EPL Slate Analysis — Sunday, November 8, 2026
Sunday, November 8, 2026 · Premier League
These matches have been played. Picks and prices, where shown, are AiQ's from before each match started. See how they finished in the Premier League recaps.
The EPL slate for Sunday, November 8, 2026 has 5 matchs, the first at 8:00 AM CT. AiQ has a moneyline pick on all 5. Of AiQ's picks on this slate, 1 has a price on record above fair value. Each price is the one AiQ valued the pick at when it last priced the game.
Best value
- Chelsea vs Sunderland: Chelsea on the moneyline (-105 at BetMGM, +1.4% value).
Every match
AFC Bournemouth vs Ipswich Town
8:00 AM CT at Portman Road.
AFC Bournemouth have won 3, drawn 3 and lost 3 of their 9 matches this season, winning the last three. Ipswich Town have won 3, drawn 2 and lost 4 of their 9 matches this season, winning one of the last five.
- Moneyline: AiQ gives a draw between AFC Bournemouth and Ipswich Town a 58% confidence rating, its own model's number rather than a market price. Calibrated against the market and graded results, that is a 25.2% chance; the betting market, with the margin removed, has 25.6%. The best price, +285 at BetRivers, is priced below the fair price of +297 (−2.9% value).
- Total goals: AiQ gives the over 2.5 goals a 54% confidence rating, its own model's number rather than a market price. Calibrated against the market and graded results, that is a 56.1% chance; the betting market, with the margin removed, has 56.3%. The best price, -145 at BetMGM, is priced below the fair price of -128 (−5.2% value).
Chelsea vs Sunderland
8:00 AM CT at Stadium of Light.
Chelsea have won 5, drawn 1 and lost 3 of their 9 matches this season, winning three of the last five. Sunderland have won 1, drawn 2 and lost 6 of their 9 matches this season, without a win in the last five. When these teams last met, on May 24, 2026, Sunderland won 2-1 at home.
- Moneyline: AiQ gives Chelsea a 58% confidence rating to beat Sunderland, its own model's number rather than a market price. Calibrated against the market and graded results, that is a 51.9% chance; the betting market, with the margin removed, has 52.0%. The best price, -105 at BetMGM, is +1.4% value against the fair price of -108.
- Total goals: AiQ gives the over 2.5 goals a 60% confidence rating, its own model's number rather than a market price. Calibrated against the market and graded results, that is a 53.9% chance; the betting market, with the margin removed, has 53.3%. The best price, -134 at BetRivers, is priced below the fair price of -117 (−5.8% value).
Trends in play.
Recent totals lean over. Chelsea went over the total in 8 of their last 10 matches.
Liverpool vs Crystal Palace
8:00 AM CT at Selhurst Park.
Crystal Palace have won 2, drawn 1 and lost 6 of their 9 matches this season, losing the last three. Liverpool have won 7, drawn 3 and lost 3 of their 13 matches this season, winning three of the last five. Crystal Palace come in with more rest: their last match was on October 31, eight days before this one, while Liverpool played four days before. When these teams last met, on April 25, 2026, Liverpool won 3-1 at home.
- Moneyline: AiQ gives Liverpool a 58% confidence rating to beat Crystal Palace, its own model's number rather than a market price. Calibrated against the market and graded results, that is a 62.3% chance; the betting market, with the margin removed, has 62.2%. The best price, -165 at BetMGM, is priced near the fair price of -165 (−0.0% value).
- Total goals: AiQ gives the under 3.5 goals a 58% confidence rating, its own model's number rather than a market price. Calibrated against the market and graded results, that is a 58.0% chance; the betting market, with the margin removed, has 58.0%. The best price, -160 at BetMGM, is priced below the fair price of -138 (−5.8% value).
Trends in play.
Recent totals lean over. Crystal Palace went over the total in 7 of their last 10 matches.
Brentford vs Brighton & Hove Albion
8:00 AM CT at American Express Stadium.
Brentford have won 3, drawn 5 and lost 1 of their 9 matches this season, winning two of the last five. Brighton & Hove Albion have won 6, drawn 1 and lost 2 of their 9 matches this season, winning four of the last five. When these teams last met, on February 21, 2026, Brighton & Hove Albion won 2-0 on the road.
- Moneyline: AiQ gives Brighton & Hove Albion a 58% confidence rating to beat Brentford, its own model's number rather than a market price. Calibrated against the market and graded results, that is a 51.9% chance; the betting market, with the margin removed, has 51.9%. The best price, -110 at Fanatics, is priced below the fair price of -108 (−1.0% value).
- Total goals: AiQ gives the over 2.5 goals a 54% confidence rating, its own model's number rather than a market price. Calibrated against the market and graded results, that is a 59.5% chance; the betting market, with the margin removed, has 60.2%. The best price, -175 at BetMGM, is priced below the fair price of -147 (−6.4% value).
Aston Villa vs Manchester United
10:30 AM CT at Old Trafford.
Aston Villa have won 6, drawn 3 and lost 4 of their 13 matches this season, winning three of the last five. Manchester United have won 3, drawn 4 and lost 6 of their 13 matches this season, winning one of the last five. When these teams last met, on March 15, 2026, Manchester United won 3-1 at home.
- Moneyline: AiQ gives a draw between Aston Villa and Manchester United a 56% confidence rating, its own model's number rather than a market price. Calibrated against the market and graded results, that is a 23.6% chance; the betting market, with the margin removed, has 24.0%. The best price, +300 at Fanatics, is priced below the fair price of +324 (−5.6% value).
- Total goals: AiQ gives the under 3.5 goals a 54% confidence rating, its own model's number rather than a market price. Calibrated against the market and graded results, that is a 57.5% chance; the betting market, with the margin removed, has 57.8%. The best price, -159 at BetRivers, is priced below the fair price of -135 (−6.4% value).
Trends in play.
Recent totals lean over. Aston Villa went over the total in 7 of their last 10 matches.
These come from the closing lines of this season and last. They are context, not the reason for AiQ's picks, and the books price them in.