NCAAF Slate Analysis — Wednesday, October 28, 2026
Wednesday, October 28, 2026 · NCAAF
These games have been played. Picks and prices, where shown, are AiQ's from before each game started. See how they finished in the NCAAF recaps.
The NCAAF slate for Wednesday, October 28, 2026 has 2 games, the first at 6:00 PM CT. AiQ has a moneyline pick on all 2. None of AiQ's picks on this slate has a price on record above fair value. Each price is the one AiQ valued the pick at when it last priced the game.
Every game
Kennesaw State Owls at Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders
6:00 PM CT at Johnny "Red" Floyd Stadium. Averaged over the outcomes the betting lines imply, the projected score is Kennesaw State Owls 26, Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders 26. That is an average, not a pick.
The Kennesaw State Owls have won 1 of their 7 games this season, losing the last six. The Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders have won 4 of their 7 games this season. The Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders come in with more rest: their last game was on October 20, eight days before this one, while the Kennesaw State Owls played six days before.
Matchups to watch.
- Weakness against weakness on the ground. The Kennesaw State Owls averaged 132.0 rushing yards per game this season, the 34th fewest of 138 FBS teams, and the Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders allowed 194.7 rushing yards per game, the 13th most.
- Moneyline: The betting market, with the margin removed, gives Kennesaw State Owls a 50.2% chance to beat Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders. AiQ's moneyline pick is the side the consensus favors, here by less than a point. The price on record, -112, is priced below the fair price of -101 (−4.9% value).
- Total: The betting market, with the margin removed, puts the over 50.5 points at 50.0% and the under at 50.0%. That is near a coin flip, and AiQ's read is the market's own, so AiQ has no edge on the total. AiQ's projected total, 51.2 points, sits on the 50.5 line.
- Spread: The betting market, with the margin removed, gives Kennesaw State Owls -1 a 48.9% chance to cover and Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders +1 51.1%. That is near a coin flip, and AiQ's read is the market's own, so AiQ has no edge on the spread.
Trends in play.
Recent results against the spread back the Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders, the underdog here. The Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders covered the spread in 8 of their last 10 games.
Recent totals lean under. The Kennesaw State Owls went under the total in 7 of their last 10 games (1 push).
Jacksonville State Gamecocks at New Mexico State Aggies
7:00 PM CT at Aggie Memorial Stadium. Averaged over the outcomes the betting lines imply, the projected score is Jacksonville State Gamecocks 27, New Mexico State Aggies 24. That is an average, not a pick.
The Jacksonville State Gamecocks have won 5 of their 7 games this season, winning the last four. The New Mexico State Aggies have won 3 of their 7 games this season.
- Moneyline: The betting market, with the margin removed, gives Jacksonville State Gamecocks a 59.2% chance to beat New Mexico State Aggies. AiQ's moneyline pick is the side the consensus favors. The price on record, -155, is priced below the fair price of -145 (−2.6% value).
- Total: The betting market, with the margin removed, puts the over 50.5 points at 49.7% and the under at 50.3%. That is near a coin flip, and AiQ's read is the market's own, so AiQ has no edge on the total. AiQ's projected total, 51.1 points, sits on the 50.5 line.
- Spread: The betting market, with the margin removed, gives Jacksonville State Gamecocks -3 a 51.1% chance to cover and New Mexico State Aggies +3 48.9%. That is near a coin flip, and AiQ's read is the market's own, so AiQ has no edge on the spread.
These come from the closing lines of this season and last. They are context, not the reason for AiQ's picks, and the books price them in.