MLS Slate Analysis — Saturday, October 31, 2026

Saturday, October 31, 2026 · MLS

These matches have been played. Picks and prices, where shown, are AiQ's from before each match started. See how they finished in the MLS recaps.

The MLS slate for Saturday, October 31, 2026 has 9 matchs, the first at 12:00 PM CT. AiQ has a moneyline pick on all 9. Of AiQ's picks on this slate, 3 have a price on record above fair value. Each price is the one AiQ valued the pick at when it last priced the game.

Best value

• San Diego FC vs St. Louis CITY SC: St. Louis CITY SC on the moneyline (-115 at BetRivers, +1.0% value).
• FC Dallas vs Sporting Kansas City: FC Dallas on the moneyline (-107 at Fanatics, +0.8% value).
• Real Salt Lake vs San Jose Earthquakes: Real Salt Lake on the moneyline (+175 at BetMGM, +0.7% value).

Every match

Orlando City SC vs Charlotte FC

12:00 PM CT at Bank of America Stadium.

Orlando City SC have won 12, drawn 7 and lost 13 of their 32 matches this season, winning two of the last five. Charlotte FC have won 14, drawn 8 and lost 10 of their 32 matches this season, winning two of the last five. When these teams last met, on April 22, 2026, Orlando City SC won 4-1 at home. This is their second meeting this season.

• Moneyline: AiQ gives Charlotte FC a 56% confidence rating to beat Orlando City SC, its own model's number rather than a market price. Calibrated against the market and graded results, that is a 53.2% chance; the betting market, with the margin removed, has 53.1%. The best price, -115 at Fanatics, is priced below the fair price of -114 (−0.6% value).
• Total goals: AiQ gives the under 3.5 goals a 55% confidence rating, its own model's number rather than a market price. Calibrated against the market and graded results, that is a 43.7% chance; the betting market, with the margin removed, has 41.8%. The best price, +120 at BetRivers, is priced below the fair price of +129 (−3.8% value).

Trends in play.

Recent totals lean over. Orlando City SC went over the total in 11 of 13 road matches this season.

Philadelphia Union vs FC Cincinnati

1:00 PM CT at TQL Stadium.

Philadelphia Union have won 13, drawn 8 and lost 11 of their 32 matches this season, winning two of the last five. FC Cincinnati have won 11, drawn 10 and lost 11 of their 32 matches this season, winning two of the last five. When these teams last met, on September 9, 2026, Philadelphia Union won 5-0 at home. This is their second meeting this season.

• Moneyline: AiQ gives Philadelphia Union a 58% confidence rating to beat FC Cincinnati, its own model's number rather than a market price. Calibrated against the market and graded results, that is a 36.2% chance; the betting market, with the margin removed, has 35.1%. The best price, +175 at FanDuel, is priced below the fair price of +177 (−0.6% value).
• Total goals: AiQ gives the over 3.5 goals a 56% confidence rating, its own model's number rather than a market price. Calibrated against the market and graded results, that is a 46.3% chance; the betting market, with the margin removed, has 44.6%. The best price, +110 at BetRivers, is priced below the fair price of +116 (−2.8% value).

Trends in play.

Recent totals lean over. Philadelphia Union went over the total in 11 of 14 road matches this season.

D.C. United vs Columbus Crew

1:00 PM CT at ScottsMiracle-Gro Field.

Two teams heading in opposite directions meet here. D.C. United have won 7, drawn 12 and lost 13 of their 32 matches this season, losing the last four. Columbus Crew have won 12, drawn 5 and lost 15 of their 32 matches this season, winning the last four. When these teams last met, on September 9, 2026, D.C. United won 2-1 at home. This is their second meeting this season.

• Moneyline: AiQ gives Columbus Crew a 58% confidence rating to beat D.C. United, its own model's number rather than a market price. Calibrated against the market and graded results, that is a 66.8% chance; the betting market, with the margin removed, has 67.2%. The best price, -225 at BetMGM, is priced below the fair price of -201 (−3.5% value).
• Total goals: AiQ gives the under 3.5 goals a 54% confidence rating, its own model's number rather than a market price. Calibrated against the market and graded results, that is a 55.6% chance; the betting market, with the margin removed, has 55.9%. The best price, -136 at BetRivers, is priced below the fair price of -125 (−3.5% value).

Trends in play.

Recent totals lean over. Columbus Crew went over the total in 7 of their last 10 matches.

CF Montréal vs New York City FC

1:00 PM CT at Citi Field.

CF Montréal have won 6, drawn 7 and lost 19 of their 32 matches this season, without a win in the last five. New York City FC have won 9, drawn 11 and lost 12 of their 32 matches this season, winning one of the last five. When these teams last met, on April 25, 2026, CF Montréal won 1-0 at home. This is their second meeting this season.

• Moneyline: AiQ gives New York City FC a 58% confidence rating to beat CF Montréal, its own model's number rather than a market price. Calibrated against the market and graded results, that is a 67.2% chance; the betting market, with the margin removed, has 67.6%. The price on record, -235, is priced below the fair price of -204 (−4.3% value).
• Total goals: AiQ gives the under 3.5 goals a 54% confidence rating, its own model's number rather than a market price. Calibrated against the market and graded results, that is a 59.4% chance; the betting market, with the margin removed, has 60.3%. The best price, -157 at BetRivers, is priced below the fair price of -146 (−2.9% value).

Trends in play.

Recent totals lean under. New York City FC went under the total in 7 of their last 10 matches.

San Diego FC vs St. Louis CITY SC

2:00 PM CT at Energizer Park.

St. Louis CITY SC have won 14, drawn 9 and lost 9 of their 32 matches this season, losing the last three. San Diego FC have won 8, drawn 11 and lost 13 of their 32 matches this season, without a win in the last five. When these teams last met, on March 1, 2026, San Diego FC won 2-0 at home. This is their second meeting this season.

• Moneyline: AiQ gives St. Louis CITY SC a 58% confidence rating to beat San Diego FC, its own model's number rather than a market price. Calibrated against the market and graded results, that is a 54.0% chance; the betting market, with the margin removed, has 53.8%. The best price, -115 at BetRivers, is +1.0% value against the fair price of -117.
• Total goals: AiQ gives the over 3.5 goals a 54% confidence rating, its own model's number rather than a market price. Calibrated against the market and graded results, that is a 48.8% chance; the betting market, with the margin removed, has 47.8%. The best price, -105 at BetRivers, is priced below the fair price of +105 (−4.8% value).

Trends in play.

The total pulls both ways. San Diego FC went under the total in 8 of 11 road matches this season. Meanwhile, St. Louis CITY SC went over the total in 7 of their last 10 matches.

FC Dallas vs Sporting Kansas City

2:00 PM CT at Sporting Park.

Sporting Kansas City have won 6, drawn 4 and lost 22 of their 32 matches this season, losing the last four. FC Dallas have won 15, drawn 9 and lost 8 of their 32 matches this season, winning two of the last five. When these teams last met, on September 5, 2026, FC Dallas won 4-3 at home. This is their second meeting this season.

• Moneyline: AiQ gives FC Dallas a 58% confidence rating to beat Sporting Kansas City, its own model's number rather than a market price. Calibrated against the market and graded results, that is a 52.1% chance; the betting market, with the margin removed, has 51.8%. The best price, -107 at Fanatics, is +0.8% value against the fair price of -109.
• Total goals: AiQ gives the under 3.5 goals a 54% confidence rating, its own model's number rather than a market price. Calibrated against the market and graded results, that is a 56.8% chance; the betting market, with the margin removed, has 57.3%. The best price, -150 at BetRivers, is priced below the fair price of -132 (−5.3% value).

Austin FC vs LA Galaxy

4:00 PM CT at Dignity Health Sports Park.

Austin FC have won 8, drawn 10 and lost 14 of their 32 matches this season, winning one of the last five. LA Galaxy have won 10, drawn 11 and lost 11 of their 32 matches this season, winning two of the last five. LA Galaxy come in with more rest: their last match was on October 25, six days before this one, while Austin FC played three days before. When these teams last met, on April 11, 2026, LA Galaxy won 2-1 on the road. This is their second meeting this season.

• Moneyline: AiQ gives LA Galaxy a 57% confidence rating to beat Austin FC, its own model's number rather than a market price. Calibrated against the market and graded results, that is a 65.4% chance; the betting market, with the margin removed, has 65.8%. The best price, -209 at Caesars, is priced below the fair price of -189 (−3.3% value).
• Total goals: AiQ gives the under 3.5 goals a 58% confidence rating, its own model's number rather than a market price. Calibrated against the market and graded results, that is a 53.2% chance; the betting market, with the margin removed, has 52.3%. The best price, -114 at BetRivers, is priced near the fair price of -114 (−0.2% value).

Trends in play.

The total pulls both ways. LA Galaxy went under the total in 10 of 13 home matches this season. Meanwhile, Austin FC went over the total in 10 of 14 road matches this season.

Real Salt Lake vs San Jose Earthquakes

4:00 PM CT at PayPal Park.

Real Salt Lake have won 12, drawn 6 and lost 14 of their 32 matches this season, winning the last three. San Jose Earthquakes have won 13, drawn 10 and lost 9 of their 32 matches this season, without a win in the last five. When these teams last met, on October 14, 2026, they drew 1-1. This is their second meeting this season.

• Moneyline: AiQ gives Real Salt Lake a 58% confidence rating to beat San Jose Earthquakes, its own model's number rather than a market price. Calibrated against the market and graded results, that is a 36.6% chance; the betting market, with the margin removed, has 35.5%. The best price, +175 at BetMGM, is +0.7% value against the fair price of +173.
• Total goals: AiQ gives the under 3.5 goals a 56% confidence rating, its own model's number rather than a market price. Calibrated against the market and graded results, that is a 56.5% chance; the betting market, with the margin removed, has 56.6%. The best price, -134 at BetRivers, is priced below the fair price of -130 (−1.3% value).

Trends in play.

Recent totals lean under. Real Salt Lake went under the total in 7 of their last 10 matches.

Chicago Fire FC vs Colorado Rapids

8:30 PM CT at Dick's Sporting Goods Park.

Chicago Fire FC have won 15, drawn 7 and lost 10 of their 32 matches this season, winning two of the last five. Colorado Rapids have won 12, drawn 7 and lost 13 of their 32 matches this season, winning one of the last five.

• Moneyline: AiQ gives Colorado Rapids a 56% confidence rating to beat Chicago Fire FC, its own model's number rather than a market price. Calibrated against the market and graded results, that is a 42.3% chance; the betting market, with the margin removed, has 41.7%. The best price, +130 at BetRivers, is priced below the fair price of +136 (−2.6% value).
• Total goals: AiQ gives the over 2.5 goals a 54% confidence rating, its own model's number rather than a market price. Calibrated against the market and graded results, that is a 60.3% chance; the betting market, with the margin removed, has 61.4%. The best price, -167 at BetRivers, is priced below the fair price of -152 (−3.6% value).

Trends in play.

Everything points under on the total. Colorado Rapids went under the total in 7 of their last 10 matches. Chicago Fire FC went under the total in 7 of their last 10 matches.

These come from the closing lines of this season and last. They are context, not the reason for AiQ's picks, and the books price them in.

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