NBA Slate Analysis — Friday, November 6, 2026

Friday, November 6, 2026 · NBA

The NBA slate for Friday, November 6, 2026 has 9 games, the first at 6:00 PM CT. AiQ has a moneyline pick on all 9. Of AiQ's picks on this slate, 2 have a price on record above fair value. Each price is the one AiQ valued the pick at when it last priced the game.

Best value

• Minnesota Timberwolves at New Orleans Pelicans: Minnesota Timberwolves on the moneyline (-162 at BetRivers, +1.9% value).
• Oklahoma City Thunder at Memphis Grizzlies: Memphis Grizzlies on the moneyline (+145 at BetRivers, +0.9% value).

Every game

Washington Wizards at Atlanta Hawks

6:00 PM CT at State Farm Arena.

The Washington Wizards have won 4 of their 8 games this season, winning two of the last five. The Atlanta Hawks have won 5 of their 9 games this season, winning three of the last five. When these teams last met, on November 4, 2026, the Atlanta Hawks won 120-105 on the road. This is their second meeting this season.

Matchups to watch.

• An uphill climb from three. The Washington Wizards made 29.4% of their three-point attempts this season, the 2nd lowest in the NBA, and the Atlanta Hawks allowed opponents to make 30.2% of their three-point attempts, the 3rd lowest.
• An uphill climb in shooting. The Atlanta Hawks made 44.5% of their shots this season, the 8th lowest in the NBA, and the Washington Wizards allowed opponents to make 42.6% of their shots, the 2nd lowest.

• Moneyline: AiQ gives Atlanta Hawks a 62% confidence rating to beat Washington Wizards, its own model's number rather than a market price. Calibrated against the market and graded results, that is a 69.1% chance; the betting market, with the margin removed, has 69.0%. The best price, -235 at BetMGM, is priced below the fair price of -224 (−1.4% value).
• Total: AiQ gives the over 230.5 points a 58% confidence rating, its own model's number rather than a market price. Calibrated against the market and graded results, that is a 50.7% chance; the betting market, with the margin removed, has 50.0%. The price on record, -110, is priced below the fair price of -103 (−3.2% value).
• Spread: AiQ gives Washington Wizards +6.5 a 57% confidence rating to cover, its own model's number rather than a market price. Calibrated against the market and graded results, that is a 48.8% chance; the betting market, with the margin removed, has 50.0%. The best price, -104 at FanDuel, is priced below the fair price of +105 (−4.3% value).

Trends in play.

Recent totals lean under. The last 7 games involving the Washington Wizards went under the total.

Against the spread, the records pull in opposite directions. The Atlanta Hawks covered the spread in 4 of the last 5 meetings with the Washington Wizards. Meanwhile, the Atlanta Hawks failed to cover the spread in 7 of their last 10 games.

Boston Celtics at Charlotte Hornets

6:00 PM CT at Spectrum Center.

The Charlotte Hornets have won 3 of their 9 games this season, losing the last five. The Boston Celtics have won 6 of their 8 games this season, winning four of the last five. When these teams last met, on April 7, 2026, the Boston Celtics won 113-102 at home.

Matchups to watch.

• An uphill climb in scoring. The Charlotte Hornets averaged 98.1 points per game this season, the fewest in the NBA, and the Boston Celtics allowed 108.3 points per game, the 6th fewest.

• Moneyline: AiQ gives Boston Celtics a 62% confidence rating to beat Charlotte Hornets, its own model's number rather than a market price. Calibrated against the market and graded results, that is a 76.3% chance; the betting market, with the margin removed, has 76.0%. The best price, -340 at FanDuel, is priced below the fair price of -321 (−1.3% value).
• Total: AiQ gives the under 210.5 points a 57% confidence rating, its own model's number rather than a market price. Calibrated against the market and graded results, that is a 49.8% chance; the betting market, with the margin removed, has 49.1%. The best price, -105 at Caesars, is priced below the fair price of +101 (−2.8% value).
• Spread: AiQ gives Boston Celtics -8.5 a 58% confidence rating to cover, its own model's number rather than a market price. Calibrated against the market and graded results, that is a 48.6% chance; the betting market, with the margin removed, has 50.0%. The best price, -105 at FanDuel, is priced below the fair price of +106 (−5.0% value).

Trends in play.

Everything points under on the total. Each of the last 3 meetings between the Charlotte Hornets and the Boston Celtics went under the total. The Charlotte Hornets went under the total in 7 of their last 10 games.

Recent results against the spread back the Boston Celtics. The Charlotte Hornets failed to cover the spread in 8 of their last 10 games.

Philadelphia 76ers at Cleveland Cavaliers

6:30 PM CT at Rocket Arena.

The Philadelphia 76ers have won 8 of their 9 games this season, winning the last five. The Cleveland Cavaliers have won 4 of their 8 games this season, winning two of the last five. When these teams last met, on October 22, 2026, the Philadelphia 76ers won 114-106 at home. This is their second meeting this season.

Matchups to watch.

• Strength against strength in scoring. The Cleveland Cavaliers averaged 119.3 points per game this season, the 5th most in the NBA, and the Philadelphia 76ers allowed 105.2 points per game, the 3rd fewest.

• Moneyline: AiQ gives Philadelphia 76ers a 62% confidence rating to beat Cleveland Cavaliers, its own model's number rather than a market price. Calibrated against the market and graded results, that is a 54.7% chance; the betting market, with the margin removed, has 54.9%. The price on record, -132, is priced below the fair price of -121 (−3.9% value).
• Total: AiQ gives the over 228.5 points a 57% confidence rating, its own model's number rather than a market price. Calibrated against the market and graded results, that is a 50.6% chance; the betting market, with the margin removed, has 50.0%. The best price, -107 at BetRivers, is priced below the fair price of -103 (−2.1% value).
• Spread: AiQ gives Cleveland Cavaliers +2.5 a 57% confidence rating to cover, its own model's number rather than a market price. Calibrated against the market and graded results, that is a 48.8% chance; the betting market, with the margin removed, has 50.0%. The best price, -105 at Fanatics, is priced below the fair price of +105 (−4.7% value).

Trends in play.

Against the spread, the records lean toward the Philadelphia 76ers. The Philadelphia 76ers covered the spread in 4 straight games. The Cleveland Cavaliers failed to cover the spread in 8 of their last 10 games.

Recent totals lean under. The Philadelphia 76ers went under the total in 7 of their last 10 games.

Utah Jazz at Dallas Mavericks

7:00 PM CT at American Airlines Center.

The Utah Jazz have won 1 of their 8 games this season, losing the last six. The Dallas Mavericks have won 4 of their 8 games this season, winning three of the last five. When these teams last met, on January 17, 2026, the Dallas Mavericks won 138-120 at home.

Matchups to watch.

• An uphill climb from three. The Utah Jazz made 31.5% of their three-point attempts this season, the 4th lowest in the NBA, and the Dallas Mavericks allowed opponents to make 29.9% of their three-point attempts, the lowest.

• Moneyline: AiQ gives Dallas Mavericks a 59% confidence rating to beat Utah Jazz, its own model's number rather than a market price. Calibrated against the market and graded results, that is a 70.2% chance; the betting market, with the margin removed, has 70.0%. The price on record, -253, is priced below the fair price of -236 (−2.0% value).
• Total: AiQ gives the over 226.5 points a 62% confidence rating, its own model's number rather than a market price. Calibrated against the market and graded results, that is a 51.5% chance; the betting market, with the margin removed, has 50.5%. The best price, -110 at Caesars, is priced below the fair price of -106 (−1.7% value).
• Spread: AiQ gives Dallas Mavericks -7.5 a 62% confidence rating to cover, its own model's number rather than a market price. Calibrated against the market and graded results, that is a 46.9% chance; the betting market, with the margin removed, has 49.1%. The best price, -105 at Caesars, is priced below the fair price of +113 (−8.5% value).

Trends in play.

Recent results against the spread back the Dallas Mavericks. The Utah Jazz failed to cover the spread in 8 of their last 10 games.

The total pulls both ways. The Utah Jazz went under the total in 7 of their last 10 games (1 push). Meanwhile, of the last 4 meetings between the Dallas Mavericks and the Utah Jazz, 3 went over the total.

Oklahoma City Thunder at Memphis Grizzlies

7:00 PM CT at FedExForum.

Both teams have won 6 of their 8 games this season, winning three of the last five. When these teams last met, on January 9, 2026, the Oklahoma City Thunder won 117-116 on the road.

Matchups to watch.

• An uphill climb in shooting. The Oklahoma City Thunder made 44.0% of their shots this season, the 7th lowest in the NBA, and the Memphis Grizzlies allowed opponents to make 43.7% of their shots, the 8th lowest.
• Strength against strength in shooting. The Memphis Grizzlies made 47.3% of their shots this season, the 8th highest in the NBA, and the Oklahoma City Thunder allowed opponents to make 43.2% of their shots, tied for the 3rd lowest.

• Moneyline: AiQ gives Memphis Grizzlies a 62% confidence rating to beat Oklahoma City Thunder, its own model's number rather than a market price. Calibrated against the market and graded results, that is a 41.2% chance; the betting market, with the margin removed, has 41.6%. The best price, +145 at BetRivers, is +0.9% value against the fair price of +143.
• Total: AiQ gives the under 225.5 points a 58% confidence rating, its own model's number rather than a market price. Calibrated against the market and graded results, that is a 50.7% chance; the betting market, with the margin removed, has 50.0%. The price on record, -110, is priced below the fair price of -103 (−3.2% value).
• Spread: AiQ gives Memphis Grizzlies +3.5 a 60% confidence rating to cover, its own model's number rather than a market price. Calibrated against the market and graded results, that is a 48.3% chance; the betting market, with the margin removed, has 50.0%. The best price, -105 at FanDuel, is priced below the fair price of +107 (−5.7% value).

Trends in play.

Recent totals lean under. The Oklahoma City Thunder went under the total in 7 of their last 10 games.

Toronto Raptors at Milwaukee Bucks

7:00 PM CT at Fiserv Forum.

The Milwaukee Bucks have won 1 of their 8 games this season, losing the last four. The Toronto Raptors have won 4 of their 8 games this season, winning two of the last five. When these teams last met, on February 22, 2026, the Toronto Raptors won 122-94 on the road.

Matchups to watch.

• Mismatch in scoring. The Toronto Raptors averaged 117.9 points per game this season, tied for the 8th most in the NBA, and the Milwaukee Bucks allowed 122.3 points per game, the 5th most.

• Moneyline: AiQ gives Toronto Raptors a 59% confidence rating to beat Milwaukee Bucks, its own model's number rather than a market price. Calibrated against the market and graded results, that is a 71.1% chance; the betting market, with the margin removed, has 70.8%. The best price, -245 at BetRivers, is priced near the fair price of -246 (+0.1% value).
• Total: AiQ gives the over 230.5 points a 57% confidence rating, its own model's number rather than a market price. Calibrated against the market and graded results, that is a 51.6% chance; the betting market, with the margin removed, has 51.0%. The price on record, -115, is priced below the fair price of -107 (−3.6% value).
• Spread: AiQ gives Toronto Raptors -6.5 a 58% confidence rating to cover, its own model's number rather than a market price. Calibrated against the market and graded results, that is a 50.1% chance; the betting market, with the margin removed, has 51.3%. The price on record, -116, is priced below the fair price of -101 (−6.7% value).

Trends in play.

The total pulls both ways. The last 5 games involving the Toronto Raptors went over the total. Meanwhile, the Milwaukee Bucks went over the total in 7 of their last 10 games. Of the last 4 meetings between the Milwaukee Bucks and the Toronto Raptors, 3 went under the total.

Against the spread, the records lean toward the Toronto Raptors. The Toronto Raptors covered the spread in 4 of 5 games as favorites this season. The Toronto Raptors covered the spread in 3 of the last 4 meetings with the Milwaukee Bucks.

Minnesota Timberwolves at New Orleans Pelicans

7:00 PM CT at Smoothie King Center.

The New Orleans Pelicans have won 4 of their 8 games this season, winning the last four. The Minnesota Timberwolves have won 6 of their 9 games this season, winning three of the last five. When these teams last met, on April 12, 2026, the Minnesota Timberwolves won 132-126 at home.

Matchups to watch.

• Strength against strength from three. The Minnesota Timberwolves made 38.0% of their three-point attempts this season, the 6th highest in the NBA, and the New Orleans Pelicans allowed opponents to make 31.3% of their three-point attempts, tied for the 5th lowest.
• Strength against strength in scoring. The New Orleans Pelicans averaged 121.6 points per game this season, the 3rd most in the NBA, and the Minnesota Timberwolves allowed 107.6 points per game, tied for the 4th fewest.

• Moneyline: AiQ gives Minnesota Timberwolves a 62% confidence rating to beat New Orleans Pelicans, its own model's number rather than a market price. Calibrated against the market and graded results, that is a 63.0% chance; the betting market, with the margin removed, has 63.0%. The best price, -162 at BetRivers, is +1.9% value against the fair price of -170.
• Total: AiQ gives the over 230.5 points a 62% confidence rating, its own model's number rather than a market price. Calibrated against the market and graded results, that is a 50.7% chance; the betting market, with the margin removed, has 49.5%. The best price, -106 at DraftKings, is priced below the fair price of -103 (−1.5% value).
• Spread: AiQ gives New Orleans Pelicans +4.5 a 59% confidence rating to cover, its own model's number rather than a market price. Calibrated against the market and graded results, that is a 48.5% chance; the betting market, with the margin removed, has 50.0%. The price on record, -110, is priced below the fair price of +106 (−7.5% value).

Trends in play.

Against the spread, the records pull in opposite directions. The Minnesota Timberwolves covered the spread in 5 of 5 road games this season. Meanwhile, the New Orleans Pelicans covered the spread in 4 straight games. The New Orleans Pelicans covered the spread in 3 of the last 4 meetings with the Minnesota Timberwolves.

Everything points over on the total. The New Orleans Pelicans went over the total in 7 of their last 10 games. Of the last 4 meetings between the New Orleans Pelicans and the Minnesota Timberwolves, 3 went over the total.

Portland Trail Blazers at Los Angeles Lakers

9:00 PM CT at crypto.com Arena.

The Portland Trail Blazers have won 6 of their 7 games this season, winning the last three. The Los Angeles Lakers have won 7 of their 9 games this season, winning the last three. When these teams last met, on October 27, 2026, the Portland Trail Blazers won 136-129 on the road. This is their second meeting this season.

Matchups to watch.

• Strength against strength from three. The Los Angeles Lakers made 38.8% of their three-point attempts this season, the 3rd highest in the NBA, and the Portland Trail Blazers allowed opponents to make 31.5% of their three-point attempts, tied for the 7th lowest.

• Moneyline: AiQ gives Los Angeles Lakers a 62% confidence rating to beat Portland Trail Blazers, its own model's number rather than a market price. Calibrated against the market and graded results, that is a 57.6% chance; the betting market, with the margin removed, has 57.7%. The price on record, -148, is priced below the fair price of -136 (−3.5% value).
• Total: AiQ gives the over 232.5 points a 58% confidence rating, its own model's number rather than a market price. Calibrated against the market and graded results, that is a 50.7% chance; the betting market, with the margin removed, has 50.0%. The best price, -107 at DraftKings, is priced below the fair price of -103 (−1.9% value).
• Spread: AiQ gives Los Angeles Lakers -2.5 a 59% confidence rating to cover, its own model's number rather than a market price. Calibrated against the market and graded results, that is a 49.8% chance; the betting market, with the margin removed, has 51.2%. The best price, -114 at FanDuel, is priced below the fair price of +101 (−6.5% value).

Trends in play.

Everything points over on the total. Each of the last 4 meetings between the Los Angeles Lakers and the Portland Trail Blazers went over the total. The Los Angeles Lakers went over the total in 4 of 5 home games this season.

Against the spread, the records pull in opposite directions. The Portland Trail Blazers covered the spread in 4 of 5 road games this season. Meanwhile, the Los Angeles Lakers covered the spread in 7 of their last 10 games. The Portland Trail Blazers covered the spread in 3 of the last 4 meetings with the Los Angeles Lakers.

San Antonio Spurs at Sacramento Kings

9:00 PM CT at Golden 1 Center.

The San Antonio Spurs have won 6 of their 8 games this season, winning the last six. The Sacramento Kings have won 1 of their 8 games this season, winning one of the last five. When these teams last met, on October 27, 2026, the San Antonio Spurs won 130-103 at home. This is their second meeting this season.

Matchups to watch.

• Weakness against weakness from three. The Sacramento Kings made 32.5% of their three-point attempts this season, the 8th lowest in the NBA, and the San Antonio Spurs allowed opponents to make 37.1% of their three-point attempts, the 5th highest.

• Moneyline: AiQ gives San Antonio Spurs a 91% confidence rating to beat Sacramento Kings, its own model's number rather than a market price. Calibrated against the market and graded results, that is a 90.1% chance; the betting market, with the margin removed, has 90.2%. The best price, -1000 at BetRivers, is priced below the fair price of -914 (−0.9% value).
• Total: AiQ gives the under 229.5 points a 57% confidence rating, its own model's number rather than a market price. Calibrated against the market and graded results, that is a 50.6% chance; the betting market, with the margin removed, has 50.0%. The price on record, -110, is priced below the fair price of -103 (−3.3% value).
• Spread: AiQ gives San Antonio Spurs -14.5 a 59% confidence rating to cover, its own model's number rather than a market price. Calibrated against the market and graded results, that is a 50.1% chance; the betting market, with the margin removed, has 51.4%. The price on record, -116, is priced below the fair price of -100 (−6.7% value).

Trends in play.

The total pulls both ways. The San Antonio Spurs went under the total in 8 of their last 10 games. Meanwhile, of the last 4 meetings between the Sacramento Kings and the San Antonio Spurs, 3 went over the total.

Against the spread, the records lean toward the San Antonio Spurs. The Sacramento Kings failed to cover the spread in 6 of 8 games as underdogs this season. The San Antonio Spurs covered the spread in 3 of the last 4 meetings with the Sacramento Kings.

These come from the closing lines of this season and last. They are context, not the reason for AiQ's picks, and the books price them in.

• All NBA slate analysis
• NBA game recaps