Toronto FC defeat CF Montréal 2-1: Match Recap, Betting Results & AiQ Picks
Sat, Oct 10, 2026 · MLS · CF Montréal 1, Toronto FC 2
Toronto FC defeated CF Montréal 2–1 on Saturday, October 10 at BMO Field. The favorite covered the moneyline at -105, and the match finished over 2.5 goals. AiQ's picks on the moneyline and total both won; the player-prop slate went 1–2.
CF Montréal vs. Toronto FC final score and match recap
The first half ended scoreless, with both sides creating chances but neither breaking through. Toronto FC scored twice to win 2-1.
Did CF Montréal vs. Toronto FC go over or under the goals total?
The match finished with three goals, going over the 2.5 line. AiQ's Over 2.5 pick at 54% confidence won.
How did AiQ's CF Montréal vs. Toronto FC predictions do?
AiQ posted a 3–2 record across every graded pick on this match.
- Moneyline: Toronto FC –105 – WIN (+$95.24 on a $100 bet)
- Total goals: Over 2.5 – WIN
- Player props: 1–2 (+$10 on $100 per pick at listed prices)
The model correctly identified Toronto FC as the winner and the total to exceed the line. The player-prop mix delivered one win and two losses.
CF Montréal vs. Toronto FC player prop results
AiQ's player-prop record stood at 1–2, netting +$10 on $100 stakes.
- Luca Petrasso (CF Montréal) over 0.5 shots at +210; actual: 2 – WIN
- Luca Petrasso (CF Montréal) over 0.5 shots on target at +650; actual: 0 – LOSS
- Daniel Ríos (CF Montréal) over 0.5 assists at +480; actual: 0 – LOSS
The shots prop for Petrasso hit, but the shots-on-target and assist lines fell short.
CF Montréal vs. Toronto FC game prop results: draw no bet and both teams to score
- Both teams to score: Yes (paid -205) – each side found the net in the second half.
CF Montréal vs. Toronto FC odds: sportsbook value and line movement
The opening three-way moneyline listed CF Montréal at +247, a draw at +270, and Toronto FC at -105. Removing the vig, the implied probabilities were 27% for CF Montréal, 48% for Toronto FC, and 25% for a draw, with a bookmaker margin of 7.1%. Toronto FC won at -105, paying $95.24 on a $100 wager. AiQ's pre-game expected value for the Toronto FC pick was –0.3% at +105 (best price at Fanatics), indicating the model liked the side but found the price slightly negative-EV. The market's implied win probability of 49% matched AiQ's calibrated estimate of 49%, suggesting the odds accurately reflected the model's confidence.
CF Montréal and Toronto FC betting trends: 2026 season
CF Montréal sits at 6–6–16 through 28 matches, with a home record of 4–5–5 and an away/neutral tally of 2–1–11. In the 26 games where a closing total was recorded, the Over hit 14 times and the Under 12 times. Their last five results: L, W, L, L, L.
Toronto FC holds a 7–11–10 record in 28 games, posting a home mark of 5–8–2 and an away/neutral record of 2–3–8. Their total-goals line has gone Over 15 times and Under 11 times in 26 recorded games. Their most recent five results: W, L, L, L, W.
What's next for CF Montréal and Toronto FC?
CF Montréal will host Nashville SC on Saturday, October 24. Toronto FC travels to Columbus Crew for their next match, also on Saturday, October 24.