EPL Slate Analysis — Sunday, October 25, 2026
Sunday, October 25, 2026 · Premier League
These matches have been played. Picks and prices, where shown, are AiQ's from before each match started. See how they finished in the Premier League recaps.
The EPL slate for Sunday, October 25, 2026 has 5 matchs, the first at 9:00 AM CT. AiQ has a moneyline pick on all 5. Of AiQ's picks on this slate, 2 have a price on record above fair value. Each price is the one AiQ valued the pick at when it last priced the game.
Best value
- Brentford vs Hull City: Under 2.5 goals (+130 at BetRivers, +4.8% value).
- Brighton & Hove Albion vs Liverpool: Over 3.5 goals (+135 at BetRivers, +2.6% value).
Every match
Brighton & Hove Albion vs Liverpool
9:00 AM CT at Anfield.
Brighton & Hove Albion have won 5, drawn 1 and lost 1 of their 7 matches this season, winning the last four. Liverpool have won 6, drawn 3 and lost 1 of their 10 matches this season, winning the last three. Brighton & Hove Albion come in with more rest: their last match was on October 18, seven days before this one, while Liverpool played five days before. When these teams last met, on March 21, 2026, Brighton & Hove Albion won 2-1 at home.
- Moneyline: AiQ gives Brighton & Hove Albion a 60% confidence rating to beat Liverpool, its own model's number rather than a market price. Calibrated against the market and graded results, that is a 30.7% chance; the betting market, with the margin removed, has 29.9%. The best price, +225 at BetRivers, is priced near the fair price of +226 (−0.4% value).
- Total goals: AiQ gives the over 3.5 goals a 54% confidence rating, its own model's number rather than a market price. Calibrated against the market and graded results, that is a 43.7% chance; the betting market, with the margin removed, has 38.8%. The best price, +135 at BetRivers, is +2.6% value against the fair price of +129.
Brentford vs Hull City
9:00 AM CT at The MKM Stadium.
Brentford have won 2, drawn 4 and lost 1 of their 7 matches this season. Hull City have won 2, drawn 3 and lost 2 of their 7 matches this season.
- Moneyline: AiQ gives a draw between Brentford and Hull City a 58% confidence rating, its own model's number rather than a market price. Calibrated against the market and graded results, that is a 23.5% chance; the betting market, with the margin removed, has 22.6%. The price on record, +310, is priced below the fair price of +326 (−3.7% value).
- Total goals: AiQ gives the under 2.5 goals a 54% confidence rating, its own model's number rather than a market price. Calibrated against the market and graded results, that is a 45.6% chance; the betting market, with the margin removed, has 41.6%. The best price, +130 at BetRivers, is +4.8% value against the fair price of +119.
AFC Bournemouth vs Manchester United
9:00 AM CT at Old Trafford.
AFC Bournemouth have won 1, drawn 3 and lost 3 of their 7 matches this season. Manchester United have won 2, drawn 4 and lost 4 of their 10 matches this season, without a win in the last five. AFC Bournemouth come in with more rest: their last match was on October 18, seven days before this one, while Manchester United played four days before. When these teams last met, on March 20, 2026, they drew 2-2.
- Moneyline: AiQ gives Manchester United a 58% confidence rating to beat AFC Bournemouth, its own model's number rather than a market price. Calibrated against the market and graded results, that is a 40.6% chance; the betting market, with the margin removed, has 40.1%. The price on record, +140, is priced below the fair price of +146 (−2.6% value).
- Total goals: AiQ gives the over 2.5 goals a 58% confidence rating, its own model's number rather than a market price. Calibrated against the market and graded results, that is a 56.1% chance; the betting market, with the margin removed, has 55.3%. The best price, -140 at BetMGM, is priced below the fair price of -128 (−3.8% value).
Newcastle United vs Crystal Palace
9:00 AM CT at Selhurst Park.
Newcastle United have won 2, drawn 2 and lost 3 of their 7 matches this season. Crystal Palace have won 2, drawn 1 and lost 4 of their 7 matches this season. When these teams last met, on April 12, 2026, Crystal Palace won 2-1 at home.
- Moneyline: AiQ gives a draw between Newcastle United and Crystal Palace a 56% confidence rating, its own model's number rather than a market price. Calibrated against the market and graded results, that is a 26.6% chance; the betting market, with the margin removed, has 25.9%. The price on record, +265, is priced below the fair price of +276 (−2.8% value).
- Total goals: AiQ gives the under 3.5 goals a 52% confidence rating, its own model's number rather than a market price. Calibrated against the market and graded results, that is a 61.2% chance; the betting market, with the margin removed, has 61.2%. The price on record, -185, is priced below the fair price of -158 (−5.7% value).
Trends in play.
Recent totals lean over. Crystal Palace went over the total in 7 of their last 10 matches.
Leeds United vs Sunderland
11:30 AM CT at Stadium of Light.
Sunderland have won 1, drawn 1 and lost 5 of their 7 matches this season, losing the last four. Leeds United have won 2, drawn 4 and lost 1 of their 7 matches this season. When these teams last met, on March 3, 2026, Sunderland won 1-0 on the road.
- Moneyline: AiQ gives a draw between Leeds United and Sunderland a 56% confidence rating, its own model's number rather than a market price. Calibrated against the market and graded results, that is a 31.3% chance; the betting market, with the margin removed, has 30.6%. The price on record, +210, is priced below the fair price of +220 (−3.1% value).
- Total goals: AiQ gives the under 2.5 goals a 58% confidence rating, its own model's number rather than a market price. Calibrated against the market and graded results, that is a 57.9% chance; the betting market, with the margin removed, has 57.8%. The best price, -150 at BetRivers, is priced below the fair price of -137 (−3.5% value).
These come from the closing lines of this season and last. They are context, not the reason for AiQ's picks, and the books price them in.