NBA Slate Analysis — Friday, October 23, 2026

Friday, October 23, 2026 · NBA

These games have been played. Picks and prices, where shown, are AiQ's from before each game started. See how they finished in the NBA recaps.

The NBA slate for Friday, October 23, 2026 has 12 games, the first at 3:00 PM CT. AiQ has a moneyline pick on all 12. Of AiQ's picks on this slate, 7 have a price on record above fair value. Each price is the one AiQ valued the pick at when it last priced the game.

Best value

• Houston Rockets at San Antonio Spurs: Houston Rockets on the moneyline (+170 at BetRivers, +7.1% value).
• Dallas Mavericks at Indiana Pacers: Over 240.5 points (-108 at DraftKings, +2.1% value).
• Houston Rockets at San Antonio Spurs: Over 224.5 points (-108 at DraftKings, +2.1% value).
• Detroit Pistons at Miami Heat: Detroit Pistons on the moneyline (-116 at FanDuel, +1.5% value).
• Atlanta Hawks at Charlotte Hornets: Charlotte Hornets on the moneyline (+122 at Caesars, +1.1% value).
• Memphis Grizzlies at Golden State Warriors: Over 236.5 points (-112, +1.0% value).
• New York Knicks at Boston Celtics: New York Knicks on the moneyline (+123 at BetRivers, +0.8% value).

Every game

Chicago Bulls at Milwaukee Bucks

3:00 PM CT at Fiserv Forum.

The Chicago Bulls have lost three straight, a run that goes back to last season. When these teams last met, on March 1, 2026, the Chicago Bulls won 120-97 at home.

• Moneyline: AiQ gives Milwaukee Bucks a 62% confidence rating to beat Chicago Bulls, its own model's number rather than a market price. Calibrated against the market and graded results, that is a 53.1% chance; the betting market, with the margin removed, has 51.9%. The price on record, -118, is priced below the fair price of -113 (−1.9% value).
• Total: AiQ gives the under 240.5 points a 57% confidence rating, its own model's number rather than a market price. No book price at this line is confirmed on the record, so no value figure is given.
• Spread: AiQ gives Milwaukee Bucks -1.5 a 59% confidence rating to cover, its own model's number rather than a market price. No book price at this line is confirmed on the record, so no value figure is given.

Trends in play.

The total pulls both ways. The last 4 games involving the Milwaukee Bucks went over the total. Meanwhile, the Chicago Bulls went under the total in 7 of their last 10 games. Of the last 4 meetings between the Milwaukee Bucks and the Chicago Bulls, 3 went under the total.

Recent results against the spread back the Milwaukee Bucks. The Milwaukee Bucks covered the spread in 3 of the last 4 meetings with the Chicago Bulls.

New York Knicks at Boston Celtics

6:00 PM CT at TD Garden.

The Boston Celtics have lost four straight, a run that goes back to last season's playoffs. When these teams last met, on April 9, 2026, the New York Knicks won 112-106 at home.

• Moneyline: AiQ gives New York Knicks a 59% confidence rating to beat Boston Celtics, its own model's number rather than a market price. Calibrated against the market and graded results, that is a 45.2% chance; the betting market, with the margin removed, has 43.3%. The best price, +123 at BetRivers, is +0.8% value against the fair price of +121.
• Total: AiQ gives the under 220.5 points a 57% confidence rating, its own model's number rather than a market price. Calibrated against the market and graded results, that is a 50.9% chance; the betting market, with the margin removed, has 48.8%. The price on record, -105, is priced below the fair price of -104 (−0.7% value).
• Spread: AiQ gives New York Knicks +2.5 a 58% confidence rating to cover, its own model's number rather than a market price. Calibrated against the market and graded results, that is a 47.3% chance; the betting market, with the margin removed, has 48.8%. The price on record, -105, is priced below the fair price of +112 (−7.7% value).

Trends in play.

Against the spread, the records lean toward the New York Knicks. The Boston Celtics failed to cover the spread in 4 straight games. The New York Knicks covered the spread in 7 of their last 10 games. The New York Knicks covered the spread in 3 of the last 4 meetings with the Boston Celtics.

Atlanta Hawks at Charlotte Hornets

6:00 PM CT at Spectrum Center.

When these teams last met, on February 11, 2026, the Charlotte Hornets won 110-107 at home.

• Moneyline: AiQ gives Charlotte Hornets a 62% confidence rating to beat Atlanta Hawks, its own model's number rather than a market price. Calibrated against the market and graded results, that is a 45.6% chance; the betting market, with the margin removed, has 43.3%. The best price, +122 at Caesars, is +1.1% value against the fair price of +120.
• Total: AiQ gives the under 226.5 points a 57% confidence rating, its own model's number rather than a market price. Calibrated against the market and graded results, that is a 51.8% chance; the betting market, with the margin removed, has 50.0%. The price on record, -110, is priced below the fair price of -107 (−1.2% value).
• Spread: AiQ gives Charlotte Hornets +2.5 a 59% confidence rating to cover, its own model's number rather than a market price. Calibrated against the market and graded results, that is a 48.5% chance; the betting market, with the margin removed, has 50.0%. The price on record, -110, is priced below the fair price of +106 (−7.5% value).

Trends in play.

Recent results against the spread back the Charlotte Hornets, the underdog here. The Charlotte Hornets covered the spread in each of the last 4 meetings with the Atlanta Hawks.

Dallas Mavericks at Indiana Pacers

6:00 PM CT at Gainbridge Fieldhouse.

When these teams last met, on February 22, 2026, the Dallas Mavericks won 134-130 on the road.

• Moneyline: AiQ gives Indiana Pacers a 62% confidence rating to beat Dallas Mavericks, its own model's number rather than a market price. Calibrated against the market and graded results, that is a 69.8% chance; the betting market, with the margin removed, has 70.9%. The best price, -250 at BetMGM, is priced below the fair price of -231 (−2.3% value).
• Total: AiQ gives the over 240.5 points a 62% confidence rating, its own model's number rather than a market price. Calibrated against the market and graded results, that is a 53.0% chance; the betting market, with the margin removed, has 50.0%. The best price, -108 at DraftKings, is +2.1% value against the fair price of -113.
• Spread: AiQ gives Indiana Pacers -7.5 a 59% confidence rating to cover, its own model's number rather than a market price. Calibrated against the market and graded results, that is a 47.1% chance; the betting market, with the margin removed, has 48.8%. The best price, -104 at FanDuel, is priced below the fair price of +112 (−7.6% value).

Trends in play.

Recent results against the spread back the Indiana Pacers. The Indiana Pacers covered the spread in 7 of their last 10 games (1 push).

Minnesota Timberwolves at Orlando Magic

6:00 PM CT at Kia Center.

The Orlando Magic have lost four straight, a run that goes back to last season's playoffs. When these teams last met, on April 8, 2026, the Orlando Magic won 132-120 at home.

• Moneyline: AiQ gives Minnesota Timberwolves a 59% confidence rating to beat Orlando Magic, its own model's number rather than a market price. Calibrated against the market and graded results, that is a 49.5% chance; the betting market, with the margin removed, has 48.1%. The price on record, -102, is priced below the fair price of +102 (−2.0% value).
• Total: AiQ gives the over 234.5 points a 62% confidence rating, its own model's number rather than a market price. No book price at this line is confirmed on the record, so no value figure is given.
• Spread: AiQ gives Minnesota Timberwolves +1.5 a 59% confidence rating to cover, its own model's number rather than a market price. No book price at this line is confirmed on the record, so no value figure is given.

Toronto Raptors at Washington Wizards

6:00 PM CT at Capital One Arena.

When these teams last met, on February 28, 2026, the Toronto Raptors won 134-125 on the road.

• Moneyline: AiQ gives Toronto Raptors a 62% confidence rating to beat Washington Wizards, its own model's number rather than a market price. Calibrated against the market and graded results, that is a 74.0% chance; the betting market, with the margin removed, has 75.7%. The best price, -320 at FanDuel, is priced below the fair price of -285 (−2.9% value).
• Total: AiQ gives the under 237.5 points a 57% confidence rating, its own model's number rather than a market price. Calibrated against the market and graded results, that is a 52.4% chance; the betting market, with the margin removed, has 50.8%. The best price, -110 at Fanatics, is priced near the fair price of -110 (−0.1% value).
• Spread: AiQ gives Toronto Raptors -8.5 a 59% confidence rating to cover, its own model's number rather than a market price. Calibrated against the market and graded results, that is a 49.8% chance; the betting market, with the margin removed, has 51.2%. The best price, -106 at FanDuel, is priced below the fair price of +101 (−3.2% value).

Trends in play.

Recent totals lean over. Each of the last 3 meetings between the Washington Wizards and the Toronto Raptors went over the total.

Recent results against the spread back the Toronto Raptors. The Washington Wizards failed to cover the spread in 8 of their last 10 games.

Detroit Pistons at Miami Heat

7:00 PM CT at Kaseya Center.

When these teams last met, on March 8, 2026, the Miami Heat won 121-110 at home.

• Moneyline: AiQ gives Detroit Pistons a 62% confidence rating to beat Miami Heat, its own model's number rather than a market price. Calibrated against the market and graded results, that is a 54.5% chance; the betting market, with the margin removed, has 53.5%. The best price, -116 at FanDuel, is +1.5% value against the fair price of -120.
• Total: AiQ gives the under 235.5 points a 57% confidence rating, its own model's number rather than a market price. Calibrated against the market and graded results, that is a 51.8% chance; the betting market, with the margin removed, has 50.0%. The price on record, -110, is priced below the fair price of -107 (−1.2% value).
• Spread: AiQ gives Miami Heat +1.5 a 59% confidence rating to cover, its own model's number rather than a market price. Calibrated against the market and graded results, that is a 48.1% chance; the betting market, with the margin removed, has 49.7%. The best price, -105 at Fanatics, is priced below the fair price of +108 (−6.2% value).

Trends in play.

Recent totals lean over. The Miami Heat went over the total in 7 of their last 10 games.

Houston Rockets at San Antonio Spurs

8:30 PM CT at Moody Center.

The San Antonio Spurs have lost three straight, a run that goes back to last season's playoffs. When these teams last met, on March 8, 2026, the San Antonio Spurs won 145-120 at home.

• Moneyline: AiQ gives Houston Rockets a 59% confidence rating to beat San Antonio Spurs, its own model's number rather than a market price. Calibrated against the market and graded results, that is a 39.7% chance; the betting market, with the margin removed, has 37.0%. The best price, +170 at BetRivers, is +7.1% value against the fair price of +152.
• Total: AiQ gives the over 224.5 points a 62% confidence rating, its own model's number rather than a market price. Calibrated against the market and graded results, that is a 53.0% chance; the betting market, with the margin removed, has 50.0%. The best price, -108 at DraftKings, is +2.1% value against the fair price of -113.
• Spread: AiQ gives Houston Rockets +4.5 a 59% confidence rating to cover, its own model's number rather than a market price. Calibrated against the market and graded results, that is a 47.1% chance; the betting market, with the margin removed, has 48.8%. The price on record, -105, is priced below the fair price of +112 (−8.0% value).

Trends in play.

Recent totals lean under. The San Antonio Spurs went under the total in 7 of their last 10 games.

Recent results against the spread back the San Antonio Spurs. The San Antonio Spurs covered the spread in 3 of the last 4 meetings with the Houston Rockets.

New Orleans Pelicans at Utah Jazz

8:30 PM CT at Delta Center.

The New Orleans Pelicans have lost three straight, a run that goes back to last season. When these teams last met, on April 7, 2026, the New Orleans Pelicans won 156-137 at home.

• Moneyline: AiQ gives New Orleans Pelicans a 59% confidence rating to beat Utah Jazz, its own model's number rather than a market price. Calibrated against the market and graded results, that is a 50.7% chance; the betting market, with the margin removed, has 49.5%. The price on record, -108, is priced below the fair price of -103 (−2.4% value).
• Total: AiQ gives the over 238.5 points a 60% confidence rating, its own model's number rather than a market price. No book price at this line is confirmed on the record, so no value figure is given.
• Spread: AiQ gives New Orleans Pelicans +1.5 a 57% confidence rating to cover, its own model's number rather than a market price. No book price at this line is confirmed on the record, so no value figure is given.

Trends in play.

Recent totals lean over. The last 4 games involving the New Orleans Pelicans went over the total.

Against the spread, the records pull in opposite directions. The New Orleans Pelicans covered the spread in each of the last 3 meetings with the Utah Jazz. Meanwhile, the New Orleans Pelicans failed to cover the spread in 7 of their last 10 games (1 push).

Memphis Grizzlies at Golden State Warriors

9:00 PM CT at Chase Center.

When these teams last met, on February 25, 2026, the Golden State Warriors won 133-112 on the road.

• Moneyline: AiQ gives Golden State Warriors a 62% confidence rating to beat Memphis Grizzlies, its own model's number rather than a market price. Calibrated against the market and graded results, that is a 59.2% chance; the betting market, with the margin removed, has 58.8%. The price on record, -155, is priced below the fair price of -145 (−2.6% value).
• Total: AiQ gives the over 236.5 points a 62% confidence rating, its own model's number rather than a market price. Calibrated against the market and graded results, that is a 53.4% chance; the betting market, with the margin removed, has 50.5%. The price on record, -112, is +1.0% value against the fair price of -114.
• Spread: AiQ gives Memphis Grizzlies +4.5 a 58% confidence rating to cover, its own model's number rather than a market price. Calibrated against the market and graded results, that is a 49.0% chance; the betting market, with the margin removed, has 50.3%. The best price, -108 at FanDuel, is priced below the fair price of +104 (−5.5% value).

Trends in play.

Everything points over on the total. Each of the last 3 meetings between the Golden State Warriors and the Memphis Grizzlies went over the total. The Memphis Grizzlies went over the total in 7 of their last 10 games (1 push).

LA Clippers at Los Angeles Lakers

9:00 PM CT at crypto.com Arena.

When these teams last met, on February 20, 2026, the Los Angeles Lakers won 125-122 at home.

• Moneyline: AiQ gives Los Angeles Lakers a 62% confidence rating to beat LA Clippers, its own model's number rather than a market price. Calibrated against the market and graded results, that is a 74.9% chance; the betting market, with the margin removed, has 76.7%. The price on record, -360, is priced below the fair price of -299 (−4.3% value).
• Total: AiQ gives the under 225.5 points a 57% confidence rating, its own model's number rather than a market price. No book price at this line is confirmed on the record, so no value figure is given.
• Spread: AiQ gives Los Angeles Lakers -8.5 a 59% confidence rating to cover, its own model's number rather than a market price. No book price at this line is confirmed on the record, so no value figure is given.

Trends in play.

Recent results against the spread back the LA Clippers, the underdog here. The LA Clippers covered the spread in 3 of the last 4 meetings with the Los Angeles Lakers.

Portland Trail Blazers at Sacramento Kings

9:00 PM CT at Golden 1 Center.

When these teams last met, on April 12, 2026, the Portland Trail Blazers won 122-110 at home.

• Moneyline: AiQ gives Portland Trail Blazers a 62% confidence rating to beat Sacramento Kings, its own model's number rather than a market price. Calibrated against the market and graded results, that is a 78.7% chance; the betting market, with the margin removed, has 81.0%. The best price, -400 at FanDuel, is priced below the fair price of -370 (−1.6% value).
• Total: AiQ gives the under 231.5 points a 58% confidence rating, its own model's number rather than a market price. Calibrated against the market and graded results, that is a 51.1% chance; the betting market, with the margin removed, has 48.8%. The price on record, -105, is priced near the fair price of -105 (−0.2% value).
• Spread: AiQ gives Portland Trail Blazers -9.5 a 59% confidence rating to cover, its own model's number rather than a market price. Calibrated against the market and graded results, that is a 48.5% chance; the betting market, with the margin removed, has 50.0%. The price on record, -110, is priced below the fair price of +106 (−7.5% value).

Trends in play.

Recent results against the spread back the Sacramento Kings, the underdog here. The Sacramento Kings covered the spread in 7 of their last 10 games.

Recent totals lean under. The Portland Trail Blazers went under the total in 7 of their last 10 games.

These come from the closing lines of this season and last. They are context, not the reason for AiQ's picks, and the books price them in.

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