MLB Slate Analysis — Monday, September 21, 2026
Monday, September 21, 2026 · MLB
These games have been played. Picks and prices, where shown, are AiQ's from before each game started. See how they finished in the MLB recaps.
The MLB slate for Monday, September 21, 2026 has 3 games, the first at 5:35 PM CT. AiQ has a moneyline pick on all 3. None of AiQ's picks on this slate has a price on record above fair value. Each price is the one AiQ valued the pick at when it last priced the game.
Every game
Toronto Blue Jays at Baltimore Orioles
5:35 PM CT at Oriole Park at Camden Yards.
- Moneyline: AiQ gives Baltimore Orioles a 55% confidence rating to beat Toronto Blue Jays, its own model's number rather than a market price. Calibrated against the market and graded results, that is a 50.2% chance; the betting market, with the margin removed, has 50.0%. The price on record, -110, is priced below the fair price of -101 (−4.1% value).
- Total: AiQ gives the over 7.5 runs a 57% confidence rating, its own model's number rather than a market price. No book price at this line is confirmed on the record, so no value figure is given.
- Run line: AiQ gives Toronto Blue Jays -1.5 a 58% confidence rating to cover, its own model's number rather than a market price. No book price at this line is confirmed on the record, so no value figure is given.
Washington Nationals at Detroit Tigers
5:40 PM CT at Comerica Park.
- Moneyline: AiQ gives Detroit Tigers a 59% confidence rating to beat Washington Nationals, its own model's number rather than a market price. Calibrated against the market and graded results, that is a 55.0% chance; the betting market, with the margin removed, has 54.8%. The best price, -130 at Fanatics, is priced below the fair price of -122 (−2.7% value).
- Total: AiQ gives the over 8.5 runs a 56% confidence rating, its own model's number rather than a market price. Calibrated against the market and graded results, that is a 52.3% chance; the betting market, with the margin removed, has 51.2%. The best price, -110 at FanDuel, is priced near the fair price of -110 (−0.1% value).
- Run line: AiQ gives Detroit Tigers -1.5 a 60% confidence rating to cover, its own model's number rather than a market price. Calibrated against the market and graded results, that is a 32.2% chance; the betting market, with the margin removed, has 37.2%. The best price, +155 at FanDuel, is priced below the fair price of +210 (−17.8% value).
Minnesota Twins at San Francisco Giants
8:45 PM CT at Oracle Park.
- Moneyline: AiQ gives Minnesota Twins a 60% confidence rating to beat San Francisco Giants, its own model's number rather than a market price. Calibrated against the market and graded results, that is a 53.6% chance; the betting market, with the margin removed, has 53.3%. The price on record, -125, is priced below the fair price of -116 (−3.5% value).
- Total: AiQ gives the under 8 runs a 57% confidence rating, its own model's number rather than a market price. Calibrated against the market and graded results, that is a 51.4% chance; the betting market, with the margin removed, has 49.7%. The best price, -106 at DraftKings, is priced near the fair price of -106 (−0.1% value).
- Run line: AiQ gives Minnesota Twins -1.5 a 57% confidence rating to cover, its own model's number rather than a market price. Calibrated against the market and graded results, that is a 36.3% chance; the betting market, with the margin removed, has 40.0%. The best price, +140 at Caesars, is priced below the fair price of +176 (−13.0% value).