NBA Slate Analysis — Saturday, October 24, 2026

Saturday, October 24, 2026 · NBA

These games have been played. Picks and prices, where shown, are AiQ's from before each game started. See how they finished in the NBA recaps.

The NBA slate for Saturday, October 24, 2026 has 8 games, the first at 5:00 PM CT. AiQ has a moneyline pick on all 8. Of AiQ's picks on this slate, 5 have a price on record above fair value. Each price is the one AiQ valued the pick at when it last priced the game.

Best value

• Milwaukee Bucks at Philadelphia 76ers: Milwaukee Bucks on the moneyline (+460 at Caesars, +9.9% value).
• Miami Heat at Charlotte Hornets: Over 228.5 points (-105 at FanDuel, +1.9% value).
• Washington Wizards at Chicago Bulls: Chicago Bulls on the moneyline (-120 at Fanatics, +1.3% value).
• San Antonio Spurs at Dallas Mavericks: San Antonio Spurs on the moneyline (-750 at Fanatics, +0.8% value).
• Brooklyn Nets at Cleveland Cavaliers: Under 228.5 points (-105 at DraftKings, +0.6% value).

Every game

Miami Heat at Charlotte Hornets

5:00 PM CT at Spectrum Center.

The Miami Heat have lost three straight, a run that goes back to last season, and both of their games this season. The Charlotte Hornets have won 1 of their 2 games this season. When these teams last met, on April 14, 2026, the Charlotte Hornets won 127-126 at home.

• Moneyline: AiQ gives Miami Heat a 59% confidence rating to beat Charlotte Hornets, its own model's number rather than a market price. Calibrated against the market and graded results, that is a 59.8% chance; the betting market, with the margin removed, has 59.9%. The best price, -154 at FanDuel, is priced below the fair price of -149 (−1.3% value).
• Total: AiQ gives the over 228.5 points a 62% confidence rating, its own model's number rather than a market price. Calibrated against the market and graded results, that is a 52.2% chance; the betting market, with the margin removed, has 49.4%. The best price, -105 at FanDuel, is +1.9% value against the fair price of -109.
• Spread: AiQ gives Charlotte Hornets +4.5 a 60% confidence rating to cover, its own model's number rather than a market price. Calibrated against the market and graded results, that is a 48.6% chance; the betting market, with the margin removed, has 50.6%. The best price, -110 at BetMGM, is priced below the fair price of +106 (−7.2% value).

Trends in play.

Everything points over on the total. Of the last 5 meetings between the Charlotte Hornets and the Miami Heat, 4 went over the total. The Miami Heat went over the total in 7 of their last 10 games.

Recent results against the spread back the Miami Heat. The Miami Heat covered the spread in 4 of the last 5 meetings with the Charlotte Hornets.

Brooklyn Nets at Cleveland Cavaliers

6:30 PM CT at Rocket Arena.

The Cleveland Cavaliers have lost five straight, a run that goes back to last season's playoffs. The Brooklyn Nets have lost four straight, a run that goes back to last season. When these teams last met, on March 1, 2026, the Cleveland Cavaliers won 106-102 on the road.

• Moneyline: AiQ gives Cleveland Cavaliers a 62% confidence rating to beat Brooklyn Nets, its own model's number rather than a market price. Calibrated against the market and graded results, that is an 80.0% chance; the betting market, with the margin removed, has 82.0%. The best price, -480 at Caesars, is priced below the fair price of -401 (−3.3% value).
• Total: AiQ gives the under 228.5 points a 57% confidence rating, its own model's number rather than a market price. Calibrated against the market and graded results, that is a 51.5% chance; the betting market, with the margin removed, has 50.0%. The best price, -105 at DraftKings, is +0.6% value against the fair price of -106.
• Spread: AiQ gives Cleveland Cavaliers -11.5 a 59% confidence rating to cover, its own model's number rather than a market price. Calibrated against the market and graded results, that is a 47.3% chance; the betting market, with the margin removed, has 49.3%. The best price, -105 at BetMGM, is priced below the fair price of +112 (−7.7% value).

Trends in play.

Recent results against the spread back the Brooklyn Nets, the underdog here. The Cleveland Cavaliers failed to cover the spread in 5 straight games.

Recent totals lean over. The Cleveland Cavaliers went over the total in 7 of their last 10 games.

Milwaukee Bucks at Philadelphia 76ers

6:30 PM CT at Xfinity Mobile Arena.

The Milwaukee Bucks have lost three straight, a run that goes back to last season, and both of their games this season. The Philadelphia 76ers have won both of their games this season. When these teams last met, on April 12, 2026, the Philadelphia 76ers won 126-106 at home.

• Moneyline: AiQ gives Milwaukee Bucks a 62% confidence rating to beat Philadelphia 76ers, its own model's number rather than a market price. Calibrated against the market and graded results, that is a 19.6% chance; the betting market, with the margin removed, has 15.1%. The best price, +460 at Caesars, is +9.9% value against the fair price of +409.
• Total: AiQ gives the under 234.5 points a 58% confidence rating, its own model's number rather than a market price. Calibrated against the market and graded results, that is a 51.8% chance; the betting market, with the margin removed, has 50.0%. The best price, -108 at FanDuel, is priced near the fair price of -107 (−0.3% value).
• Spread: AiQ gives Milwaukee Bucks +12.5 a 57% confidence rating to cover, its own model's number rather than a market price. Calibrated against the market and graded results, that is a 48.8% chance; the betting market, with the margin removed, has 50.2%. The best price, -105 at Caesars, is priced below the fair price of +105 (−4.7% value).

Trends in play.

Everything points over on the total. The last 5 games involving the Milwaukee Bucks went over the total. Of the last 4 meetings between the Philadelphia 76ers and the Milwaukee Bucks, 3 went over the total.

Recent results against the spread back the Philadelphia 76ers. The Philadelphia 76ers covered the spread in each of the last 4 meetings with the Milwaukee Bucks.

Washington Wizards at Chicago Bulls

7:00 PM CT at United Center.

Both teams have won 1 of their 2 games this season. When these teams last met, on April 9, 2026, the Chicago Bulls won 119-108 on the road.

• Moneyline: AiQ gives Chicago Bulls a 62% confidence rating to beat Washington Wizards, its own model's number rather than a market price. Calibrated against the market and graded results, that is a 55.3% chance; the betting market, with the margin removed, has 54.5%. The best price, -120 at Fanatics, is +1.3% value against the fair price of -124.
• Total: AiQ gives the under 244.5 points a 57% confidence rating, its own model's number rather than a market price. Calibrated against the market and graded results, that is a 51.5% chance; the betting market, with the margin removed, has 50.0%. The price on record, -110, is priced below the fair price of -106 (−1.6% value).
• Spread: AiQ gives Chicago Bulls -2.5 a 59% confidence rating to cover, its own model's number rather than a market price. Calibrated against the market and graded results, that is a 47.6% chance; the betting market, with the margin removed, has 49.5%. The price on record, -108, is priced below the fair price of +110 (−8.4% value).

Trends in play.

Everything points under on the total. Each of the last 3 meetings between the Chicago Bulls and the Washington Wizards went under the total. The Chicago Bulls went under the total in 7 of their last 10 games.

Recent results against the spread back the Chicago Bulls. The Washington Wizards failed to cover the spread in 8 of their last 10 games.

San Antonio Spurs at Dallas Mavericks

7:00 PM CT at American Airlines Center.

The San Antonio Spurs have lost four straight, a run that goes back to last season's playoffs, and both of their games this season. The Dallas Mavericks have won 1 of their 2 games this season. When these teams last met, on April 10, 2026, the San Antonio Spurs won 139-120 at home.

• Moneyline: AiQ gives San Antonio Spurs a 90% confidence rating to beat Dallas Mavericks, its own model's number rather than a market price. Calibrated against the market and graded results, that is an 88.9% chance; the betting market, with the margin removed, has 88.8%. The best price, -750 at Fanatics, is +0.8% value against the fair price of -803.
• Total: AiQ gives the under 229.5 points a 57% confidence rating, its own model's number rather than a market price. Calibrated against the market and graded results, that is a 51.5% chance; the betting market, with the margin removed, has 50.0%. The price on record, -110, is priced below the fair price of -106 (−1.6% value).
• Spread: AiQ gives San Antonio Spurs -14.5 a 59% confidence rating to cover, its own model's number rather than a market price. Calibrated against the market and graded results, that is a 48.1% chance; the betting market, with the margin removed, has 50.0%. The best price, -105 at FanDuel, is priced below the fair price of +108 (−6.1% value).

Trends in play.

Recent results against the spread back the San Antonio Spurs. The San Antonio Spurs covered the spread in each of the last 4 meetings with the Dallas Mavericks.

The total pulls both ways. The last 4 games involving the San Antonio Spurs went under the total. Meanwhile, of the last 4 meetings between the Dallas Mavericks and the San Antonio Spurs, 3 went over the total.

Houston Rockets at Atlanta Hawks

7:30 PM CT at State Farm Arena.

Both teams have won both of their games this season. When these teams last met, on March 20, 2026, the Houston Rockets won 117-95 at home.

• Moneyline: AiQ gives Houston Rockets a 62% confidence rating to beat Atlanta Hawks, its own model's number rather than a market price. Calibrated against the market and graded results, that is a 51.6% chance; the betting market, with the margin removed, has 50.5%. The price on record, -112, is priced below the fair price of -107 (−2.4% value).
• Total: AiQ gives the under 227.5 points a 57% confidence rating, its own model's number rather than a market price. No book price at this line is confirmed on the record, so no value figure is given.
• Spread: AiQ gives Houston Rockets -1.5 a 59% confidence rating to cover, its own model's number rather than a market price. No book price at this line is confirmed on the record, so no value figure is given.

New Orleans Pelicans at Denver Nuggets

8:00 PM CT at Ball Arena.

The New Orleans Pelicans have lost four straight, a run that goes back to last season, and both of their games this season. When these teams last met, on January 13, 2026, the Denver Nuggets won 122-116 on the road.

• Moneyline: AiQ gives Denver Nuggets a 62% confidence rating to beat New Orleans Pelicans, its own model's number rather than a market price. Calibrated against the market and graded results, that is a 79.6% chance; the betting market, with the margin removed, has 81.5%. The best price, -450 at Fanatics, is priced below the fair price of -391 (−2.7% value).
• Total: AiQ gives the over 239.5 points a 62% confidence rating, its own model's number rather than a market price. Calibrated against the market and graded results, that is a 52.6% chance; the betting market, with the margin removed, has 50.0%. The price on record, -110, is priced near the fair price of -111 (+0.5% value).
• Spread: AiQ gives Denver Nuggets -11.5 a 60% confidence rating to cover, its own model's number rather than a market price. Calibrated against the market and graded results, that is a 46.5% chance; the betting market, with the margin removed, has 48.8%. The price on record, -105, is priced below the fair price of +115 (−9.2% value).

Golden State Warriors at Phoenix Suns

9:00 PM CT at Mortgage Matchup Center.

The Phoenix Suns have lost five straight, a run that goes back to last season's playoffs. The Golden State Warriors have lost three straight, a run that goes back to last season, and both of their games this season. The Phoenix Suns come in with more rest: their last game was on October 21, three days before this one, while the Golden State Warriors played the day before. When these teams last met, on April 17, 2026, the Phoenix Suns won 111-96 at home.

• Moneyline: AiQ gives Phoenix Suns a 66% confidence rating to beat Golden State Warriors, its own model's number rather than a market price. Calibrated against the market and graded results, that is a 77.7% chance; the betting market, with the margin removed, has 78.9%. The best price, -375 at BetRivers, is priced below the fair price of -348 (−1.6% value).
• Total: AiQ gives the under 221.5 points a 58% confidence rating, its own model's number rather than a market price. Calibrated against the market and graded results, that is a 51.8% chance; the betting market, with the margin removed, has 50.0%. The best price, -108 at DraftKings, is priced near the fair price of -107 (−0.3% value).
• Spread: AiQ gives Phoenix Suns -9.5 a 59% confidence rating to cover, its own model's number rather than a market price. Calibrated against the market and graded results, that is a 49.5% chance; the betting market, with the margin removed, has 51.2%. The best price, -109 at BetRivers, is priced below the fair price of +102 (−5.1% value).

Trends in play.

Recent totals lean under. Of the last 5 meetings between the Phoenix Suns and the Golden State Warriors, 4 went under the total.

Recent results against the spread back the Phoenix Suns. The Golden State Warriors failed to cover the spread in 7 of their last 10 games.

These come from the closing lines of this season and last. They are context, not the reason for AiQ's picks, and the books price them in.

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