Antonio Spurs won 126-109 on the road.

• Moneyline: AiQ gives San Antonio Spurs a 62% confidence rating to beat Utah Jazz, its own model's number rather than a market price. Calibrated against the market and graded results, that is an 83.3% chance; the betting market, with the margin removed, has 85.4%. The price on record, -650, is priced below the fair price of -497 (−3.9% value).
• Total: AiQ gives the under 233.5 points a 58% confidence rating, its own model's number rather than a market price. Calibrated against the market and graded results, that is a 51.4% chance; the betting market, with the margin removed, has 50.0%. The best price, -108 at FanDuel, is priced below the fair price of -106 (−1.1% value).
• Spread: AiQ gives Utah Jazz +13.5 a 60% confidence rating to cover, its own model's number rather than a market price. Calibrated against the market and graded results, that is a 47.1% chance; the betting market, with the margin removed, has 49.4%. The best price, -105 at BetMGM, is priced below the fair price of +112 (−8.0% value).

Trends in play.

Recent results against the spread back the San Antonio Spurs. The Utah Jazz failed to cover the spread in 5 straight games.

Everything points under on the total. Each of the last 3 meetings between the Utah Jazz and the San Antonio Spurs went under the total. The San Antonio Spurs went under the total in 7 of their last 10 games.

Oklahoma City Thunder at Dallas Mavericks

8:30 PM CT at American Airlines Center.

The Oklahoma City Thunder have won all four of their games this season. The Dallas Mavericks have won 2 of their 4 games this season. When these teams last met, on March 1, 2026, the Oklahoma City Thunder won 100-87 on the road.

• Moneyline: AiQ gives Oklahoma City Thunder a 62% confidence rating to beat Dallas Mavericks, its own model's number rather than a market price. Calibrated against the market and graded results, that is a 63.8% chance; the betting market, with the margin removed, has 63.9%. The best price, -167 at BetRivers, is +1.9% value against the fair price of -176.
• Total: AiQ gives the under 228.5 points a 58% confidence rating, its own model's number rather than a market price. Calibrated against the market and graded results, that is a 52.3% chance; the betting market, with the margin removed, has 51.2%. The best price, -113 at BetRivers, is priced below the fair price of -110 (−1.4% value).
• Spread: AiQ gives Oklahoma City Thunder -4.5 a 59% confidence rating to cover, its own model's number rather than a market price. Calibrated against the market and graded results, that is a 49.4% chance; the betting market, with the margin removed, has 51.2%. The best price, -105 at BetRivers, is priced below the fair price of +102 (−3.5% value).

Los Angeles Lakers at LA Clippers

9:30 PM CT at Intuit Dome.

The Los Angeles Lakers have won 3 of their 4 games this season. The LA Clippers have won 1 of their 3 games this season. The LA Clippers come in with more rest: their last game was on October 25, three days before this one, while the Los Angeles Lakers played the day before. When these teams last met, on October 23, 2026, the Los Angeles Lakers won 125-117 at home. This is their second meeting this season.

• Moneyline: AiQ gives Los Angeles Lakers a 59% confidence rating to beat LA Clippers, its own model's number rather than a market price. Calibrated against the market and graded results, that is a 50.4% chance; the betting market, with the margin removed, has 49.5%. The price on record, -108, is priced below the fair price of -102 (−2.9% value).
• Total: AiQ gives the under 224.5 points a 58% confidence rating, its own model's number rather than a market price. No book price at this line is confirmed on the record, so no value figure is given.
• Spread: AiQ gives Los Angeles Lakers +1.5 a 58% confidence rating to cover, its own model's number rather than a market price. No book price at this line is confirmed on the record, so no value figure is given.

Trends in play.

Recent results against the spread back the LA Clippers. The LA Clippers covered the spread in 4 of the last 5 meetings with the Los Angeles Lakers.

These come from the closing lines of this season and last. They are context, not the reason for AiQ's picks, and the books price them in.

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