Villarreal defeat Napoli 3-1: Match Recap, Betting Results & AiQ Picks
Tue, Oct 13, 2026 · Champions League · Napoli 1, Villarreal 3
Villarreal defeated Napoli 3–1 on Tuesday, October 13 at the Estadio de la Cerámica. The match went over 2.5 goals, finishing with four. AiQ backed Villarreal on the moneyline at +118 and won that pick, but finished 2–8 overall across all graded selections.
Napoli vs. Villarreal final score and match recap
At halftime, Napoli led 1–0, but Villarreal equalized and took a 2–1 advantage by the break. Villarreal added a third goal in the second half to seal the 3–1 victory. Amir Rrahmani scored for Napoli, while Santiago Mouriño and Georges Mikautadze each found the net for Villarreal.
Did Napoli vs. Villarreal go over or under the goals total?
The match finished with four goals, going over the 2.5 total by 1.5. AiQ had taken the under at 58% confidence and lost.
How did AiQ's Napoli vs. Villarreal predictions do?
AiQ finished 2–8 across every graded pick on this fixture.
- Moneyline: Villarreal +118 – WIN
- Total goals: Under 2.5 – LOSS
- Player props: 1–7 – LOSS
The model correctly identified the winner but missed the total and seven of eight player propositions.
Napoli vs. Villarreal player prop results
AiQ's player-prop record was 1–7, netting a $560 loss on $100 stakes per pick.
- Pape Gueye over 0.5 shots on target at -110 – 0 – LOSS
- Pape Gueye goal scorer anytime at +425 – 0 – LOSS
- Alberto Moleiro over 0.5 assists at +360 – 0 – LOSS
- Alberto Moleiro over 0.5 shots on target at -145 – 0 – LOSS
- Alberto Moleiro goal scorer anytime at +310 – 0 – LOSS
- Alberto Moleiro over 2.5 shots at +175 – 2 – LOSS
- Renato Veiga over 0.5 assists at +1200 – 0 – LOSS
- Renato Veiga over 0.5 shots at +140 – 1 – WIN
Only Renato Veiga's shot line cashed. The remaining seven props fell short of their thresholds.
Napoli vs. Villarreal game prop results: both teams to score and draw no bet
- Both teams to score: Yes – paid -155
- Draw no bet: Villarreal cashed – paid -170
Napoli vs. Villarreal odds: sportsbook value and line movement
The three-way moneyline closed at Napoli +228, Draw +245, Villarreal +118. With vig removed, the implied probabilities were 29% for Napoli, 44% for Villarreal, and 28% for a draw, reflecting a 5.3% bookmaker margin. Villarreal, the favorite, won and paid $118 on a $100 wager.
AiQ's pre-game expected value calculation placed Villarreal at -2.1% EV, meaning the model liked the side but judged the price unfavorable. The market's 45% implied win probability for Villarreal versus AiQ's 46% estimate showed near-par alignment.
Napoli and Villarreal betting trends: 2026-27 season
Napoli sits at 0–0–2 (W–D–L) through two matches, with a 0–0–1 record at home and 0–0–1 away. One match featured a recorded total line, resulting in 0 overs and 1 under. The club is on a two-match losing streak.
Villarreal is 1–0–1 through two fixtures, unbeaten at home (1–0–0) with an away/neutral record of 0–0–1. Their sole recorded total line produced 1 over and 0 unders.
What's next for Napoli and Villarreal?
Napoli will host Bodo/Glimt on Tuesday, October 20. Villarreal travels to Liverpool the same day.