MLS Slate Analysis — Wednesday, October 28, 2026

Wednesday, October 28, 2026 · MLS

These matches have been played. Picks and prices, where shown, are AiQ's from before each match started. See how they finished in the MLS recaps.

The MLS slate for Wednesday, October 28, 2026 has 14 matchs, the first at 6:30 PM CT. AiQ has a moneyline pick on all 14. Of AiQ's picks on this slate, 2 have a price on record above fair value. Each price is the one AiQ valued the pick at when it last priced the game.

Best value

• Real Salt Lake vs Austin FC: Real Salt Lake on the moneyline (+125 at BetRivers, +2.2% value).
• Houston Dynamo FC vs Seattle Sounders FC: Seattle Sounders FC on the moneyline (-130 at BetRivers, +1.3% value).

Every match

Atlanta United FC vs New York City FC

6:30 PM CT at Citi Field.

Atlanta United FC have won 8, drawn 6 and lost 17 of their 31 matches this season, winning one of the last five. New York City FC have won 8, drawn 11 and lost 12 of their 31 matches this season, without a win in the last five. When these teams last met, on September 26, 2026, they drew 2-2. This is their second meeting this season.

• Moneyline: AiQ gives New York City FC a 56% confidence rating to beat Atlanta United FC, its own model's number rather than a market price. Calibrated against the market and graded results, that is a 55.7% chance; the betting market, with the margin removed, has 55.7%. The best price, -130 at Fanatics, is priced below the fair price of -126 (−1.5% value).
• Total goals: AiQ gives the under 3.5 goals a 58% confidence rating, its own model's number rather than a market price. Calibrated against the market and graded results, that is a 60.6% chance; the betting market, with the margin removed, has 61.5%. The price on record, -180, is priced below the fair price of -154 (−5.7% value).

Trends in play.

Recent totals lean under. New York City FC went under the total in 7 of their last 10 matches.

D.C. United vs Toronto FC

6:30 PM CT at BMO Field.

D.C. United have won 7, drawn 12 and lost 12 of their 31 matches this season, losing the last three. Toronto FC have won 8, drawn 12 and lost 11 of their 31 matches this season, winning two of the last five. When these teams last met, on July 25, 2026, D.C. United won 2-1 at home. This is their second meeting this season.

• Moneyline: AiQ gives Toronto FC a 56% confidence rating to beat D.C. United, its own model's number rather than a market price. Calibrated against the market and graded results, that is a 51.0% chance; the betting market, with the margin removed, has 50.8%. The best price, -108 at BetRivers, is priced below the fair price of -104 (−1.9% value).
• Total goals: AiQ gives the under 3.5 goals a 55% confidence rating, its own model's number rather than a market price. Calibrated against the market and graded results, that is a 58.1% chance; the betting market, with the margin removed, has 59.1%. The best price, -150 at BetRivers, is priced below the fair price of -139 (−3.2% value).

Trends in play.

Recent totals lean over. Toronto FC went over the total in 10 of 14 home matches this season.

CF Montréal vs Charlotte FC

6:30 PM CT at Bank of America Stadium.

CF Montréal have won 6, drawn 7 and lost 18 of their 31 matches this season, winning one of the last five. Charlotte FC have won 13, drawn 8 and lost 10 of their 31 matches this season, winning one of the last five. When these teams last met, on September 9, 2026, Charlotte FC won 2-1 on the road. This is their second meeting this season.

• Moneyline: AiQ gives Charlotte FC a 58% confidence rating to beat CF Montréal, its own model's number rather than a market price. Calibrated against the market and graded results, that is a 58.3% chance; the betting market, with the margin removed, has 58.3%. The best price, -150 at Fanatics, is priced below the fair price of -140 (−2.9% value).
• Total goals: AiQ gives the under 3.5 goals a 58% confidence rating, its own model's number rather than a market price. Calibrated against the market and graded results, that is a 55.6% chance; the betting market, with the margin removed, has 54.8%. The best price, -132 at BetRivers, is priced below the fair price of -125 (−2.2% value).

FC Cincinnati vs Inter Miami CF

6:30 PM CT at Nu Stadium.

FC Cincinnati have won 11, drawn 9 and lost 11 of their 31 matches this season, winning three of the last five. Inter Miami CF have won 15, drawn 10 and lost 6 of their 31 matches this season, winning three of the last five. When these teams last met, on May 13, 2026, Inter Miami CF won 5-3 on the road. This is their second meeting this season.

• Moneyline: AiQ gives Inter Miami CF a 58% confidence rating to beat FC Cincinnati, its own model's number rather than a market price. Calibrated against the market and graded results, that is a 62.3% chance; the betting market, with the margin removed, has 62.5%. The price on record, -185, is priced below the fair price of -165 (−4.0% value).
• Total goals: AiQ gives the under 4.5 goals a 53% confidence rating, its own model's number rather than a market price. Calibrated against the market and graded results, that is a 59.5% chance; the betting market, with the margin removed, has 59.5%. The best price, -157 at BetRivers, is priced below the fair price of -147 (−2.5% value).

Red Bull New York vs New England Revolution

6:30 PM CT at Gillette Stadium.

New England Revolution have won 17, drawn 4 and lost 10 of their 31 matches this season, winning the last three. Red Bull New York have won 11, drawn 6 and lost 14 of their 31 matches this season, winning two of the last five. When these teams last met, on February 28, 2026, Red Bull New York won 1-0 at home. This is their second meeting this season.

• Moneyline: AiQ gives New England Revolution a 58% confidence rating to beat Red Bull New York, its own model's number rather than a market price. Calibrated against the market and graded results, that is a 46.5% chance; the betting market, with the margin removed, has 46.1%. The best price, +110 at BetMGM, is priced below the fair price of +115 (−2.3% value).
• Total goals: AiQ gives the under 3.5 goals a 58% confidence rating, its own model's number rather than a market price. Calibrated against the market and graded results, that is a 54.3% chance; the betting market, with the margin removed, has 53.0%. The best price, -121 at BetRivers, is priced below the fair price of -119 (−0.9% value).

Trends in play.

Recent totals lean under. Red Bull New York went under the total in 8 of their last 10 matches.

Real Salt Lake vs Austin FC

7:30 PM CT at Q2 Stadium.

Real Salt Lake have won 11, drawn 6 and lost 14 of their 31 matches this season, winning three of the last five. Austin FC have won 8, drawn 10 and lost 13 of their 31 matches this season, winning one of the last five. When these teams last met, on March 14, 2026, Real Salt Lake won 2-1 at home. This is their second meeting this season.

• Moneyline: AiQ gives Real Salt Lake a 56% confidence rating to beat Austin FC, its own model's number rather than a market price. Calibrated against the market and graded results, that is a 45.4% chance; the betting market, with the margin removed, has 45.0%. The best price, +125 at BetRivers, is +2.2% value against the fair price of +120.
• Total goals: AiQ gives the under 2.5 goals a 55% confidence rating, its own model's number rather than a market price. Calibrated against the market and graded results, that is a 43.2% chance; the betting market, with the margin removed, has 39.3%. The price on record, +125, is priced below the fair price of +131 (−2.8% value).

Trends in play.

Everything points under on the total. Austin FC went under the total in 7 of their last 10 matches. Real Salt Lake went under the total in 7 of their last 10 matches.

Orlando City SC vs Chicago Fire FC

7:30 PM CT at Soldier Field.

Orlando City SC have won 12, drawn 6 and lost 13 of their 31 matches this season, winning two of the last five. Chicago Fire FC have won 15, drawn 6 and lost 10 of their 31 matches this season, winning three of the last five. When these teams last met, on August 19, 2026, Chicago Fire FC won 2-1 on the road. This is their second meeting this season.

• Moneyline: AiQ gives a draw between Orlando City SC and Chicago Fire FC a 54% confidence rating, its own model's number rather than a market price. Calibrated against the market and graded results, that is a 17.5% chance; the betting market, with the margin removed, has 16.1%. The best price, +450 at FanDuel, is priced below the fair price of +472 (−3.8% value).
• Total goals: AiQ gives the over 3.5 goals a 58% confidence rating, its own model's number rather than a market price. No book price at this line is confirmed on the record, so no value figure is given.

Trends in play.

The total pulls both ways. Orlando City SC went over the total in 11 of 13 road matches this season. Meanwhile, Chicago Fire FC went under the total in 7 of their last 10 matches.

Columbus Crew vs FC Dallas

7:30 PM CT at Toyota Stadium.

Columbus Crew have won 11, drawn 5 and lost 15 of their 31 matches this season, winning the last three. FC Dallas have won 15, drawn 9 and lost 7 of their 31 matches this season, winning three of the last five.

• Moneyline: AiQ gives FC Dallas a 57% confidence rating to beat Columbus Crew, its own model's number rather than a market price. Calibrated against the market and graded results, that is a 44.2% chance; the betting market, with the margin removed, has 43.8%. The best price, +120 at FanDuel, is priced below the fair price of +126 (−2.7% value).
• Total goals: AiQ gives the over 3.5 goals a 56% confidence rating, its own model's number rather than a market price. Calibrated against the market and graded results, that is a 47.5% chance; the betting market, with the margin removed, has 44.6%. The best price, +110 at BetRivers, is priced near the fair price of +111 (−0.3% value).

Trends in play.

Recent totals lean over. Columbus Crew went over the total in 11 of 13 road matches this season.

Sporting Kansas City vs Minnesota United FC

7:30 PM CT at Allianz Field.

Sporting Kansas City have won 6, drawn 4 and lost 21 of their 31 matches this season, losing the last three. Minnesota United FC have won 8, drawn 11 and lost 12 of their 31 matches this season, winning one of the last five. When these teams last met, on July 22, 2026, Sporting Kansas City won 2-1 at home. This is their second meeting this season.

• Moneyline: AiQ gives Minnesota United FC a 57% confidence rating to beat Sporting Kansas City, its own model's number rather than a market price. Calibrated against the market and graded results, that is a 68.6% chance; the betting market, with the margin removed, has 69.1%. The best price, -235 at BetMGM, is priced below the fair price of -219 (−2.2% value).
• Total goals: AiQ gives the over 3.5 goals a 58% confidence rating, its own model's number rather than a market price. Calibrated against the market and graded results, that is a 54.1% chance; the betting market, with the margin removed, has 52.8%. The best price, -118 at BetRivers, is priced near the fair price of -118 (−0.1% value).

Philadelphia Union vs Nashville SC

7:30 PM CT at GEODIS Park.

Philadelphia Union have won 13, drawn 7 and lost 11 of their 31 matches this season, winning three of the last five. Nashville SC have won 21, drawn 7 and lost 3 of their 31 matches this season, winning four of the last five. When these teams last met, on May 2, 2026, they drew 0-0. This is their second meeting this season.

• Moneyline: AiQ gives Nashville SC a 58% confidence rating to beat Philadelphia Union, its own model's number rather than a market price. Calibrated against the market and graded results, that is a 48.9% chance; the betting market, with the margin removed, has 48.6%. The price on record, -105, is priced below the fair price of +104 (−4.5% value).
• Total goals: AiQ gives the over 3.5 goals a 58% confidence rating, its own model's number rather than a market price. No book price at this line is confirmed on the record, so no value figure is given.

Trends in play.

Everything points over on the total. Philadelphia Union went over the total in 11 of 14 road matches this season. Nashville SC went over the total in 10 of 13 home matches this season.

Portland Timbers vs St. Louis CITY SC

7:30 PM CT at Energizer Park.

Portland Timbers have won 10, drawn 7 and lost 14 of their 31 matches this season, winning one of the last five. St. Louis CITY SC have won 14, drawn 9 and lost 8 of their 31 matches this season, winning two of the last five. When these teams last met, on September 9, 2026, they drew 2-2. This is their second meeting this season.

• Moneyline: AiQ gives St. Louis CITY SC a 58% confidence rating to beat Portland Timbers, its own model's number rather than a market price. Calibrated against the market and graded results, that is a 50.0% chance; the betting market, with the margin removed, has 49.7%. The best price, -105 at BetMGM, is priced below the fair price of -100 (−2.4% value).
• Total goals: AiQ gives the over 3.5 goals a 58% confidence rating, its own model's number rather than a market price. Calibrated against the market and graded results, that is a 46.9% chance; the betting market, with the margin removed, has 43.1%. The best price, +112 at BetRivers, is priced below the fair price of +113 (−0.6% value).

Trends in play.

The total pulls both ways. St. Louis CITY SC went over the total in 7 of their last 10 matches. Meanwhile, Portland Timbers went under the total in 7 of their last 10 matches.

Houston Dynamo FC vs Seattle Sounders FC

9:30 PM CT at Lumen Field.

Houston Dynamo FC have won 13, drawn 9 and lost 9 of their 31 matches this season, without a win in the last five. Seattle Sounders FC have won 11, drawn 10 and lost 10 of their 31 matches this season, winning two of the last five. When these teams last met, on April 4, 2026, Seattle Sounders FC won 1-0 on the road. This is their second meeting this season.

Matchups to watch.

• An uphill climb in scoring. Houston Dynamo FC averaged 1.32 goals per match this season, tied for the 6th fewest in Major League Soccer, and Seattle Sounders FC conceded 1.26 goals per match, tied for the 4th fewest.
• An uphill climb in scoring. Seattle Sounders FC averaged 1.32 goals per match this season, tied for the 6th fewest in Major League Soccer, and Houston Dynamo FC conceded 1.26 goals per match, tied for the 4th fewest.

• Moneyline: AiQ gives Seattle Sounders FC a 56% confidence rating to beat Houston Dynamo FC, its own model's number rather than a market price. Calibrated against the market and graded results, that is a 57.2% chance; the betting market, with the margin removed, has 57.3%. The best price, -130 at BetRivers, is +1.3% value against the fair price of -134.
• Total goals: AiQ gives the over 2.5 goals a 54% confidence rating, its own model's number rather than a market price. Calibrated against the market and graded results, that is a 57.6% chance; the betting market, with the margin removed, has 58.7%. The best price, -157 at BetRivers, is priced below the fair price of -136 (−5.8% value).

Trends in play.

Recent totals lean under. Houston Dynamo FC went under the total in 7 of their last 10 matches.

Colorado Rapids vs San Jose Earthquakes

9:30 PM CT at PayPal Park.

Colorado Rapids have won 12, drawn 6 and lost 13 of their 31 matches this season, winning one of the last five. San Jose Earthquakes have won 13, drawn 9 and lost 9 of their 31 matches this season, winning one of the last five. When these teams last met, on October 10, 2026, they drew 1-1. This is their second meeting this season.

• Moneyline: AiQ gives San Jose Earthquakes a 56% confidence rating to beat Colorado Rapids, its own model's number rather than a market price. Calibrated against the market and graded results, that is a 40.5% chance; the betting market, with the margin removed, has 39.9%. The best price, +140 at Fanatics, is priced below the fair price of +147 (−2.9% value).
• Total goals: AiQ gives the under 2.5 goals a 53% confidence rating, its own model's number rather than a market price. Calibrated against the market and graded results, that is a 42.2% chance; the betting market, with the margin removed, has 42.2%. The best price, +118 at BetRivers, is priced below the fair price of +137 (−8.1% value).

Trends in play.

Recent totals lean under. Colorado Rapids went under the total in 7 of their last 10 matches.

San Diego FC vs Vancouver Whitecaps

9:30 PM CT at BC Place.

San Diego FC have won 8, drawn 11 and lost 12 of their 31 matches this season, without a win in the last five. Vancouver Whitecaps have won 16, drawn 7 and lost 8 of their 31 matches this season, winning one of the last five. When these teams last met, on May 23, 2026, Vancouver Whitecaps won 4-2 on the road. This is their second meeting this season.

Matchups to watch.

• Mismatch in scoring. Vancouver Whitecaps averaged 2.03 goals per match this season, the 4th most in Major League Soccer, and San Diego FC conceded 1.87 goals per match, the 7th most.

• Moneyline: AiQ gives Vancouver Whitecaps a 58% confidence rating to beat San Diego FC, its own model's number rather than a market price. Calibrated against the market and graded results, that is a 64.5% chance; the betting market, with the margin removed, has 64.8%. The best price, -200 at BetMGM, is priced below the fair price of -182 (−3.2% value).
• Total goals: AiQ gives the under 3.5 goals a 60% confidence rating, its own model's number rather than a market price. Calibrated against the market and graded results, that is a 49.5% chance; the betting market, with the margin removed, has 45.9%. The best price, +100 at BetRivers, is priced below the fair price of +102 (−1.1% value).

Trends in play.

Everything points under on the total. Vancouver Whitecaps went under the total in 8 of their last 10 matches. San Diego FC went under the total in 8 of 11 road matches this season.

These come from the closing lines of this season and last. They are context, not the reason for AiQ's picks, and the books price them in.

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