Chicago Blackhawks vs Tampa Bay Lightning Prediction, Picks & Odds — Nov 5

Thu, Nov 5, 7:00 PM ET · Benchmark International Arena · NHL

Open the game card for live odds, every market and the full prediction.

Chicago Blackhawks at Tampa Bay Lightning is on Thursday, November 5, 2026, at Benchmark International Arena. Averaged over the outcomes the betting lines imply, the projected score is Chicago Blackhawks 2, Tampa Bay Lightning 4. That is an average, not a pick.

The story

The Chicago Blackhawks have won 4 of their 15 games this season, losing the last three. The Tampa Bay Lightning have won 9 of their 14 games this season, winning two of the last five. When these teams last met, on January 23, 2026, the Tampa Bay Lightning won 2-1 on the road.

Matchups to watch

• The probable starting goalies are Arvid Soderblom (not yet confirmed, .829 save percentage in the 2026-27 season) for the Chicago Blackhawks and Andrei Vasilevskiy (not yet confirmed, .878 save percentage in the 2026-27 season) for the Tampa Bay Lightning.
• An uphill climb in shots. The Chicago Blackhawks averaged 23.1 shots on goal per game this season, the 2nd fewest in the NHL, and the Tampa Bay Lightning allowed 24.6 shots on goal per game, the 5th fewest.
• Mismatch in scoring. The Tampa Bay Lightning averaged 3.71 goals per game this season, the 4th most in the NHL, and the Chicago Blackhawks allowed 3.87 goals per game, the 2nd most.

Moneyline

The betting market, with the margin removed, gives Tampa Bay Lightning a 77.5% chance to beat Chicago Blackhawks. AiQ's moneyline pick is the side the consensus favors. The best price, -360 at BetRivers, is priced below the fair price of -344 (−1.0% value).

Total

The betting market, with the margin removed, puts the over 6.5 goals at 45.3% and the under at 54.7%. That is near a coin flip, and AiQ's read is the market's own, so AiQ has no edge on the total. AiQ's projected total, 6.3 goals, sits on the 6.5 line.

Puck line

The betting market, with the margin removed, gives Chicago Blackhawks +1.5 a 43.2% chance to cover and Tampa Bay Lightning -1.5 56.8%. AiQ's read matches the market price, so AiQ has no edge on the puck line.

Trends in play

Recent results against the puck line back the Tampa Bay Lightning. The Tampa Bay Lightning covered the puck line in 5 of 7 home games this season.

Recent totals lean under. The Tampa Bay Lightning went under the total in 5 of 7 home games this season.

These come from the closing lines of this season and last. They are context, not the reason for AiQ's picks, and the books price them in.