EPL Slate Analysis — Saturday, October 31, 2026
Saturday, October 31, 2026 · Premier League
These matches have been played. Picks and prices, where shown, are AiQ's from before each match started. See how they finished in the Premier League recaps.
The EPL slate for Saturday, October 31, 2026 has 8 matchs, the first at 7:30 AM CT. AiQ has a moneyline pick on all 8. Of AiQ's picks on this slate, 1 has a price on record above fair value. Each price is the one AiQ valued the pick at when it last priced the game.
Best value
- Leeds United vs AFC Bournemouth: Under 2.5 goals (-109 at BetRivers, +1.6% value).
Every match
Manchester United vs Chelsea
7:30 AM CT at Stamford Bridge.
Manchester United have won 2, drawn 4 and lost 5 of their 11 matches this season, without a win in the last five. Chelsea have won 4, drawn 1 and lost 3 of their 8 matches this season, winning two of the last five. When these teams last met, on April 18, 2026, Manchester United won 1-0 on the road.
- Moneyline: AiQ gives Chelsea a 58% confidence rating to beat Manchester United, its own model's number rather than a market price. Calibrated against the market and graded results, that is a 43.7% chance; the betting market, with the margin removed, has 42.9%. The price on record, +125, is priced below the fair price of +129 (−1.8% value).
- Total goals: AiQ gives the over 2.5 goals a 58% confidence rating, its own model's number rather than a market price. Calibrated against the market and graded results, that is a 58.8% chance; the betting market, with the margin removed, has 58.9%. The best price, -165 at BetMGM, is priced below the fair price of -143 (−5.6% value).
Trends in play.
Recent totals lean over. Chelsea went over the total in 8 of their last 10 matches.
Ipswich Town vs Hull City
10:00 AM CT at The MKM Stadium.
Ipswich Town have won 3, drawn 1 and lost 4 of their 8 matches this season, winning two of the last five. Hull City have won 2, drawn 4 and lost 2 of their 8 matches this season, without a win in the last five. Ipswich Town come in with more rest: their last match was on October 23, eight days before this one, while Hull City played six days before.
- Moneyline: AiQ gives Ipswich Town a 56% confidence rating to beat Hull City, its own model's number rather than a market price. Calibrated against the market and graded results, that is a 38.5% chance; the betting market, with the margin removed, has 37.6%. The best price, +160 at Fanatics, is priced near the fair price of +160 (+0.1% value).
- Total goals: AiQ gives the under 2.5 goals a 58% confidence rating, its own model's number rather than a market price. Calibrated against the market and graded results, that is a 50.7% chance; the betting market, with the margin removed, has 49.5%. The best price, -112 at BetRivers, is priced below the fair price of -103 (−4.0% value).
Brighton & Hove Albion vs Manchester City
10:00 AM CT at Etihad Stadium.
Brighton & Hove Albion have won 5, drawn 1 and lost 2 of their 8 matches this season, winning four of the last five. Manchester City have won 9 and lost 2 of their 11 matches this season, winning three of the last five.
- Moneyline: AiQ gives Manchester City a 57% confidence rating to beat Brighton & Hove Albion, its own model's number rather than a market price. Calibrated against the market and graded results, that is a 56.0% chance; the betting market, with the margin removed, has 56.0%. The price on record, -135, is priced below the fair price of -127 (−2.5% value).
- Total goals: AiQ gives the over 3.5 goals a 58% confidence rating, its own model's number rather than a market price. Calibrated against the market and graded results, that is a 44.4% chance; the betting market, with the margin removed, has 42.1%. The best price, +120 at BetMGM, is priced below the fair price of +125 (−2.2% value).
Trends in play.
Recent totals lean under. Manchester City went under the total in 8 of their last 10 matches.
Sunderland vs Coventry City
10:00 AM CT at Coventry Building Society Arena.
Sunderland have won 1, drawn 2 and lost 5 of their 8 matches this season, without a win in the last five. Coventry City have won 2 and lost 6 of their 8 matches this season, winning two of the last five.
- Moneyline: AiQ gives a draw between Sunderland and Coventry City a 58% confidence rating, its own model's number rather than a market price. Calibrated against the market and graded results, that is a 30.3% chance; the betting market, with the margin removed, has 28.9%. The price on record, +230, is priced near the fair price of +230 (−0.0% value).
- Total goals: AiQ gives the under 2.5 goals a 53% confidence rating, its own model's number rather than a market price. Calibrated against the market and graded results, that is a 51.2% chance; the betting market, with the margin removed, has 51.2%. The best price, -120 at BetMGM, is priced below the fair price of -105 (−6.1% value).
Nottingham Forest vs Brentford
10:00 AM CT at Gtech Community Stadium.
Nottingham Forest have won 1, drawn 3 and lost 4 of their 8 matches this season, winning one of the last five. Brentford have won 2, drawn 5 and lost 1 of their 8 matches this season, winning one of the last five. Nottingham Forest come in with more rest: their last match was on October 23, eight days before this one, while Brentford played six days before.
- Moneyline: AiQ gives Brentford a 58% confidence rating to beat Nottingham Forest, its own model's number rather than a market price. Calibrated against the market and graded results, that is a 45.7% chance; the betting market, with the margin removed, has 45.1%. The price on record, +115, is priced below the fair price of +119 (−1.7% value).
- Total goals: AiQ gives the under 2.5 goals a 51% confidence rating, its own model's number rather than a market price. Calibrated against the market and graded results, that is a 42.2% chance; the betting market, with the margin removed, has 42.2%. The best price, +123 at BetRivers, is priced below the fair price of +137 (−6.0% value).
Leeds United vs AFC Bournemouth
10:00 AM CT at Vitality Stadium.
Leeds United have won 2, drawn 5 and lost 1 of their 8 matches this season, winning one of the last five. AFC Bournemouth have won 2, drawn 3 and lost 3 of their 8 matches this season, winning two of the last five. When these teams last met, on April 22, 2026, they drew 2-2.
- Moneyline: AiQ gives AFC Bournemouth a 56% confidence rating to beat Leeds United, its own model's number rather than a market price. Calibrated against the market and graded results, that is a 46.6% chance; the betting market, with the margin removed, has 46.1%. The price on record, +110, is priced below the fair price of +115 (−2.2% value).
- Total goals: AiQ gives the under 2.5 goals a 58% confidence rating, its own model's number rather than a market price. Calibrated against the market and graded results, that is a 53.0% chance; the betting market, with the margin removed, has 52.1%. The best price, -109 at BetRivers, is +1.6% value against the fair price of -113.
Crystal Palace vs Tottenham Hotspur
12:30 PM CT at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium.
Crystal Palace have won 2, drawn 1 and lost 5 of their 8 matches this season, winning one of the last five. Tottenham Hotspur have won 2, drawn 3 and lost 3 of their 8 matches this season, winning two of the last five. When these teams last met, on March 5, 2026, Crystal Palace won 3-1 on the road.
- Moneyline: AiQ gives Tottenham Hotspur a 57% confidence rating to beat Crystal Palace, its own model's number rather than a market price. Calibrated against the market and graded results, that is a 58.4% chance; the betting market, with the margin removed, has 58.5%. The price on record, -150, is priced below the fair price of -140 (−2.7% value).
- Total goals: AiQ gives the under 2.5 goals a 55% confidence rating, its own model's number rather than a market price. Calibrated against the market and graded results, that is a 46.4% chance; the betting market, with the margin removed, has 44.9%. The best price, +116 at BetRivers, is priced near the fair price of +115 (+0.2% value).
Trends in play.
Recent totals lean over. Crystal Palace went over the total in 7 of their last 10 matches.
Fulham vs Aston Villa
3:00 PM CT at Villa Park.
Aston Villa have won 6, drawn 2 and lost 3 of their 11 matches this season, winning the last four. Fulham have won 2, drawn 2 and lost 4 of their 8 matches this season, winning two of the last five. When these teams last met, on April 25, 2026, Fulham won 1-0 at home.
- Moneyline: AiQ gives Aston Villa a 58% confidence rating to beat Fulham, its own model's number rather than a market price. Calibrated against the market and graded results, that is a 47.8% chance; the betting market, with the margin removed, has 47.3%. The price on record, +105, is priced below the fair price of +109 (−1.9% value).
- Total goals: AiQ gives the over 2.5 goals a 56% confidence rating, its own model's number rather than a market price. Calibrated against the market and graded results, that is a 53.1% chance; the betting market, with the margin removed, has 52.6%. The best price, -130 at BetMGM, is priced below the fair price of -113 (−6.0% value).
Trends in play.
The total pulls both ways. Aston Villa went over the total in 7 of their last 10 matches. Meanwhile, Fulham went under the total in 7 of their last 10 matches.
These come from the closing lines of this season and last. They are context, not the reason for AiQ's picks, and the books price them in.