MLS Slate Analysis — Sunday, November 1, 2026
Sunday, November 1, 2026 · MLS
The MLS slate for Sunday, November 1, 2026 has 6 matchs, the first at 2:30 PM CT. AiQ has a moneyline pick on all 6. None of AiQ's picks on this slate has a price on record above fair value. Each price is the one AiQ valued the pick at when it last priced the game.
Every match
Seattle Sounders FC vs Vancouver Whitecaps
2:30 PM CT at BC Place.
Seattle Sounders FC have won 11, drawn 10 and lost 11 of their 32 matches this season, winning one of the last five. Vancouver Whitecaps have won 17, drawn 7 and lost 8 of their 32 matches this season, winning two of the last five. When these teams last met, on August 16, 2026, Vancouver Whitecaps won 2-0 on the road. This is their second meeting this season.
Matchups to watch.
- An uphill climb in scoring. Seattle Sounders FC averaged 1.28 goals per match this season, the 6th fewest in Major League Soccer, and Vancouver Whitecaps conceded 1.03 goals per match, the 2nd fewest.
- Strength against strength in scoring. Vancouver Whitecaps averaged 2.09 goals per match this season, the 2nd most in Major League Soccer, and Seattle Sounders FC conceded 1.25 goals per match, the 5th fewest.
- Moneyline: AiQ gives Vancouver Whitecaps a 56% confidence rating to beat Seattle Sounders FC, its own model's number rather than a market price. Calibrated against the market and graded results, that is a 55.9% chance; the betting market, with the margin removed, has 55.9%. The price on record, -140, is priced below the fair price of -127 (−4.2% value).
- Total goals: AiQ gives the under 3.5 goals a 54% confidence rating, its own model's number rather than a market price. Calibrated against the market and graded results, that is a 57.7% chance; the betting market, with the margin removed, has 57.9%. The best price, -148 at BetRivers, is priced below the fair price of -137 (−3.3% value).
Trends in play.
Everything points under on the total. Vancouver Whitecaps went under the total in 8 of their last 10 matches. Seattle Sounders FC went under the total in 10 of 13 road matches this season.
Red Bull New York vs Nashville SC
3:30 PM CT at GEODIS Park.
Red Bull New York have won 11, drawn 6 and lost 15 of their 32 matches this season, winning two of the last five. Nashville SC have won 21, drawn 8 and lost 3 of their 32 matches this season, winning three of the last five. When these teams last met, on August 19, 2026, Nashville SC won 1-0 on the road. This is their second meeting this season.
Matchups to watch.
- An uphill climb in scoring. Red Bull New York averaged 1.34 goals per match this season, the 8th fewest in Major League Soccer, and Nashville SC conceded 0.72 goals per match, the fewest.
- Moneyline: AiQ gives Nashville SC a 58% confidence rating to beat Red Bull New York, its own model's number rather than a market price. Calibrated against the market and graded results, that is a 64.4% chance; the betting market, with the margin removed, has 64.6%. The best price, -190 at Fanatics, is priced below the fair price of -181 (−1.7% value).
- Total goals: AiQ gives the under 3.5 goals a 54% confidence rating, its own model's number rather than a market price. Calibrated against the market and graded results, that is a 53.3% chance; the betting market, with the margin removed, has 53.3%. The best price, -127 at BetRivers, is priced below the fair price of -114 (−4.7% value).
Trends in play.
The total pulls both ways. Red Bull New York went under the total in 8 of their last 10 matches. Meanwhile, Nashville SC went over the total in 10 of 13 home matches this season.
Toronto FC vs Atlanta United FC
3:30 PM CT at Mercedes-Benz Stadium.
Atlanta United FC have won 8, drawn 6 and lost 18 of their 32 matches this season, losing the last three. Toronto FC have won 9, drawn 12 and lost 11 of their 32 matches this season, winning three of the last five. When these teams last met, on April 25, 2026, Atlanta United FC won 2-1 on the road. This is their second meeting this season.
Matchups to watch.
- An uphill climb in shots. Toronto FC averaged 12.2 shots per match this season, the 6th fewest in Major League Soccer, and Atlanta United FC faced 12.0 shots per match, the 7th fewest.
- Weakness against weakness in scoring. Atlanta United FC averaged 1.25 goals per match this season, the 4th fewest in Major League Soccer, and Toronto FC conceded 1.88 goals per match, tied for the 6th most.
- Moneyline: AiQ gives a draw between Toronto FC and Atlanta United FC a 58% confidence rating, its own model's number rather than a market price. Calibrated against the market and graded results, that is a 23.7% chance; the betting market, with the margin removed, has 22.5%. The best price, +300 at FanDuel, is priced below the fair price of +323 (−5.4% value).
- Total goals: AiQ gives the under 3.5 goals a 52% confidence rating, its own model's number rather than a market price. Calibrated against the market and graded results, that is a 54.8% chance; the betting market, with the margin removed, has 54.8%. The best price, -129 at BetRivers, is priced below the fair price of -121 (−2.7% value).
Trends in play.
Recent totals lean over. Toronto FC went over the total in 7 of their last 10 matches.
Inter Miami CF vs New England Revolution
6:00 PM CT at Gillette Stadium.
New England Revolution have won 18, drawn 4 and lost 10 of their 32 matches this season, winning the last four. Inter Miami CF have won 15, drawn 11 and lost 6 of their 32 matches this season, winning three of the last five. When these teams last met, on April 25, 2026, they drew 1-1. This is their second meeting this season.
Matchups to watch.
- Strength against strength in scoring. Inter Miami CF averaged 2.34 goals per match this season, the most in Major League Soccer, and New England Revolution conceded 1.38 goals per match, the 7th fewest.
- Moneyline: AiQ gives a draw between Inter Miami CF and New England Revolution a 56% confidence rating, its own model's number rather than a market price. Calibrated against the market and graded results, that is a 24.4% chance; the betting market, with the margin removed, has 23.3%. The best price, +300 at FanDuel, is priced below the fair price of +311 (−2.6% value).
- Total goals: AiQ gives the over 3.5 goals a 54% confidence rating, its own model's number rather than a market price. Calibrated against the market and graded results, that is a 47.4% chance; the betting market, with the margin removed, has 47.1%. The best price, -106 at BetRivers, is priced below the fair price of +111 (−7.8% value).
Minnesota United FC vs Los Angeles FC
7:30 PM CT at BMO Stadium.
Minnesota United FC have won 9, drawn 11 and lost 12 of their 32 matches this season, winning two of the last five. Los Angeles FC have won 12, drawn 11 and lost 9 of their 32 matches this season, winning one of the last five. Los Angeles FC come in with more rest: their last match was on October 25, seven days before this one, while Minnesota United FC played four days before. When these teams last met, on April 25, 2026, Los Angeles FC won 1-0 on the road. This is their second meeting this season.
- Moneyline: AiQ gives LAFC a 56% confidence rating to beat Minnesota United FC, its own model's number rather than a market price. Calibrated against the market and graded results, that is a 58.2% chance; the betting market, with the margin removed, has 58.3%. The best price, -150 at FanDuel, is priced below the fair price of -139 (−2.9% value).
- Total goals: AiQ gives the under 3.5 goals a 58% confidence rating, its own model's number rather than a market price. Calibrated against the market and graded results, that is a 55.0% chance; the betting market, with the margin removed, has 54.8%. The best price, -139 at BetRivers, is priced below the fair price of -122 (−5.5% value).
Trends in play.
Recent totals lean over. Minnesota United FC went over the total in 10 of 13 road matches this season.
Houston Dynamo FC vs Portland Timbers
8:45 PM CT at Providence Park.
Houston Dynamo FC have won 14, drawn 9 and lost 9 of their 32 matches this season, winning one of the last five. Portland Timbers have won 11, drawn 7 and lost 14 of their 32 matches this season, winning two of the last five. When these teams last met, on March 14, 2026, Houston Dynamo FC won 3-2 at home. This is their second meeting this season.
Matchups to watch.
- Weakness against weakness in scoring. Houston Dynamo FC averaged 1.31 goals per match this season, the 7th fewest in Major League Soccer, and Portland Timbers conceded 1.88 goals per match, tied for the 6th most.
- Moneyline: AiQ gives Portland Timbers a 58% confidence rating to beat Houston Dynamo FC, its own model's number rather than a market price. Calibrated against the market and graded results, that is a 55.0% chance; the betting market, with the margin removed, has 54.9%. The best price, -130 at BetMGM, is priced below the fair price of -122 (−2.8% value).
- Total goals: AiQ gives the under 3.5 goals a 58% confidence rating, its own model's number rather than a market price. Calibrated against the market and graded results, that is a 61.3% chance; the betting market, with the margin removed, has 61.5%. The price on record, -180, is priced below the fair price of -159 (−4.6% value).
Trends in play.
Everything points under on the total. Portland Timbers went under the total in 7 of their last 10 matches. Houston Dynamo FC went under the total in 7 of their last 10 matches.
These come from the closing lines of this season and last. They are context, not the reason for AiQ's picks, and the books price them in.