Tampa Bay Lightning defeat Seattle Kraken 4-3: Recap, Betting Results & AiQ Picks
Thu, Oct 15, 2026 · NHL · Seattle Kraken 3, Tampa Bay Lightning 4
Tampa Bay Lightning defeated Seattle Kraken 4-3 on Thursday. Seattle covered the +1.5 spread despite the loss, and the game went over the 6.5 total.
Seattle Kraken vs. Tampa Bay Lightning final score and game recap
The teams traded goals through regulation. Seattle scored first, but Tampa Bay answered to tie it 1-1 after one period. The Lightning took a 2-1 lead in the second, then Seattle rallied with two goals in the third to force a 3-3 tie. Tampa Bay scored the decisive goal in the fourth period to win 4-3.
Philipp Grubauer made 31 saves on 35 shots for Seattle. Andrei Vasilevskiy stopped 24 of 27 for Tampa Bay. Brandon Hagel scored twice for the Lightning; Matty Beniers scored once for the Kraken.
Who covered the spread in Seattle Kraken vs. Tampa Bay Lightning?
Seattle Kraken covered the +1.5 spread. Tampa Bay entered as a -1.5 favorite but won by only one goal, giving the underdog a cover despite the loss. The line held at Tampa Bay -1.5 from open to close.
Did Seattle Kraken vs. Tampa Bay Lightning go over or under the total?
The game went over the 6.5 total, with a combined 7 goals scored. The total opened at 5.5 and moved up to 6.5.
How did AiQ's Seattle Kraken vs. Tampa Bay Lightning predictions do?
AiQ posted a 53-30 record across all graded picks for this contest.
- Moneyline: Tampa Bay Lightning at -276 — WIN (+$36.23 on a $100 bet)
- Spread: Seattle Kraken +1.5 — WIN
- Total: Over 6.5 — WIN
- Player props: 52-30
AiQ nailed the moneyline, spread, and total.
Seattle Kraken vs. Tampa Bay Lightning player prop results
AiQ's player-prop slate finished 52-30. All 12 listed props hit the under on individual goal totals:
- Pontus Holmberg under 1.5 goals; actual 0 — WIN
- Ryan McDonagh under 1.5 goals; actual 0 — WIN
- Conor Geekie under 1.5 goals; actual 0 — WIN
- Mackie Samoskevich under 1.5 goals; actual 0 — WIN
- Zemgus Girgensons under 1.5 goals; actual 0 — WIN
- Adam Larsson under 1.5 goals; actual 0 — WIN
- Erik Cernak under 1.5 goals; actual 0 — WIN
- Joshua Mahura under 1.5 goals; actual 0 — WIN
- Ben Meyers under 1.5 goals; actual 0 — WIN
- Kaapo Kakko under 1.5 goals; actual 0 — WIN
- J.J. Moser under 1.5 goals; actual 0 — WIN
- Ryker Evans under 1.5 goals; actual 0 — WIN
Seattle Kraken vs. Tampa Bay Lightning game prop results: team totals and first period
- Tampa Bay Lightning team total 3.5: Over (paid -152); they scored 4
- First-period moneyline: tied, bets refunded
- First-period total 1.5: Over (paid -145); 2 goals scored
- Tampa Bay Lightning team total 4.5: Under (paid -196); they scored 4
- Seattle Kraken team total 3.5: Under (paid -400); they scored 3
- Seattle Kraken team total 2.5: Over (paid +104); they scored 3
Seattle Kraken vs. Tampa Bay Lightning odds: sportsbook value and line movement
The closing moneyline listed Seattle at +222 and Tampa Bay at -276, with the bookmaker's margin at 4.5%. Tampa Bay's -276 line paid $36.23 on a $100 wager when they won.
AiQ's pre-game expected value calculation placed the Lightning at -2.0% at -275, indicating the price was slightly negative-EV despite the model's confidence. The market's implied 72% win probability matched AiQ's calibrated estimate.
Seattle Kraken and Tampa Bay Lightning betting trends: 2026-27 season
Seattle Kraken sit at 5-3 overall after eight games, with a 1-1 home record and 4-2 on the road. In seven games with a recorded closing spread, they are 5-2 against the spread. Their seven total-line games yielded five overs and two unders. The Kraken's last five results: L, W, W, W, L.
Tampa Bay Lightning are 5-2 in seven games, unbeaten at home (4-0) but 1-2 away or neutral. In seven spread-recorded contests they are 3-4 against the spread. Their total-line record stands at three overs and four unders over the same seven games. The Lightning's recent five results: W, L, W, W, W.
What's next for Seattle Kraken and Tampa Bay Lightning?
Seattle hosts Detroit Red Wings on Tuesday, October 20. Tampa Bay travels to Las Vegas to face the Golden Knights on the same night.