MLB Slate Analysis — Monday, October 26, 2026
Monday, October 26, 2026 · MLB
These games have been played. Picks and prices, where shown, are AiQ's from before each game started. See how they finished in the MLB recaps.
The MLB slate for Monday, October 26, 2026 has 1 game, at 7:00 PM CT. AiQ has a moneyline pick on it. None of AiQ's picks on this slate has a price on record above fair value. Each price is the one AiQ valued the pick at when it last priced the game.
Every game
Milwaukee Brewers at Tampa Bay Rays
7:00 PM CT at Tropicana Field. Averaged over the outcomes the betting lines imply, the projected score is Milwaukee Brewers 4, Tampa Bay Rays 4. That is an average, not a pick.
The Milwaukee Brewers went 103-59 in the regular season and have won 9 of their 10 playoff games, and have won the last seven. The Tampa Bay Rays went 98-64 in the regular season and have won 7 of their 11 playoff games. When these teams last met, on October 24, 2026, the Milwaukee Brewers won 5-4 at home. This is their sixth meeting this season.
Matchups to watch.
- The probable starters are Robert Gasser (left-hander, 3.87 earned run average) for the Milwaukee Brewers and Freddy Peralta (right-hander, 4.42 earned run average) for the Tampa Bay Rays.
- Strength against strength at the plate. The Milwaukee Brewers had a .258 batting average in the regular season, tied for the highest in Major League Baseball, and the Tampa Bay Rays allowed opponents a .229 batting average, the 4th lowest.
- Strength against strength at the plate. The Tampa Bay Rays had a .258 batting average in the regular season, tied for the highest in Major League Baseball, and the Milwaukee Brewers allowed opponents a .221 batting average, the 2nd lowest.
- Moneyline: The betting market, with the margin removed, gives Tampa Bay Rays a 52.1% chance to beat Milwaukee Brewers. AiQ's moneyline pick is the side the consensus favors. The price on record, -119, is priced below the fair price of -109 (−4.1% value).
- Total: The betting market, with the margin removed, puts the over 7 runs at 51.0% and the under at 49.0%. That is near a coin flip, and AiQ's read is the market's own, so AiQ has no edge on the total. AiQ's projected total, 7.7 runs, comes from the same market prices, so it adds nothing to them.
- Run line: The betting market, with the margin removed, gives Milwaukee Brewers -1.5 a 33.8% chance to cover and Tampa Bay Rays +1.5 66.2%. AiQ's read matches the market price, so AiQ has no edge on the run line.
Trends in play.
Recent results against the run line back the Tampa Bay Rays, the underdog here. The Tampa Bay Rays covered the run line in 7 of their last 10 games.
These come from the closing lines of this season and last. They are context, not the reason for AiQ's picks, and the books price them in.