MLB Slate Analysis — Tuesday, September 22, 2026

Tuesday, September 22, 2026 · MLB

These games have been played. Picks and prices, where shown, are AiQ's from before each game started. See how they finished in the MLB recaps.

The MLB slate for Tuesday, September 22, 2026 has 15 games, the first at 12:05 PM CT. Toronto Blue Jays at Baltimore Orioles is postponed. AiQ has a moneyline pick on all 15. Of AiQ's picks on this slate, 8 have a price on record above fair value. Each price is the one AiQ valued the pick at when it last priced the game.

Best value

• San Diego Padres at Los Angeles Dodgers: Over 8.5 runs (+101 at Caesars, +6.1% value).
• Arizona Diamondbacks at Colorado Rockies: Over 11 runs (+100 at BetMGM, +5.8% value).
• Washington Nationals at Detroit Tigers: Over 8.5 runs (+104 at FanDuel, +4.6% value).
• Cincinnati Reds at Atlanta Braves: Over 9.5 runs (+106 at FanDuel, +3.5% value).
• Cleveland Guardians at Boston Red Sox: Cleveland Guardians +1.5 on the run line (-210 at BetMGM, +2.0% value).
• Tampa Bay Rays at New York Yankees: Under 7 runs (-108 at DraftKings, +1.7% value).
• Minnesota Twins at San Francisco Giants: Under 7 runs (+100 at BetMGM, +1.3% value).
• Milwaukee Brewers at Philadelphia Phillies: Over 7 runs (-120 at Fanatics, +1.1% value).

Every game

Tampa Bay Rays at New York Yankees

12:05 PM CT at Yankee Stadium.

• Moneyline: AiQ gives Tampa Bay Rays a 59% confidence rating to beat New York Yankees, its own model's number rather than a market price. Calibrated against the market and graded results, that is a 45.4% chance; the betting market, with the margin removed, has 44.8%. The best price, +116 at FanDuel, is priced below the fair price of +121 (−2.0% value).
• Total: AiQ gives the under 7 runs a 62% confidence rating, its own model's number rather than a market price. Calibrated against the market and graded results, that is a 52.8% chance; the betting market, with the margin removed, has 49.8%. The best price, -108 at DraftKings, is +1.7% value against the fair price of -112.
• Run line: AiQ gives New York Yankees -1.5 a 58% confidence rating to cover, its own model's number rather than a market price. Calibrated against the market and graded results, that is a 31.1% chance; the betting market, with the margin removed, has 35.6%. The best price, +170 at BetRivers, is priced below the fair price of +221 (−16.0% value).

Milwaukee Brewers at Philadelphia Phillies

5:40 PM CT at Citizens Bank Park.

• Moneyline: AiQ gives Milwaukee Brewers a 60% confidence rating to beat Philadelphia Phillies, its own model's number rather than a market price. Calibrated against the market and graded results, that is a 44.0% chance; the betting market, with the margin removed, has 43.3%. The best price, +120 at FanDuel, is priced below the fair price of +127 (−3.3% value).
• Total: AiQ gives the over 7 runs a 62% confidence rating, its own model's number rather than a market price. Calibrated against the market and graded results, that is a 55.1% chance; the betting market, with the margin removed, has 52.9%. The best price, -120 at Fanatics, is +1.1% value against the fair price of -123.
• Run line: AiQ gives Milwaukee Brewers +1.5 a 59% confidence rating to cover, its own model's number rather than a market price. Calibrated against the market and graded results, that is a 64.4% chance; the betting market, with the margin removed, has 63.5%. The best price, -185 at BetMGM, is priced below the fair price of -181 (−0.9% value).

St. Louis Cardinals at Pittsburgh Pirates

5:40 PM CT at PNC Park.

• Moneyline: AiQ gives Pittsburgh Pirates a 60% confidence rating to beat St. Louis Cardinals, its own model's number rather than a market price. Calibrated against the market and graded results, that is a 60.8% chance; the betting market, with the margin removed, has 60.8%. The price on record, -169, is priced below the fair price of -155 (−3.3% value).
• Total: AiQ gives the over 7 runs a 58% confidence rating, its own model's number rather than a market price. Calibrated against the market and graded results, that is a 53.5% chance; the betting market, with the margin removed, has 52.1%. The best price, -115 at DraftKings, is priced near the fair price of -115 (+0.1% value).
• Run line: AiQ gives St. Louis Cardinals +1.5 a 57% confidence rating to cover, its own model's number rather than a market price. Calibrated against the market and graded results, that is a 60.1% chance; the betting market, with the margin removed, has 59.6%. The best price, -155 at BetMGM, is priced below the fair price of -151 (−1.1% value).

Washington Nationals at Detroit Tigers

5:40 PM CT at Comerica Park.

• Moneyline: AiQ gives Detroit Tigers a 60% confidence rating to beat Washington Nationals, its own model's number rather than a market price. Calibrated against the market and graded results, that is a 59.0% chance; the betting market, with the margin removed, has 59.0%. The best price, -145 at Caesars, is priced near the fair price of -144 (−0.2% value).
• Total: AiQ gives the over 8.5 runs a 62% confidence rating, its own model's number rather than a market price. Calibrated against the market and graded results, that is a 51.3% chance; the betting market, with the margin removed, has 47.7%. The best price, +104 at FanDuel, is +4.6% value against the fair price of -105.
• Run line: AiQ gives Detroit Tigers -1.5 a 60% confidence rating to cover, its own model's number rather than a market price. Calibrated against the market and graded results, that is a 35.4% chance; the betting market, with the margin removed, has 39.5%. The best price, +142 at FanDuel, is priced below the fair price of +182 (−14.3% value).

Cleveland Guardians at Boston Red Sox

5:45 PM CT at Fenway Park.

• Moneyline: AiQ gives Cleveland Guardians a 60% confidence rating to beat Boston Red Sox, its own model's number rather than a market price. Calibrated against the market and graded results, that is a 47.2% chance; the betting market, with the margin removed, has 46.7%. The best price, +108 at Caesars, is priced below the fair price of +112 (−1.8% value).
• Total: AiQ gives the under 6 runs a 57% confidence rating, its own model's number rather than a market price. Calibrated against the market and graded results, that is a 50.9% chance; the betting market, with the margin removed, has 48.8%. The price on record, -105, is priced below the fair price of -104 (−0.7% value).
• Run line: AiQ gives Cleveland Guardians +1.5 a 58% confidence rating to cover, its own model's number rather than a market price. Calibrated against the market and graded results, that is a 69.1% chance; the betting market, with the margin removed, has 67.2%. The best price, -210 at BetMGM, is +2.0% value against the fair price of -223.

Tampa Bay Rays at New York Yankees

6:05 PM CT at Yankee Stadium.

• Moneyline: AiQ gives New York Yankees a 60% confidence rating to beat Tampa Bay Rays, its own model's number rather than a market price. Calibrated against the market and graded results, that is a 55.0% chance; the betting market, with the margin removed, has 54.7%. The best price, -130 at FanDuel, is priced below the fair price of -122 (−2.8% value).
• Total: AiQ gives the under 6 runs a 58% confidence rating, its own model's number rather than a market price. Calibrated against the market and graded results, that is a 52.2% chance; the betting market, with the margin removed, has 50.2%. The best price, -110 at Fanatics, is priced near the fair price of -109 (−0.4% value).
• Run line: AiQ gives New York Yankees -1.5 a 59% confidence rating to cover, its own model's number rather than a market price. Calibrated against the market and graded results, that is a 28.8% chance; the betting market, with the margin removed, has 33.8%. The best price, +176 at FanDuel, is priced below the fair price of +248 (−20.6% value).

Cincinnati Reds at Atlanta Braves

6:15 PM CT at Truist Park.

• Moneyline: AiQ gives Atlanta Braves a 65% confidence rating to beat Cincinnati Reds, its own model's number rather than a market price. Calibrated against the market and graded results, that is a 69.4% chance; the betting market, with the margin removed, has 69.6%. The best price, -230 at FanDuel, is priced near the fair price of -227 (−0.4% value).
• Total: AiQ gives the over 9.5 runs a 58% confidence rating, its own model's number rather than a market price. Calibrated against the market and graded results, that is a 50.3% chance; the betting market, with the margin removed, has 47.7%. The best price, +106 at FanDuel, is +3.5% value against the fair price of -101.
• Run line: AiQ gives Atlanta Braves -1.5 a 64% confidence rating to cover, its own model's number rather than a market price. Calibrated against the market and graded results, that is a 48.3% chance; the betting market, with the margin removed, has 50.9%. The best price, -108 at FanDuel, is priced below the fair price of +107 (−7.0% value).

Chicago White Sox at Kansas City Royals

6:40 PM CT at Kauffman Stadium.

• Moneyline: AiQ gives Chicago White Sox a 58% confidence rating to beat Kansas City Royals, its own model's number rather than a market price. Calibrated against the market and graded results, that is a 53.5% chance; the betting market, with the margin removed, has 53.3%. The best price, -117 at Caesars, is priced below the fair price of -115 (−0.7% value).
• Total: AiQ gives the under 8 runs a 60% confidence rating, its own model's number rather than a market price. Calibrated against the market and graded results, that is a 53.5% chance; the betting market, with the margin removed, has 51.4%. The best price, -115 at BetMGM, is priced near the fair price of -115 (+0.1% value).
• Run line: AiQ gives Chicago White Sox -1.5 a 58% confidence rating to cover, its own model's number rather than a market price. Calibrated against the market and graded results, that is a 35.3% chance; the betting market, with the margin removed, has 39.1%. The best price, +144 at Caesars, is priced below the fair price of +183 (−13.8% value).

Miami Marlins at Chicago Cubs

6:40 PM CT at Wrigley Field.

• Moneyline: AiQ gives Chicago Cubs a 65% confidence rating to beat Miami Marlins, its own model's number rather than a market price. Calibrated against the market and graded results, that is a 65.5% chance; the betting market, with the margin removed, has 65.5%. The best price, -200 at FanDuel, is priced below the fair price of -189 (−1.8% value).
• Total: AiQ gives the over 6.5 runs a 58% confidence rating, its own model's number rather than a market price. Calibrated against the market and graded results, that is a 53.4% chance; the betting market, with the margin removed, has 51.9%. The best price, -115 at Fanatics, is priced near the fair price of -115 (−0.2% value).
• Run line: AiQ gives Chicago Cubs -1.5 a 60% confidence rating to cover, its own model's number rather than a market price. Calibrated against the market and graded results, that is a 41.6% chance; the betting market, with the margin removed, has 44.7%. The best price, +115 at BetMGM, is priced below the fair price of +141 (−10.6% value).

New York Mets at Texas Rangers

7:05 PM CT at Globe Life Field.

• Moneyline: AiQ gives Texas Rangers a 60% confidence rating to beat New York Mets, its own model's number rather than a market price. Calibrated against the market and graded results, that is a 55.1% chance; the betting market, with the margin removed, has 54.8%. The best price, -125 at Fanatics, is priced below the fair price of -123 (−0.9% value).
• Total: AiQ gives the over 8 runs a 58% confidence rating, its own model's number rather than a market price. Calibrated against the market and graded results, that is a 51.8% chance; the betting market, with the margin removed, has 49.8%. The best price, -108 at DraftKings, is priced near the fair price of -108 (−0.2% value).
• Run line: AiQ gives Texas Rangers -1.5 a 59% confidence rating to cover, its own model's number rather than a market price. Calibrated against the market and graded results, that is a 31.9% chance; the betting market, with the margin removed, has 36.4%. The best price, +165 at Caesars, is priced below the fair price of +214 (−15.5% value).

Arizona Diamondbacks at Colorado Rockies

7:40 PM CT at Coors Field.

• Moneyline: AiQ gives Arizona Diamondbacks a 59% confidence rating to beat Colorado Rockies, its own model's number rather than a market price. Calibrated against the market and graded results, that is a 62.3% chance; the betting market, with the margin removed, has 62.4%. The best price, -180 at Fanatics, is priced below the fair price of -165 (−3.2% value).
• Total: AiQ gives the over 11 runs a 66% confidence rating, its own model's number rather than a market price. Calibrated against the market and graded results, that is a 52.9% chance; the betting market, with the margin removed, has 48.5%. The best price, +100 at BetMGM, is +5.8% value against the fair price of -112.
• Run line: AiQ gives Arizona Diamondbacks -1.5 a 58% confidence rating to cover, its own model's number rather than a market price. Calibrated against the market and graded results, that is a 51.2% chance; the betting market, with the margin removed, has 52.3%. The best price, -118 at FanDuel, is priced below the fair price of -105 (−5.4% value).

Los Angeles Angels at Athletics

8:40 PM CT at Sutter Health Park.

• Moneyline: AiQ gives Los Angeles Angels a 59% confidence rating to beat Athletics, its own model's number rather than a market price. Calibrated against the market and graded results, that is a 50.2% chance; the betting market, with the margin removed, has 49.8%. The price on record, -109, is priced below the fair price of -101 (−3.8% value).
• Total: AiQ gives the under 9.5 runs a 58% confidence rating, its own model's number rather than a market price. No book price at this line is confirmed on the record, so no value figure is given.
• Run line: AiQ gives Los Angeles Angels -1.5 a 58% confidence rating to cover, its own model's number rather than a market price. No book price at this line is confirmed on the record, so no value figure is given.

Houston Astros at Seattle Mariners

8:40 PM CT at T-Mobile Park.

• Moneyline: AiQ gives Seattle Mariners a 60% confidence rating to beat Houston Astros, its own model's number rather than a market price. Calibrated against the market and graded results, that is a 55.5% chance; the betting market, with the margin removed, has 55.3%. The best price, -130 at Fanatics, is priced below the fair price of -125 (−1.9% value).
• Total: AiQ gives the under 7 runs a 56% confidence rating, its own model's number rather than a market price. Calibrated against the market and graded results, that is a 49.8% chance; the betting market, with the margin removed, has 47.7%. The price on record, +100, is priced near the fair price of +101 (−0.5% value).
• Run line: AiQ gives Seattle Mariners -1.5 a 59% confidence rating to cover, its own model's number rather than a market price. Calibrated against the market and graded results, that is a 32.1% chance; the betting market, with the margin removed, has 36.5%. The best price, +157 at DraftKings, is priced below the fair price of +212 (−17.6% value).

Minnesota Twins at San Francisco Giants

8:45 PM CT at Oracle Park.

• Moneyline: AiQ gives Minnesota Twins a 60% confidence rating to beat San Francisco Giants, its own model's number rather than a market price. Calibrated against the market and graded results, that is a 55.7% chance; the betting market, with the margin removed, has 55.5%. The best price, -130 at Fanatics, is priced below the fair price of -125 (−1.5% value).
• Total: AiQ gives the under 7 runs a 57% confidence rating, its own model's number rather than a market price. Calibrated against the market and graded results, that is a 50.6% chance; the betting market, with the margin removed, has 48.5%. The best price, +100 at BetMGM, is +1.3% value against the fair price of -103.
• Run line: AiQ gives Minnesota Twins -1.5 a 57% confidence rating to cover, its own model's number rather than a market price. Calibrated against the market and graded results, that is a 37.9% chance; the betting market, with the margin removed, has 41.1%. The best price, +134 at FanDuel, is priced below the fair price of +164 (−11.3% value).

San Diego Padres at Los Angeles Dodgers

9:10 PM CT at Dodger Stadium.

• Moneyline: AiQ gives Los Angeles Dodgers a 59% confidence rating to beat San Diego Padres, its own model's number rather than a market price. Calibrated against the market and graded results, that is a 54.7% chance; the betting market, with the margin removed, has 54.5%. The best price, -125 at Caesars, is priced below the fair price of -121 (−1.5% value).
• Total: AiQ gives the over 8.5 runs a 66% confidence rating, its own model's number rather than a market price. Calibrated against the market and graded results, that is a 52.8% chance; the betting market, with the margin removed, has 48.4%. The best price, +101 at Caesars, is +6.1% value against the fair price of -112.
• Run line: AiQ gives Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 a 60% confidence rating to cover, its own model's number rather than a market price. Calibrated against the market and graded results, that is a 31.9% chance; the betting market, with the margin removed, has 36.5%. The best price, +163 at Caesars, is priced below the fair price of +214 (−16.2% value).

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