NCAAF Slate Analysis — Wednesday, October 21, 2026
Wednesday, October 21, 2026 · NCAAF
These games have been played. Picks and prices, where shown, are AiQ's from before each game started. See how they finished in the NCAAF recaps.
The NCAAF slate for Wednesday, October 21, 2026 has 1 game, at 7:00 PM CT. AiQ has a moneyline pick on it. None of AiQ's picks on this slate has a price on record above fair value. Each price is the one AiQ valued the pick at when it last priced the game.
Every game
New Mexico State Aggies at Sam Houston Bearkats
7:00 PM CT at Elliott T. Bowers Stadium. Averaged over the outcomes the betting lines imply, the projected score is New Mexico State Aggies 25, Sam Houston Bearkats 22. That is an average, not a pick.
The Sam Houston Bearkats have won 1 of their 6 games this season, losing the last three. The New Mexico State Aggies have won 2 of their 6 games this season. The New Mexico State Aggies come in with more rest: their last game was on October 7, 14 days before this one, while the Sam Houston Bearkats played seven days before. When these teams last met, on October 2, 2025, the New Mexico State Aggies won 37-10 at home.
- Moneyline: The betting market, with the margin removed, gives New Mexico State Aggies a 59.4% chance to beat Sam Houston Bearkats. AiQ's moneyline pick is the side the consensus favors. The price on record, -162, is priced below the fair price of -146 (−4.0% value).
- Total: The betting market, with the margin removed, puts the over 46.5 points at 50.9% and the under at 49.1%. That is near a coin flip, and AiQ's read is the market's own, so AiQ has no edge on the total. AiQ's projected total, 47.6 points, comes from the same market prices, so it adds nothing to them.
- Spread: The betting market, with the margin removed, gives New Mexico State Aggies -3 a 50.6% chance to cover and Sam Houston Bearkats +3 49.4%. That is near a coin flip, and AiQ's read is the market's own, so AiQ has no edge on the spread.