Tampa Bay Lightning defeat New York Islanders 5-3: Recap, Betting Results & AiQ Picks
Sat, Oct 10, 2026 · NHL · Tampa Bay Lightning 5, New York Islanders 3
Tampa Bay Lightning defeated New York Islanders 5–3 at UBS Arena on Saturday, October 10, covering the -1.5 spread and going over 5.5 with eight combined goals.
Tampa Bay Lightning vs. New York Islanders final score and game recap
The Lightning controlled the first period, building a 2–0 lead before the Islanders scored three goals in the second period while Tampa Bay added one to tie it 3–3. Tampa Bay regained the edge in the third, adding two more goals to seal the win. Brandon Hagel led the offensive charge with three goals and an assist. Jake Guentzel contributed two goals. For New York, Tony DeAngelo scored and assisted, while goaltender Ilya Sorokin made 21 saves on 25 shots.
Who covered the spread in Tampa Bay Lightning vs. New York Islanders?
Tampa Bay Lightning covered as -1.5 favorites, winning by two goals. The spread held steady at -1.5 throughout the game.
Did Tampa Bay Lightning vs. New York Islanders go over or under the total?
The game went over 5.5, finishing with eight goals—2.5 goals above the closing total.
How did AiQ's Tampa Bay Lightning vs. New York Islanders predictions do?
AiQ finished 51–24 across all graded picks.
- Moneyline: Tampa Bay Lightning at -180 – WIN (+$55.56 on a $100 bet)
- Spread: Tampa Bay Lightning -1.5 – WIN
- Total: Over 5.5 – WIN
- Player props: 50–24
All three core picks hit. The player-prop slate went 50–24, with only one miss.
Tampa Bay Lightning vs. New York Islanders player prop results
AiQ's player-prop slate went 50–24. Of the 12 listed props, 11 won:
- Jean-Gabriel Pageau under 1.5 goals – actual 0 – WIN
- Anthony Cirelli under 1.5 goals – actual 0 – WIN
- Jake Guentzel under 1.5 goals – actual 2 – LOSS
- Victor Eklund under 1.5 goals – actual 0 – WIN
- Victor Hedman under 1.5 goals – actual 0 – WIN
- J.J. Moser under 1.5 goals – actual 0 – WIN
- Ondrej Palat under 1.5 goals – actual 0 – WIN
- Matthew Schaefer under 1.5 goals – actual 1 – WIN
- Nikita Kucherov under 1.5 goals – actual 0 – WIN
- Calum Ritchie under 1.5 goals – actual 0 – WIN
- Brayden Point under 1.5 goals – actual 0 – WIN
- Andrei Vasilevskiy under 23.5 total saves at -130 – actual 20 – WIN
Guentzel's two-goal performance was the lone miss. The under bias held across the slate.
Tampa Bay Lightning vs. New York Islanders game prop results: team totals and first period
- New York Islanders team total 3.5: Under (paid -330); they scored 3
- First-period total 1.5: Over (paid -120); two goals scored
- First-period moneyline: Tampa Bay Lightning won the first period (paid -164)
- New York Islanders team total 2.5: Over (paid +100); they scored 3
- Tampa Bay Lightning team total 2.5: Over (paid -225); they scored 5
Tampa Bay Lightning vs. New York Islanders odds: sportsbook value and line movement
The Lightning closed at -180, implying a 62% win probability after removing the 4.4% vig. The Islanders sat at +149, or 38%. A $100 wager on Tampa Bay at -180 returned $55.56 profit. AiQ's internal estimate also calibrated to 62%, matching the market. However, AiQ's best available price was -167, which carried -0.8% expected value—a slight underlay despite the correct side selection.
Tampa Bay Lightning and New York Islanders betting trends: 2026-27 season
Tampa Bay Lightning are 4–1 overall, 3–0 at home and 1–1 away. They sit 3–2 against the spread in five games with a recorded closing line and 2–3 on the over-under. They have won four straight.
New York Islanders are 2–3 overall, 2–1 at home and 0–2 away. They sit 3–2 against the spread in five games with a recorded closing line and 3–2 on the over-under. They have alternated wins and losses over their last five games.
What's next for Tampa Bay Lightning and New York Islanders?
The Lightning travel to Las Vegas to face the Golden Knights on Tuesday, October 20. The Islanders host the Anaheim Ducks the same day.