MLS Slate Analysis — Saturday, October 24, 2026

Saturday, October 24, 2026 · MLS

These matches have been played. Picks and prices, where shown, are AiQ's from before each match started. See how they finished in the MLS recaps.

The MLS slate for Saturday, October 24, 2026 has 14 matchs, the first at 12:30 PM CT. AiQ has a moneyline pick on all 14. Of AiQ's picks on this slate, 5 have a price on record above fair value. Each price is the one AiQ valued the pick at when it last priced the game.

Best value

• Charlotte FC vs Portland Timbers: Charlotte FC on the moneyline (+245 at BetRivers, +6.3% value).
• Vancouver Whitecaps vs Colorado Rapids: Under 2.5 goals (+116 at BetRivers, +3.3% value).
• Inter Miami CF vs Red Bull New York: Under 3.5 goals (+120 at BetRivers, +3.0% value).
• Seattle Sounders FC vs San Diego FC: Seattle Sounders FC on the moneyline (+188 at BetRivers, +2.0% value).
• Chicago Fire FC vs Atlanta United FC: Draw on the moneyline (+290 at FanDuel, +1.0% value).

Every match

Nashville SC vs CF Montréal

12:30 PM CT at Stade Saputo.

Nashville SC have won 20, drawn 7 and lost 3 of their 30 matches this season, winning four of the last five. CF Montréal have won 6, drawn 7 and lost 17 of their 30 matches this season, winning one of the last five. When these teams last met, on July 22, 2026, Nashville SC won 1-0 at home. This is their second meeting this season.

• Moneyline: AiQ gives Nashville SC a 58% confidence rating to beat CF Montréal, its own model's number rather than a market price. Calibrated against the market and graded results, that is a 64.6% chance; the betting market, with the margin removed, has 64.9%. The best price, -193 at Caesars, is priced below the fair price of -182 (−2.0% value).
• Total goals: AiQ gives the under 3.5 goals a 54% confidence rating, its own model's number rather than a market price. Calibrated against the market and graded results, that is a 57.9% chance; the betting market, with the margin removed, has 59.0%. The price on record, -162, is priced below the fair price of -137 (−6.4% value).

Toronto FC vs Columbus Crew

2:30 PM CT at ScottsMiracle-Gro Field.

Toronto FC have won 8, drawn 12 and lost 10 of their 30 matches this season, winning two of the last five. Columbus Crew have won 10, drawn 5 and lost 15 of their 30 matches this season, winning four of the last five. When these teams last met, on March 21, 2026, Toronto FC won 2-1 at home. This is their second meeting this season.

• Moneyline: AiQ gives Columbus Crew a 57% confidence rating to beat Toronto FC, its own model's number rather than a market price. Calibrated against the market and graded results, that is a 58.2% chance; the betting market, with the margin removed, has 58.3%. The best price, -150 at Fanatics, is priced below the fair price of -139 (−2.9% value).
• Total goals: AiQ gives the over 3.5 goals a 54% confidence rating, its own model's number rather than a market price. Calibrated against the market and graded results, that is a 46.1% chance; the betting market, with the margin removed, has 43.9%. The best price, +110 at BetMGM, is priced below the fair price of +117 (−3.2% value).

Trends in play.

Everything points over on the total. Columbus Crew went over the total in 7 of their last 10 matches. Toronto FC went over the total in 7 of their last 10 matches.

Inter Miami CF vs Red Bull New York

4:30 PM CT at Sports Illustrated Stadium.

Inter Miami CF have won 15, drawn 10 and lost 5 of their 30 matches this season, winning the last three. Red Bull New York have won 10, drawn 6 and lost 14 of their 30 matches this season, winning two of the last five. When these teams last met, on April 11, 2026, they drew 2-2. This is their second meeting this season.

• Moneyline: AiQ gives Inter Miami CF a 58% confidence rating to beat Red Bull New York, its own model's number rather than a market price. Calibrated against the market and graded results, that is a 50.0% chance; the betting market, with the margin removed, has 49.6%. The best price, -107 at Fanatics, is priced below the fair price of +100 (−3.3% value).
• Total goals: AiQ gives the under 3.5 goals a 58% confidence rating, its own model's number rather than a market price. Calibrated against the market and graded results, that is a 46.8% chance; the betting market, with the margin removed, has 43.7%. The best price, +120 at BetRivers, is +3.0% value against the fair price of +113.

Trends in play.

Recent totals lean under. Red Bull New York went under the total in 8 of their last 10 matches.

New York City FC vs Orlando City SC

6:30 PM CT at Inter&Co Stadium.

New York City FC have won 8, drawn 10 and lost 12 of their 30 matches this season, without a win in the last five. Orlando City SC have won 12, drawn 5 and lost 13 of their 30 matches this season, winning two of the last five. When these teams last met, on March 7, 2026, New York City FC won 5-0 at home. This is their second meeting this season.

• Moneyline: AiQ gives Orlando City SC a 60% confidence rating to beat New York City FC, its own model's number rather than a market price. Calibrated against the market and graded results, that is a 43.6% chance; the betting market, with the margin removed, has 42.7%. The price on record, +120, is priced below the fair price of +130 (−4.2% value).
• Total goals: AiQ gives the under 3.5 goals a 55% confidence rating, its own model's number rather than a market price. Calibrated against the market and graded results, that is a 54.1% chance; the betting market, with the margin removed, has 53.8%. The best price, -135 at BetMGM, is priced below the fair price of -118 (−5.8% value).

Trends in play.

Recent totals lean under. New York City FC went under the total in 9 of 12 road matches this season.

Chicago Fire FC vs Atlanta United FC

6:30 PM CT at Mercedes-Benz Stadium.

Chicago Fire FC have won 14, drawn 6 and lost 10 of their 30 matches this season, winning three of the last five. Atlanta United FC have won 8, drawn 6 and lost 16 of their 30 matches this season, winning two of the last five. When these teams last met, on April 11, 2026, Chicago Fire FC won 1-0 at home. This is their second meeting this season.

• Moneyline: AiQ gives a draw between Chicago Fire FC and Atlanta United FC a 56% confidence rating, its own model's number rather than a market price. Calibrated against the market and graded results, that is a 25.9% chance; the betting market, with the margin removed, has 24.4%. The best price, +290 at FanDuel, is +1.0% value against the fair price of +286.
• Total goals: AiQ gives the under 3.5 goals a 58% confidence rating, its own model's number rather than a market price. Calibrated against the market and graded results, that is a 56.0% chance; the betting market, with the margin removed, has 55.4%. The best price, -136 at BetRivers, is priced below the fair price of -127 (−2.9% value).

Trends in play.

Recent totals lean under. Chicago Fire FC went under the total in 7 of their last 10 matches.

New England Revolution vs Philadelphia Union

6:30 PM CT at Subaru Park.

New England Revolution have won 16, drawn 4 and lost 10 of their 30 matches this season, winning three of the last five. Philadelphia Union have won 13, drawn 7 and lost 10 of their 30 matches this season, winning four of the last five. When these teams last met, on May 9, 2026, New England Revolution won 2-1 at home. This is their second meeting this season.

• Moneyline: AiQ gives Philadelphia Union a 61% confidence rating to beat New England Revolution, its own model's number rather than a market price. Calibrated against the market and graded results, that is a 64.6% chance; the betting market, with the margin removed, has 64.8%. The best price, -190 at BetMGM, is priced below the fair price of -182 (−1.4% value).
• Total goals: AiQ gives the over 3.5 goals a 58% confidence rating, its own model's number rather than a market price. Calibrated against the market and graded results, that is a 49.7% chance; the betting market, with the margin removed, has 47.3%. The best price, -105 at BetMGM, is priced below the fair price of +101 (−3.0% value).

Trends in play.

Recent totals lean over. Philadelphia Union went over the total in 7 of their last 10 matches.

FC Cincinnati vs D.C. United

6:30 PM CT at Audi Field.

FC Cincinnati have won 10, drawn 9 and lost 11 of their 30 matches this season, winning two of the last five. D.C. United have won 7, drawn 12 and lost 11 of their 30 matches this season, winning one of the last five. When these teams last met, on October 21, 2026, FC Cincinnati won 2-1 at home. This is their second meeting this season.

• Moneyline: AiQ gives a draw between FC Cincinnati and D.C. United a 56% confidence rating, its own model's number rather than a market price. Calibrated against the market and graded results, that is a 24.4% chance; the betting market, with the margin removed, has 22.8%. The best price, +310 at FanDuel, is priced near the fair price of +310 (+0.1% value).
• Total goals: AiQ gives the under 3.5 goals a 58% confidence rating, its own model's number rather than a market price. Calibrated against the market and graded results, that is a 51.0% chance; the betting market, with the margin removed, has 49.1%. The best price, -110 at BetMGM, is priced below the fair price of -104 (−2.6% value).

Minnesota United FC vs Houston Dynamo FC

7:30 PM CT at Shell Energy Stadium.

Minnesota United FC have won 8, drawn 10 and lost 12 of their 30 matches this season, winning one of the last five. Houston Dynamo FC have won 13, drawn 8 and lost 9 of their 30 matches this season, without a win in the last five. When these teams last met, on October 10, 2026, they drew 2-2. This is their second meeting this season.

• Moneyline: AiQ gives a draw between Minnesota United FC and Houston Dynamo FC a 56% confidence rating, its own model's number rather than a market price. Calibrated against the market and graded results, that is a 26.8% chance; the betting market, with the margin removed, has 25.4%. The best price, +260 at BetRivers, is priced below the fair price of +273 (−3.4% value).
• Total goals: AiQ gives the over 2.5 goals a 58% confidence rating, its own model's number rather than a market price. Calibrated against the market and graded results, that is a 59.2% chance; the betting market, with the margin removed, has 59.5%. The best price, -162 at BetRivers, is priced below the fair price of -145 (−4.3% value).

Trends in play.

The total pulls both ways. Minnesota United FC went over the total in 10 of 13 road matches this season. Meanwhile, Houston Dynamo FC went under the total in 7 of their last 10 matches.

Austin FC vs Sporting Kansas City

7:30 PM CT at Sporting Park.

Austin FC have won 7, drawn 10 and lost 13 of their 30 matches this season, losing the last three. Sporting Kansas City have won 6, drawn 4 and lost 20 of their 30 matches this season, winning one of the last five. When these teams last met, on May 16, 2026, Sporting Kansas City won 2-1 on the road. This is their second meeting this season.

• Moneyline: AiQ gives a draw between Austin FC and Sporting Kansas City a 56% confidence rating, its own model's number rather than a market price. Calibrated against the market and graded results, that is a 24.7% chance; the betting market, with the margin removed, has 23.1%. The best price, +300 at Fanatics, is priced below the fair price of +304 (−1.1% value).
• Total goals: AiQ gives the under 3.5 goals a 58% confidence rating, its own model's number rather than a market price. Calibrated against the market and graded results, that is a 56.7% chance; the betting market, with the margin removed, has 56.3%. The best price, -145 at BetMGM, is priced below the fair price of -131 (−4.2% value).

Trends in play.

Recent totals lean over. Austin FC went over the total in 10 of 14 road matches this season.

San Jose Earthquakes vs FC Dallas

7:30 PM CT at Toyota Stadium.

San Jose Earthquakes have won 13, drawn 9 and lost 8 of their 30 matches this season, winning one of the last five. FC Dallas have won 14, drawn 9 and lost 7 of their 30 matches this season, winning two of the last five. When these teams last met, on May 16, 2026, FC Dallas won 3-2 on the road. This is their second meeting this season.

• Moneyline: AiQ gives FC Dallas a 58% confidence rating to beat San Jose Earthquakes, its own model's number rather than a market price. Calibrated against the market and graded results, that is a 53.1% chance; the betting market, with the margin removed, has 52.9%. The best price, -120 at Fanatics, is priced below the fair price of -113 (−2.6% value).
• Total goals: AiQ gives the under 3.5 goals a 54% confidence rating, its own model's number rather than a market price. Calibrated against the market and graded results, that is a 55.5% chance; the betting market, with the margin removed, has 55.9%. The best price, -137 at BetRivers, is priced below the fair price of -125 (−4.1% value).

Vancouver Whitecaps vs Colorado Rapids

8:30 PM CT at Dick's Sporting Goods Park.

Vancouver Whitecaps have won 16, drawn 7 and lost 7 of their 30 matches this season, winning one of the last five. Colorado Rapids have won 11, drawn 6 and lost 13 of their 30 matches this season, without a win in the last five. When these teams last met, on April 25, 2026, Vancouver Whitecaps won 3-1 at home. This is their second meeting this season.

• Moneyline: AiQ gives Vancouver Whitecaps a 58% confidence rating to beat Colorado Rapids, its own model's number rather than a market price. Calibrated against the market and graded results, that is a 44.6% chance; the betting market, with the margin removed, has 43.9%. The best price, +120 at Fanatics, is priced below the fair price of +124 (−1.9% value).
• Total goals: AiQ gives the under 2.5 goals a 58% confidence rating, its own model's number rather than a market price. Calibrated against the market and graded results, that is a 47.8% chance; the betting market, with the margin removed, has 45.0%. The best price, +116 at BetRivers, is +3.3% value against the fair price of +109.

Trends in play.

Everything points under on the total. Vancouver Whitecaps went under the total in 8 of their last 10 matches. Colorado Rapids went under the total in 7 of their last 10 matches.

St. Louis CITY SC vs Real Salt Lake

8:30 PM CT at America First Field.

St. Louis CITY SC have won 14, drawn 9 and lost 7 of their 30 matches this season, winning three of the last five. Real Salt Lake have won 10, drawn 6 and lost 14 of their 30 matches this season, winning two of the last five. When these teams last met, on August 1, 2026, they drew 1-1. This is their second meeting this season.

• Moneyline: AiQ gives St. Louis CITY SC a 58% confidence rating to beat Real Salt Lake, its own model's number rather than a market price. Calibrated against the market and graded results, that is a 29.5% chance; the betting market, with the margin removed, has 28.1%. The best price, +230 at Fanatics, is priced below the fair price of +239 (−2.7% value).
• Total goals: AiQ gives the over 3.5 goals a 58% confidence rating, its own model's number rather than a market price. Calibrated against the market and graded results, that is a 44.5% chance; the betting market, with the margin removed, has 40.7%. The best price, +120 at BetMGM, is priced below the fair price of +125 (−2.1% value).

Trends in play.

The total pulls both ways. Real Salt Lake went under the total in 7 of their last 10 matches. Meanwhile, St. Louis CITY SC went over the total in 7 of their last 10 matches.

Seattle Sounders FC vs San Diego FC

9:30 PM CT at Snapdragon Stadium.

Seattle Sounders FC have won 11, drawn 9 and lost 10 of their 30 matches this season, winning three of the last five. San Diego FC have won 8, drawn 10 and lost 12 of their 30 matches this season, without a win in the last five. When these teams last met, on May 9, 2026, they drew 1-1. This is their second meeting this season.

Matchups to watch.

• Weakness against weakness in scoring. Seattle Sounders FC averaged 1.30 goals per match this season, the 6th fewest in Major League Soccer, and San Diego FC conceded 1.87 goals per match, tied for the 6th most.

• Moneyline: AiQ gives Seattle Sounders FC a 56% confidence rating to beat San Diego FC, its own model's number rather than a market price. Calibrated against the market and graded results, that is a 35.4% chance; the betting market, with the margin removed, has 34.4%. The best price, +188 at BetRivers, is +2.0% value against the fair price of +182.
• Total goals: AiQ gives the over 3.5 goals a 55% confidence rating, its own model's number rather than a market price. Calibrated against the market and graded results, that is a 48.1% chance; the betting market, with the margin removed, has 46.2%. The best price, +106 at BetRivers, is priced below the fair price of +108 (−0.9% value).

Trends in play.

The total pulls both ways. San Diego FC went over the total in 11 of 14 home matches this season. Meanwhile, Seattle Sounders FC went under the total in 10 of 13 road matches this season.

Charlotte FC vs Portland Timbers

9:30 PM CT at Providence Park.

Charlotte FC have won 13, drawn 8 and lost 9 of their 30 matches this season, winning two of the last five. Portland Timbers have won 9, drawn 7 and lost 14 of their 30 matches this season, without a win in the last five.

• Moneyline: AiQ gives Charlotte FC a 56% confidence rating to beat Portland Timbers, its own model's number rather than a market price. Calibrated against the market and graded results, that is a 30.8% chance; the betting market, with the margin removed, has 29.6%. The best price, +245 at BetRivers, is +6.3% value against the fair price of +224.
• Total goals: AiQ gives the under 3.5 goals a 52% confidence rating, its own model's number rather than a market price. Calibrated against the market and graded results, that is a 50.0% chance; the betting market, with the margin removed, has 50.0%. The best price, -105 at BetRivers, is priced below the fair price of +100 (−2.4% value).

Trends in play.

Recent totals lean under. Portland Timbers went under the total in 7 of their last 10 matches.

These come from the closing lines of this season and last. They are context, not the reason for AiQ's picks, and the books price them in.

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