Buffalo Sabres defeat Toronto Maple Leafs 5-4: Recap, Betting Results & AiQ Picks
Thu, Oct 15, 2026 · NHL · Buffalo Sabres 5, Toronto Maple Leafs 4
Buffalo Sabres defeated Toronto Maple Leafs 5-4 on Thursday, October 15 at Scotiabank Arena, covering the +1.5 spread and the total went over 6.5.
Buffalo Sabres vs. Toronto Maple Leafs final score and game recap
The Sabres erased a two-goal deficit to win in regulation. Toronto scored twice in the first period and twice more in the second to build a 4-2 lead. Buffalo answered with two goals in the third to tie at 4-4, then scored the go-ahead goal in the fourth period for the 5-4 victory.
Jack Quinn led Buffalo with two goals and two assists. Mattias Samuelsson added a goal and an assist. For Toronto, Kirill Marchenko scored three goals, and Sergei Bobrovsky made 29 saves on 34 shots.
Who covered the spread in Buffalo Sabres vs. Toronto Maple Leafs?
Buffalo Sabres covered the spread at +1.5. The line held steady at Toronto -1.5 from open to close. Buffalo's one-goal win meant the underdog both covered and won outright.
Did Buffalo Sabres vs. Toronto Maple Leafs go over or under the total?
The game went over the 6.5 total, finishing with nine goals—a 2.5-goal overage.
How did AiQ's Buffalo Sabres vs. Toronto Maple Leafs predictions do?
AiQ finished 55-36 across all graded picks.
- Moneyline: AiQ took Toronto Maple Leafs at -121 and lost.
- Spread: AiQ's pick of Buffalo Sabres +1.5 covered.
- Total: AiQ's over pick hit.
- Player props: AiQ recorded 55-35.
AiQ correctly identified the spread and total but backed the moneyline favorite who failed to win.
Buffalo Sabres vs. Toronto Maple Leafs player prop results
AiQ's player prop slate went 55-35, with 11 props listed below and 78 additional picks included in the record:
- Owen Power under 1.5 goals; actual 1 — WIN
- Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen under 25.5 saves at -120; actual 26 — LOSS
- Zach Benson under 1.5 goals; actual 0 — WIN
- Noah Ostlund under 1.5 goals; actual 0 — WIN
- Konsta Helenius under 1.5 goals; actual 0 — WIN
- Teddy Blueger under 1.5 goals; actual 0 — WIN
- Ryan McLeod under 1.5 goals; actual 0 — WIN
- Zach Metsa under 1.5 goals; actual 0 — WIN
- Louis Crevier under 1.5 goals; actual 0 — WIN
- Peyton Krebs under 1.5 goals; actual 0 — WIN
- Beck Malenstyn under 1.5 goals; actual 0 — WIN
- Josh Norris under 1.5 goals; actual 0 — WIN
The slate was dominated by under hits, with only Luukkonen's save total exceeding its line.
Buffalo Sabres vs. Toronto Maple Leafs game prop results: first period and team totals
- First-period moneyline: Toronto Maple Leafs won the opening period (paid -116).
- First-period total 1.5: Over, with three goals scored (paid -175).
- Toronto Maple Leafs team total 2.5: Over, as they finished with four goals (paid -230).
- Buffalo Sabres team total 2.5: Over, as they posted five goals (paid -215).
Buffalo Sabres vs. Toronto Maple Leafs odds: sportsbook value and line movement
The closing moneyline was Buffalo Sabres +101 and Toronto Maple Leafs -121, implying win probabilities of 48% and 52% after removing the 4.5% vig. The Sabres' upset victory paid +101 on a $100 wager. AiQ's pre-game moneyline expected value was -3.5% at -118; the model liked the side but not the price. The closing spread remained unchanged from open.
Buffalo Sabres and Toronto Maple Leafs betting trends: 2026-27 season
Buffalo Sabres sit 4-4 overall. At home they are 3-2; on the road, 1-2. In five games with a recorded closing spread they are 2-3 against the spread. In five games with a recorded total they are 3-2 over/under. Their last five results: W, L, W, L, L.
Toronto Maple Leafs are 3-5 overall. At home they are 2-3; away/neutral, 1-2. In seven games with a recorded closing spread they are 3-4 against the spread. In seven games with a recorded total they are 5-2 over/under. Their last five results: L, L, W, L, W. They are on a two-game losing streak.
What's next for Buffalo Sabres and Toronto Maple Leafs?
The Sabres host the Philadelphia Flyers on Wednesday, October 21. The Maple Leafs travel to face the Columbus Blue Jackets on Tuesday, October 20.