Manchester City vs RB Leipzig Prediction, Picks & Odds — Nov 4

Wed, Nov 4, 3:00 PM ET · Red Bull Arena · Champions League

Open the game card for live odds, every market and the full prediction.

Manchester City at RB Leipzig is on Wednesday, November 4, 2026, at Red Bull Arena.

The story

Manchester City have won 9 and lost 3 of their 12 matches this season, winning two of the last five. RB Leipzig have won 1 and lost 2 of their 3 matches this season. RB Leipzig come in with more rest: their last match was on October 21, 14 days before this one, while Manchester City played four days before.

Matchups to watch

• Mismatch in scoring. Manchester City averaged 3.00 goals per match in the league phase, tied for the 8th most in the Champions League, and RB Leipzig conceded 2.67 goals per match, tied for the 8th most.

Moneyline

AiQ gives Manchester City a 58% confidence rating to beat RB Leipzig, its own model's number rather than a market price. Calibrated against the market and graded results, that is a 62.7% chance; the betting market, with the margin removed, has 63.0%. The price on record, -180, is priced below the fair price of -168 (−2.4% value).

Total goals

AiQ gives the under 3.5 goals a 54% confidence rating, its own model's number rather than a market price. Calibrated against the market and graded results, that is a 50.4% chance; the betting market, with the margin removed, has 50.2%. The best price, -106 at BetRivers, is priced below the fair price of -102 (−2.0% value).

Trends in play

Recent totals lean under. Manchester City went under the total in 8 of their last 10 matches.

These come from the closing lines of this season and last. They are context, not the reason for AiQ's picks, and the books price them in.