MLB Slate Analysis — Friday, September 25, 2026

Friday, September 25, 2026 · MLB

These games have been played. Picks and prices, where shown, are AiQ's from before each game started. See how they finished in the MLB recaps.

The MLB slate for Friday, September 25, 2026 has 17 games, the first at 12:05 PM CT. AiQ has a moneyline pick on all 17. Of AiQ's picks on this slate, 1 has a price on record above fair value. Each price is the one AiQ valued the pick at when it last priced the game.

Best value

• Baltimore Orioles at New York Yankees: Baltimore Orioles on the moneyline (-105, +61.9% value).

Every game

Chicago Cubs at Boston Red Sox

12:05 PM CT at Fenway Park.

• Moneyline: AiQ gives Chicago Cubs a 58% confidence rating to beat Boston Red Sox, its own model's number rather than a market price. Calibrated against the market and graded results, that is a 53.9% chance; the betting market, with the margin removed, has 53.7%. The best price, -120 at Caesars, is priced below the fair price of -117 (−1.3% value).
• Total: AiQ gives the over 6.5 runs a 57% confidence rating, its own model's number rather than a market price. Calibrated against the market and graded results, that is a 51.0% chance; the betting market, with the margin removed, has 50.3%. The best price, -109 at Caesars, is priced below the fair price of -104 (−2.2% value).
• Run line: AiQ gives Chicago Cubs -1.5 a 59% confidence rating to cover, its own model's number rather than a market price. Calibrated against the market and graded results, that is a 37.5% chance; the betting market, with the margin removed, has 39.8%. The best price, +140 at Caesars, is priced below the fair price of +166 (−9.9% value).

Baltimore Orioles at New York Yankees

3:05 PM CT at Yankee Stadium.

• Moneyline: AiQ gives New York Yankees a 60% confidence rating to beat Baltimore Orioles, its own model's number rather than a market price. Calibrated against the market and graded results, that is a 50.0% chance; the betting market, with the margin removed, has 49.5%. The price on record, -108, is priced below the fair price of +100 (−3.7% value).
• Total: AiQ gives the over 7 runs a 58% confidence rating, its own model's number rather than a market price. No book price at this line is confirmed on the record, so no value figure is given.
• Run line: AiQ gives New York Yankees +1.5 a 59% confidence rating to cover, its own model's number rather than a market price. No book price at this line is confirmed on the record, so no value figure is given.

Chicago Cubs at Boston Red Sox

4:30 PM CT at Fenway Park. Averaged over the outcomes the betting lines imply, the projected score is Chicago Cubs 3.6, Boston Red Sox 3.4. That is an average, not a pick.

• Moneyline: The betting market, with the margin removed, gives Chicago Cubs a 52.5% chance to beat Boston Red Sox. AiQ's moneyline pick is the side the consensus favors. The best price, -118 at FanDuel, is priced below the fair price of -111 (−3.0% value).
• Total: The posted total is 6.5 runs. AiQ names a total side only when one of its models beats the market price at the posted number, and none does here. AiQ's projected total, 7.0 runs, comes from the same market prices, so it adds nothing to them.
• Run line: The posted run line is Chicago Cubs -1.5 against Boston Red Sox +1.5. AiQ names a run line side only when one of its models beats the market price at the posted number, and none does here.

Pittsburgh Pirates at Detroit Tigers

5:40 PM CT at Comerica Park. Averaged over the outcomes the betting lines imply, the projected score is Pittsburgh Pirates 4.2, Detroit Tigers 4.3. That is an average, not a pick.

• Moneyline: The betting market, with the margin removed, gives Detroit Tigers a 51.2% chance to beat Pittsburgh Pirates. AiQ's moneyline pick is the side the consensus favors. The price on record, -119, is priced below the fair price of -105 (−5.7% value).
• Total: The posted total is 8 runs. AiQ names a total side only when one of its models beats the market price at the posted number, and none does here. AiQ's projected total, 8.5 runs, comes from the same market prices, so it adds nothing to them.
• Run line: The posted run line is Pittsburgh Pirates -1.5 against Detroit Tigers +1.5. AiQ names a run line side only when one of its models beats the market price at the posted number, and none does here.

Tampa Bay Rays at Philadelphia Phillies

5:40 PM CT at Citizens Bank Park. Averaged over the outcomes the betting lines imply, the projected score is Tampa Bay Rays 3.0, Philadelphia Phillies 4.1. That is an average, not a pick.

• Moneyline: The betting market, with the margin removed, gives Philadelphia Phillies a 62.1% chance to beat Tampa Bay Rays. AiQ's moneyline pick is the side the consensus favors. The best price, -173 at Caesars, is priced below the fair price of -164 (−2.0% value).
• Total: The posted total is 6.5 runs. AiQ names a total side only when one of its models beats the market price at the posted number, and none does here. AiQ's projected total, 7.1 runs, comes from the same market prices, so it adds nothing to them.
• Run line: The posted run line is Tampa Bay Rays +1.5 against Philadelphia Phillies -1.5. AiQ names a run line side only when one of its models beats the market price at the posted number, and none does here.

New York Mets at Washington Nationals

5:45 PM CT at Nationals Park. Averaged over the outcomes the betting lines imply, the projected score is New York Mets 4.5, Washington Nationals 4.5. That is an average, not a pick.

• Moneyline: The betting market, with the margin removed, gives Washington Nationals a 50.0% chance to beat New York Mets. AiQ's moneyline pick is the side the consensus favors, here by less than a point. The price on record, -111, is priced below the fair price of -100 (−4.9% value).
• Total: The posted total is 8.5 runs. AiQ names a total side only when one of its models beats the market price at the posted number, and none does here. AiQ's projected total, 9.0 runs, comes from the same market prices, so it adds nothing to them.
• Run line: The posted run line is New York Mets -1.5 against Washington Nationals +1.5. AiQ names a run line side only when one of its models beats the market price at the posted number, and none does here.

Cincinnati Reds at Toronto Blue Jays

6:07 PM CT at Rogers Centre. Averaged over the outcomes the betting lines imply, the projected score is Cincinnati Reds 3.7, Toronto Blue Jays 4.6. That is an average, not a pick.

• Moneyline: The betting market, with the margin removed, gives Toronto Blue Jays a 58.3% chance to beat Cincinnati Reds. AiQ's moneyline pick is the side the consensus favors. The best price, -148 at BetRivers, is priced below the fair price of -140 (−2.4% value).
• Total: The posted total is 7.5 runs. AiQ names a total side only when one of its models beats the market price at the posted number, and none does here. AiQ's projected total, 8.3 runs, comes from the same market prices, so it adds nothing to them.
• Run line: The posted run line is Cincinnati Reds +1.5 against Toronto Blue Jays -1.5. AiQ names a run line side only when one of its models beats the market price at the posted number, and none does here.

Atlanta Braves at Miami Marlins

6:10 PM CT at loanDepot park. Averaged over the outcomes the betting lines imply, the projected score is Atlanta Braves 4.4, Miami Marlins 4.2. That is an average, not a pick.

• Moneyline: The betting market, with the margin removed, gives Atlanta Braves a 51.7% chance to beat Miami Marlins. AiQ's moneyline pick is the side the consensus favors. The price on record, -118, is priced below the fair price of -107 (−4.5% value).
• Total: The posted total is 8 runs. AiQ names a total side only when one of its models beats the market price at the posted number, and none does here. AiQ's projected total, 8.6 runs, comes from the same market prices, so it adds nothing to them.
• Run line: The posted run line is Atlanta Braves -1.5 against Miami Marlins +1.5. AiQ names a run line side only when one of its models beats the market price at the posted number, and none does here.

Baltimore Orioles at New York Yankees

6:30 PM CT at Yankee Stadium. Averaged over the outcomes the betting lines imply, the projected score is Baltimore Orioles 6.4, New York Yankees 2.3. That is an average, not a pick.

• Moneyline: The betting market, with the margin removed, gives Baltimore Orioles an 82.9% chance to beat New York Yankees. AiQ's moneyline pick is the side the consensus favors. The price on record, -105, is +61.9% value against the fair price of -485.
• Total: The posted total is 7.5 runs. AiQ names a total side only when one of its models beats the market price at the posted number, and none does here. AiQ's projected total, 8.7 runs, comes from the same market prices, so it adds nothing to them.
• Run line: The posted run line is Baltimore Orioles -2.5 against New York Yankees +2.5. AiQ names a run line side only when one of its models beats the market price at the posted number, and none does here.

Cleveland Guardians at Kansas City Royals

6:40 PM CT at Kauffman Stadium. Averaged over the outcomes the betting lines imply, the projected score is Cleveland Guardians 4.2, Kansas City Royals 3.6. That is an average, not a pick.

• Moneyline: The betting market, with the margin removed, gives Cleveland Guardians a 56.3% chance to beat Kansas City Royals. AiQ's moneyline pick is the side the consensus favors. The price on record, -134, is priced below the fair price of -129 (−1.7% value).
• Total: The posted total is 7 runs. AiQ names a total side only when one of its models beats the market price at the posted number, and none does here. AiQ's projected total, 7.8 runs, comes from the same market prices, so it adds nothing to them.
• Run line: The posted run line is Cleveland Guardians -1.5 against Kansas City Royals +1.5. AiQ names a run line side only when one of its models beats the market price at the posted number, and none does here.

Colorado Rockies at Chicago White Sox

6:40 PM CT at Rate Field. Averaged over the outcomes the betting lines imply, the projected score is Colorado Rockies 3.4, Chicago White Sox 5.6. That is an average, not a pick.

• Moneyline: The betting market, with the margin removed, gives Chicago White Sox a 68.6% chance to beat Colorado Rockies. AiQ's moneyline pick is the side the consensus favors. The best price, -225 at BetRivers, is priced below the fair price of -218 (−0.9% value).
• Total: The posted total is 8.5 runs. AiQ names a total side only when one of its models beats the market price at the posted number, and none does here. AiQ's projected total, 9.0 runs, comes from the same market prices, so it adds nothing to them.
• Run line: The posted run line is Colorado Rockies +1.5 against Chicago White Sox -1.5. AiQ names a run line side only when one of its models beats the market price at the posted number, and none does here.

St. Louis Cardinals at Milwaukee Brewers

6:40 PM CT at American Family Field. Averaged over the outcomes the betting lines imply, the projected score is St. Louis Cardinals 3.5, Milwaukee Brewers 5.0. That is an average, not a pick.

• Moneyline: The betting market, with the margin removed, gives Milwaukee Brewers a 63.7% chance to beat St. Louis Cardinals. AiQ's moneyline pick is the side the consensus favors. The best price, -182 at Caesars, is priced below the fair price of -175 (−1.3% value).
• Total: The posted total is 7.5 runs. AiQ names a total side only when one of its models beats the market price at the posted number, and none does here. AiQ's projected total, 8.5 runs, comes from the same market prices, so it adds nothing to them.
• Run line: The posted run line is St. Louis Cardinals +1.5 against Milwaukee Brewers -1.5. AiQ names a run line side only when one of its models beats the market price at the posted number, and none does here.

Texas Rangers at Minnesota Twins

7:10 PM CT at Target Field. Averaged over the outcomes the betting lines imply, the projected score is Texas Rangers 4.0, Minnesota Twins 3.9. That is an average, not a pick.

• Moneyline: The betting market, with the margin removed, gives Texas Rangers a 50.9% chance to beat Minnesota Twins. AiQ's moneyline pick is the side the consensus favors, here by less than a point. The price on record, -118, is priced below the fair price of -104 (−6.0% value).
• Total: The posted total is 7 runs. AiQ names a total side only when one of its models beats the market price at the posted number, and none does here. AiQ's projected total, 7.9 runs, comes from the same market prices, so it adds nothing to them.
• Run line: The posted run line is Texas Rangers -1.5 against Minnesota Twins +1.5. AiQ names a run line side only when one of its models beats the market price at the posted number, and none does here.

Arizona Diamondbacks at San Diego Padres

8:40 PM CT at Petco Park. Averaged over the outcomes the betting lines imply, the projected score is Arizona Diamondbacks 3.9, San Diego Padres 4.4. That is an average, not a pick.

• Moneyline: The betting market, with the margin removed, gives San Diego Padres a 54.2% chance to beat Arizona Diamondbacks. AiQ's moneyline pick is the side the consensus favors. The best price, -125 at Fanatics, is priced below the fair price of -118 (−2.4% value).
• Total: The posted total is 7.5 runs. AiQ names a total side only when one of its models beats the market price at the posted number, and none does here. AiQ's projected total, 8.3 runs, comes from the same market prices, so it adds nothing to them.
• Run line: The posted run line is Arizona Diamondbacks +1.5 against San Diego Padres -1.5. AiQ names a run line side only when one of its models beats the market price at the posted number, and none does here.

Houston Astros at Athletics

8:40 PM CT at Sutter Health Park. Averaged over the outcomes the betting lines imply, the projected score is Houston Astros 5.8, Athletics 4.0. That is an average, not a pick.

• Moneyline: The betting market, with the margin removed, gives Houston Astros a 63.5% chance to beat Athletics. AiQ's moneyline pick is the side the consensus favors. The best price, -175 at BetRivers, is priced near the fair price of -174 (−0.3% value).
• Total: The posted total is 9 runs. AiQ names a total side only when one of its models beats the market price at the posted number, and none does here. AiQ's projected total, 9.8 runs, comes from the same market prices, so it adds nothing to them.
• Run line: The posted run line is Houston Astros -1.5 against Athletics +1.5. AiQ names a run line side only when one of its models beats the market price at the posted number, and none does here.

Los Angeles Angels at Seattle Mariners

9:10 PM CT at T-Mobile Park. Averaged over the outcomes the betting lines imply, the projected score is Los Angeles Angels 3.4, Seattle Mariners 3.6. That is an average, not a pick.

• Moneyline: The betting market, with the margin removed, gives Seattle Mariners a 52.1% chance to beat Los Angeles Angels. AiQ's moneyline pick is the side the consensus favors. The price on record, -119, is priced below the fair price of -109 (−4.1% value).
• Total: The posted total is 6.5 runs. AiQ names a total side only when one of its models beats the market price at the posted number, and none does here. AiQ's projected total, 7.0 runs, comes from the same market prices, so it adds nothing to them.
• Run line: The posted run line is Los Angeles Angels -1.5 against Seattle Mariners +1.5. AiQ names a run line side only when one of its models beats the market price at the posted number, and none does here.

Los Angeles Dodgers at San Francisco Giants

9:15 PM CT at Oracle Park. Averaged over the outcomes the betting lines imply, the projected score is Los Angeles Dodgers 5.7, San Francisco Giants 2.8. That is an average, not a pick.

• Moneyline: The betting market, with the margin removed, gives Los Angeles Dodgers a 74.8% chance to beat San Francisco Giants. AiQ's moneyline pick is the side the consensus favors. The best price, -295 at BetRivers, is priced near the fair price of -296 (+0.1% value).
• Total: The posted total is 7.5 runs. AiQ names a total side only when one of its models beats the market price at the posted number, and none does here. AiQ's projected total, 8.5 runs, comes from the same market prices, so it adds nothing to them.
• Run line: The posted run line is Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 against San Francisco Giants +1.5. AiQ names a run line side only when one of its models beats the market price at the posted number, and none does here.

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