NBA Slate Analysis — Monday, October 26, 2026

Monday, October 26, 2026 · NBA

These games have been played. Picks and prices, where shown, are AiQ's from before each game started. See how they finished in the NBA recaps.

The NBA slate for Monday, October 26, 2026 has 9 games, the first at 6:00 PM CT. AiQ has a moneyline pick on all 9. Of AiQ's picks on this slate, 1 has a price on record above fair value. Each price is the one AiQ valued the pick at when it last priced the game.

Best value

• Indiana Pacers at Milwaukee Bucks: Over 238.5 points (-110, +1.2% value).

Every game

Washington Wizards at Charlotte Hornets

6:00 PM CT at Spectrum Center.

Both teams have won 2 of their 3 games this season. When these teams last met, on February 22, 2026, the Charlotte Hornets won 129-112 on the road.

• Moneyline: AiQ gives Charlotte Hornets a 62% confidence rating to beat Washington Wizards, its own model's number rather than a market price. Calibrated against the market and graded results, that is a 57.1% chance; the betting market, with the margin removed, has 56.7%. The price on record, -142, is priced below the fair price of -133 (−2.6% value).
• Total: AiQ gives the under 227.5 points a 57% confidence rating, its own model's number rather than a market price. Calibrated against the market and graded results, that is a 52.2% chance; the betting market, with the margin removed, has 50.6%. The best price, -110 at Caesars, is priced near the fair price of -109 (−0.4% value).
• Spread: AiQ gives Washington Wizards +2.5 a 59% confidence rating to cover, its own model's number rather than a market price. Calibrated against the market and graded results, that is a 47.6% chance; the betting market, with the margin removed, has 49.5%. The best price, -105 at BetMGM, is priced below the fair price of +110 (−7.2% value).

Trends in play.

Against the spread, the records lean toward the Charlotte Hornets. The Washington Wizards failed to cover the spread in 7 of their last 10 games. The Charlotte Hornets covered the spread in 3 of the last 4 meetings with the Washington Wizards.

Recent totals lean over. Of the last 4 meetings between the Charlotte Hornets and the Washington Wizards, 3 went over the total.

Minnesota Timberwolves at Cleveland Cavaliers

6:00 PM CT at Rocket Arena.

The Minnesota Timberwolves have won all three of their games this season. The Cleveland Cavaliers have won 1 of their 2 games this season. When these teams last met, on January 10, 2026, the Cleveland Cavaliers won 146-134 at home.

• Moneyline: AiQ gives Cleveland Cavaliers a 62% confidence rating to beat Minnesota Timberwolves, its own model's number rather than a market price. Calibrated against the market and graded results, that is a 61.7% chance; the betting market, with the margin removed, has 61.7%. The best price, -168 at FanDuel, is priced below the fair price of -161 (−1.6% value).
• Total: AiQ gives the under 232.5 points a 57% confidence rating, its own model's number rather than a market price. Calibrated against the market and graded results, that is a 52.6% chance; the betting market, with the margin removed, has 51.2%. The price on record, -115, is priced below the fair price of -111 (−1.6% value).
• Spread: AiQ gives Minnesota Timberwolves +4.5 a 58% confidence rating to cover, its own model's number rather than a market price. Calibrated against the market and graded results, that is a 48.3% chance; the betting market, with the margin removed, has 50.0%. The best price, -109 at BetRivers, is priced below the fair price of +107 (−7.3% value).

Trends in play.

Recent results against the spread back the Minnesota Timberwolves, the underdog here. The Cleveland Cavaliers failed to cover the spread in 6 straight games.

Recent totals lean over. The Cleveland Cavaliers went over the total in 7 of their last 10 games.

Chicago Bulls at Boston Celtics

6:30 PM CT at TD Garden.

The Chicago Bulls have won 1 of their 3 games this season. The Boston Celtics have won 1 of their 2 games this season. When these teams last met, on February 11, 2026, the Boston Celtics won 124-105 at home.

• Moneyline: AiQ gives Boston Celtics a 62% confidence rating to beat Chicago Bulls, its own model's number rather than a market price. Calibrated against the market and graded results, that is an 85.2% chance; the betting market, with the margin removed, has 87.0%. The price on record, -750, is priced below the fair price of -575 (−3.5% value).
• Total: AiQ gives the under 232.5 points a 57% confidence rating, its own model's number rather than a market price. Calibrated against the market and graded results, that is a 51.4% chance; the betting market, with the margin removed, has 49.5%. The best price, -105 at DraftKings, is priced near the fair price of -106 (+0.4% value).
• Spread: AiQ gives Chicago Bulls +13.5 a 59% confidence rating to cover, its own model's number rather than a market price. Calibrated against the market and graded results, that is a 46.3% chance; the betting market, with the margin removed, has 48.5%. The best price, -104 at FanDuel, is priced below the fair price of +116 (−9.2% value).

Trends in play.

Everything points under on the total. The Boston Celtics went under the total in 7 of their last 10 games. The Chicago Bulls went under the total in 7 of their last 10 games.

Dallas Mavericks at Miami Heat

6:30 PM CT at Kaseya Center.

The Miami Heat have lost four straight, a run that goes back to last season, and all three of their games this season. The Dallas Mavericks have won 1 of their 3 games this season. When these teams last met, on December 3, 2025, the Dallas Mavericks won 118-108 at home.

• Moneyline: AiQ gives Miami Heat a 62% confidence rating to beat Dallas Mavericks, its own model's number rather than a market price. Calibrated against the market and graded results, that is a 71.6% chance; the betting market, with the margin removed, has 72.3%. The best price, -267 at Caesars, is priced below the fair price of -252 (−1.6% value).
• Total: AiQ gives the over 241.5 points a 57% confidence rating, its own model's number rather than a market price. Calibrated against the market and graded results, that is a 50.9% chance; the betting market, with the margin removed, has 48.8%. The price on record, -105, is priced below the fair price of -104 (−0.7% value).
• Spread: AiQ gives Miami Heat -7.5 a 59% confidence rating to cover, its own model's number rather than a market price. Calibrated against the market and graded results, that is a 49.5% chance; the betting market, with the margin removed, has 51.2%. The best price, -110 at Caesars, is priced below the fair price of +102 (−5.5% value).

Trends in play.

Recent results against the spread back the Dallas Mavericks, the underdog here. The Miami Heat failed to cover the spread in 7 of their last 10 games.

Recent totals lean over. The Miami Heat went over the total in 7 of their last 10 games.

Indiana Pacers at Milwaukee Bucks

7:00 PM CT at Fiserv Forum.

The Milwaukee Bucks have lost four straight, a run that goes back to last season, and all three of their games this season. The Indiana Pacers have won 2 of their 3 games this season. When these teams last met, on March 15, 2026, the Milwaukee Bucks won 134-123 at home.

• Moneyline: AiQ gives Milwaukee Bucks a 62% confidence rating to beat Indiana Pacers, its own model's number rather than a market price. Calibrated against the market and graded results, that is a 40.1% chance; the betting market, with the margin removed, has 38.3%. The best price, +150 at FanDuel, is priced near the fair price of +150 (+0.1% value).
• Total: AiQ gives the over 238.5 points a 62% confidence rating, its own model's number rather than a market price. Calibrated against the market and graded results, that is a 53.0% chance; the betting market, with the margin removed, has 50.0%. The price on record, -110, is +1.2% value against the fair price of -113.
• Spread: AiQ gives Indiana Pacers -4.5 a 58% confidence rating to cover, its own model's number rather than a market price. Calibrated against the market and graded results, that is a 47.8% chance; the betting market, with the margin removed, has 49.5%. The best price, -105 at Fanatics, is priced below the fair price of +109 (−6.8% value).

Trends in play.

The total pulls both ways. The last 6 games involving the Milwaukee Bucks went over the total. Meanwhile, of the last 4 meetings between the Milwaukee Bucks and the Indiana Pacers, 3 went under the total.

Recent results against the spread back the Milwaukee Bucks, the underdog here. The Milwaukee Bucks covered the spread in 3 of the last 4 meetings with the Indiana Pacers.

Phoenix Suns at Oklahoma City Thunder

7:00 PM CT at Paycom Center.

The Oklahoma City Thunder have won all three of their games this season. The Phoenix Suns have won 1 of their 2 games this season. When these teams last met, on April 27, 2026, the Oklahoma City Thunder won 131-122 on the road.

• Moneyline: AiQ gives Oklahoma City Thunder a 62% confidence rating to beat Phoenix Suns, its own model's number rather than a market price. Calibrated against the market and graded results, that is a 73.9% chance; the betting market, with the margin removed, has 74.9%. The best price, -320 at FanDuel, is priced below the fair price of -284 (−2.9% value).
• Total: AiQ gives the under 221.5 points a 58% confidence rating, its own model's number rather than a market price. Calibrated against the market and graded results, that is a 52.0% chance; the betting market, with the margin removed, has 50.0%. The price on record, -110, is priced below the fair price of -108 (−0.7% value).
• Spread: AiQ gives Oklahoma City Thunder -8.5 a 59% confidence rating to cover, its own model's number rather than a market price. Calibrated against the market and graded results, that is a 48.1% chance; the betting market, with the margin removed, has 50.0%. The best price, -102 at FanDuel, is priced below the fair price of +108 (−4.7% value).

Trends in play.

Recent totals lean over. Of the last 9 meetings between the Oklahoma City Thunder and the Phoenix Suns, 7 went over the total.

Atlanta Hawks at Houston Rockets

7:30 PM CT at Toyota Center (Houston).

The Houston Rockets have won all three of their games this season. The Atlanta Hawks have won 2 of their 3 games this season. When these teams last met, on October 24, 2026, the Houston Rockets won 121-114 on the road. This is their second meeting this season.

• Moneyline: AiQ gives Houston Rockets a 62% confidence rating to beat Atlanta Hawks, its own model's number rather than a market price. Calibrated against the market and graded results, that is a 63.8% chance; the betting market, with the margin removed, has 63.9%. The best price, -186 at FanDuel, is priced below the fair price of -176 (−1.9% value).
• Total: AiQ gives the under 228.5 points a 57% confidence rating, its own model's number rather than a market price. Calibrated against the market and graded results, that is a 50.9% chance; the betting market, with the margin removed, has 48.8%. The price on record, -105, is priced below the fair price of -104 (−0.7% value).
• Spread: AiQ gives Houston Rockets -4.5 a 59% confidence rating to cover, its own model's number rather than a market price. Calibrated against the market and graded results, that is a 49.2% chance; the betting market, with the margin removed, has 50.9%. The best price, -110 at BetMGM, is priced below the fair price of +103 (−6.0% value).

Trends in play.

Recent results against the spread back the Houston Rockets. The Houston Rockets covered the spread in each of the last 3 meetings with the Atlanta Hawks.

Memphis Grizzlies at Utah Jazz

8:00 PM CT at Delta Center.

The Memphis Grizzlies have won all three of their games this season. The Utah Jazz have won 1 of their 3 games this season. When these teams last met, on October 21, 2026, the Memphis Grizzlies won 123-103 at home. This is their second meeting this season.

• Moneyline: AiQ gives Memphis Grizzlies a 59% confidence rating to beat Utah Jazz, its own model's number rather than a market price. Calibrated against the market and graded results, that is a 50.6% chance; the betting market, with the margin removed, has 50.0%. The price on record, -110, is priced below the fair price of -103 (−3.3% value).
• Total: AiQ gives the over 237.5 points a 62% confidence rating, its own model's number rather than a market price. No book price at this line is confirmed on the record, so no value figure is given.
• Spread: AiQ gives Utah Jazz +1.5 a 59% confidence rating to cover, its own model's number rather than a market price. No book price at this line is confirmed on the record, so no value figure is given.

Trends in play.

Recent results against the spread back the Memphis Grizzlies. The Utah Jazz failed to cover the spread in 4 straight games.

Golden State Warriors at Denver Nuggets

9:00 PM CT at Ball Arena.

The Golden State Warriors have lost four straight, a run that goes back to last season, and all three of their games this season. The Denver Nuggets have won 1 of their 2 games this season. When these teams last met, on March 29, 2026, the Denver Nuggets won 116-93 at home.

• Moneyline: AiQ gives Denver Nuggets a 62% confidence rating to beat Golden State Warriors, its own model's number rather than a market price. Calibrated against the market and graded results, that is a 70.6% chance; the betting market, with the margin removed, has 71.3%. The best price, -260 at FanDuel, is priced below the fair price of -240 (−2.2% value).
• Total: AiQ gives the under 236.5 points a 57% confidence rating, its own model's number rather than a market price. Calibrated against the market and graded results, that is a 51.8% chance; the betting market, with the margin removed, has 50.0%. The best price, -109 at BetRivers, is priced below the fair price of -107 (−0.8% value).
• Spread: AiQ gives Denver Nuggets -7.5 a 60% confidence rating to cover, its own model's number rather than a market price. Calibrated against the market and graded results, that is a 46.5% chance; the betting market, with the margin removed, has 48.8%. The price on record, -105, is priced below the fair price of +115 (−9.2% value).

Trends in play.

Recent results against the spread back the Denver Nuggets. The Golden State Warriors failed to cover the spread in 7 of their last 10 games.

Recent totals lean over. Of the last 4 meetings between the Denver Nuggets and the Golden State Warriors, 3 went over the total.

These come from the closing lines of this season and last. They are context, not the reason for AiQ's picks, and the books price them in.

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