Montreal Canadiens vs Toronto Maple Leafs Prediction, Picks & Odds — Nov 7
Sat, Nov 7, 7:00 PM ET · Scotiabank Arena · NHL
Open the game card for live odds, every market and the full prediction.
Montreal Canadiens at Toronto Maple Leafs is on Saturday, November 7, 2026, at Scotiabank Arena. Averaged over the outcomes the betting lines imply, the projected score is Montreal Canadiens 3, Toronto Maple Leafs 3. That is an average, not a pick.
The story
The Montreal Canadiens have won 10 of their 16 games this season, winning four of the last five. The Toronto Maple Leafs have won 8 of their 17 games this season, winning two of the last five. The Toronto Maple Leafs come in with more rest: their last game was on November 3, four days before this one, while the Montreal Canadiens played two days before. When these teams last met, on September 29, 2026, the Montreal Canadiens won 3-2 on the road. This is their second meeting this season.
Matchups to watch
- The probable starting goalies are Jacob Fowler (not yet confirmed, .925 save percentage in the 2026-27 season) for the Montreal Canadiens and Sergei Bobrovsky (not yet confirmed, .889 save percentage in the 2026-27 season) for the Toronto Maple Leafs.
- An uphill climb on the power play. The Montreal Canadiens scored on 14.0% of their power plays this season, the 3rd lowest in the NHL, and the Toronto Maple Leafs allowed opponents to score on 11.9% of their power plays, the 4th lowest.
Moneyline
The betting market, with the margin removed, gives Montreal Canadiens a 51.4% chance to beat Toronto Maple Leafs. AiQ's moneyline pick is the side the consensus favors. The price on record, -115, is priced below the fair price of -106 (−3.9% value).
Total
The betting market, with the margin removed, puts the over 6.5 goals at 51.4% and the under at 48.6%. That is near a coin flip, and AiQ's read is the market's own, so AiQ has no edge on the total. AiQ's projected total, 6.7 goals, sits on the 6.5 line.
Puck line
The betting market, with the margin removed, gives Montreal Canadiens -1.5 a 30.2% chance to cover and Toronto Maple Leafs +1.5 69.8%. AiQ's read matches the market price, so AiQ has no edge on the puck line.
Trends in play
Against the puck line, the records pull in opposite directions. The Toronto Maple Leafs covered the puck line in 6 of 6 games as underdogs this season. Meanwhile, the Montreal Canadiens failed to cover the puck line in 9 of 11 games as favorites this season. The Montreal Canadiens covered the puck line in 3 of the last 4 meetings with the Toronto Maple Leafs.
Recent totals lean over. The last 4 games involving the Montreal Canadiens went over the total.
These come from the closing lines of this season and last. They are context, not the reason for AiQ's picks, and the books price them in.