EPL Slate Analysis — Saturday, October 24, 2026
Saturday, October 24, 2026 · Premier League
These matches have been played. Picks and prices, where shown, are AiQ's from before each match started. See how they finished in the Premier League recaps.
The EPL slate for Saturday, October 24, 2026 has 4 matchs, the first at 6:30 AM CT. AiQ has a moneyline pick on all 4. None of AiQ's picks on this slate has a price on record above fair value. Each price is the one AiQ valued the pick at when it last priced the game.
Every match
Manchester City vs Aston Villa
6:30 AM CT at Villa Park.
Aston Villa have won 5, drawn 2 and lost 3 of their 10 matches this season, winning the last three. Manchester City have won 9 and lost 1 of their 10 matches this season, winning four of the last five. When these teams last met, on May 24, 2026, Aston Villa won 2-1 on the road.
- Moneyline: AiQ gives Manchester City a 60% confidence rating to beat Aston Villa, its own model's number rather than a market price. Calibrated against the market and graded results, that is a 59.4% chance; the betting market, with the margin removed, has 59.4%. The best price, -150 at BetMGM, is priced below the fair price of -146 (−0.9% value).
- Total goals: AiQ gives the over 3.5 goals a 58% confidence rating, its own model's number rather than a market price. Calibrated against the market and graded results, that is a 47.5% chance; the betting market, with the margin removed, has 44.6%. The best price, +110 at BetRivers, is priced near the fair price of +110 (−0.2% value).
Trends in play.
The total pulls both ways. Manchester City went under the total in 8 of their last 10 matches. Meanwhile, Aston Villa went over the total in 7 of their last 10 matches.
Everton vs Arsenal
9:00 AM CT at Emirates Stadium.
Everton have won 2, drawn 4 and lost 1 of their 7 matches this season. Arsenal have won 8, drawn 1 and lost 1 of their 10 matches this season, winning three of the last five. Everton come in with more rest: their last match was on October 17, seven days before this one, while Arsenal played three days before. When these teams last met, on March 14, 2026, Arsenal won 2-0 at home.
- Moneyline: AiQ gives Arsenal a 58% confidence rating to beat Everton, its own model's number rather than a market price. Calibrated against the market and graded results, that is a 67.6% chance; the betting market, with the margin removed, has 68.1%. The best price, -220 at BetMGM, is priced below the fair price of -209 (−1.7% value).
- Total goals: AiQ gives the over 2.5 goals a 56% confidence rating, its own model's number rather than a market price. Calibrated against the market and graded results, that is a 54.1% chance; the betting market, with the margin removed, has 53.6%. The best price, -129 at BetRivers, is priced below the fair price of -118 (−3.9% value).
Fulham vs Coventry City
9:00 AM CT at Coventry Building Society Arena.
Fulham have won 1, drawn 2 and lost 4 of their 7 matches this season. Coventry City have won 2 and lost 5 of their 7 matches this season. Fulham come in with more rest: their last match was on October 17, seven days before this one, while Coventry City played five days before.
- Moneyline: AiQ gives Fulham a 56% confidence rating to beat Coventry City, its own model's number rather than a market price. Calibrated against the market and graded results, that is a 43.4% chance; the betting market, with the margin removed, has 42.7%. The price on record, +125, is priced below the fair price of +131 (−2.5% value).
- Total goals: AiQ gives the under 2.5 goals a 58% confidence rating, its own model's number rather than a market price. Calibrated against the market and graded results, that is a 48.4% chance; the betting market, with the margin removed, has 45.7%. The best price, +106 at BetRivers, is priced near the fair price of +107 (−0.4% value).
Trends in play.
Recent totals lean under. Fulham went under the total in 7 of their last 10 matches.
Tottenham Hotspur vs Chelsea
11:30 AM CT at Stamford Bridge.
Tottenham Hotspur have won 1, drawn 3 and lost 3 of their 7 matches this season. Chelsea have won 4, drawn 1 and lost 2 of their 7 matches this season. Chelsea come in with more rest: their last match was on October 17, seven days before this one, while Tottenham Hotspur played five days before. When these teams last met, on May 19, 2026, Chelsea won 2-1 at home.
- Moneyline: AiQ gives Chelsea a 58% confidence rating to beat Tottenham Hotspur, its own model's number rather than a market price. Calibrated against the market and graded results, that is a 52.0% chance; the betting market, with the margin removed, has 51.7%. The price on record, -115, is priced below the fair price of -108 (−2.8% value).
- Total goals: AiQ gives the under 3.5 goals a 58% confidence rating, its own model's number rather than a market price. Calibrated against the market and graded results, that is a 60.4% chance; the betting market, with the margin removed, has 61.0%. The best price, -162 at BetRivers, is priced below the fair price of -152 (−2.4% value).
Trends in play.
Recent totals lean over. Chelsea went over the total in 8 of their last 10 matches.
These come from the closing lines of this season and last. They are context, not the reason for AiQ's picks, and the books price them in.