Toronto Maple Leafs defeat Colorado Avalanche 6-3: Recap, Betting Results & AiQ Picks
Sat, Oct 10, 2026 · NHL · Toronto Maple Leafs 6, Colorado Avalanche 3
Toronto Maple Leafs defeated Colorado Avalanche 6–3 on Saturday at Ball Arena, covering the +1.5 spread and the total went over 6.5.
Toronto Maple Leafs vs. Colorado Avalanche final score and game recap
Colorado led 2-1 after the first period, then Toronto scored three goals in the second period to take a 4-3 advantage. William Nylander recorded 2 goals and 3 assists, while Auston Matthews added 2 goals and 2 assists. Nathan MacKinnon scored twice for Colorado; Brock Nelson added one.
Who covered the spread in Toronto Maple Leafs vs. Colorado Avalanche?
Toronto Maple Leafs covered as +1.5 underdogs, winning by three goals. The spread remained at Colorado Avalanche –1.5 from open to close.
Did Toronto Maple Leafs vs. Colorado Avalanche go over or under the total?
The game went over 6.5, finishing with 9 combined goals. The over won by 2.5.
How did AiQ's Toronto Maple Leafs vs. Colorado Avalanche predictions do?
AiQ finished 60–36 across all graded picks.
- Moneyline: Colorado Avalanche at –219 — LOSS.
- Spread: Toronto Maple Leafs +1.5 — WIN.
- Total: Over 6.5 — WIN.
- Player props: 60–35 record.
AiQ's moneyline pick represented negative expected value (–2.1% at the –215 best price at FanDuel), despite a calibrated win probability of 67% matching the market's implied probability. The spread and total aligned with AiQ's positioning.
Toronto Maple Leafs vs. Colorado Avalanche player prop results
AiQ's player prop record stood at 60–35. Most under-1.5 lines held, with two exceptions:
- Auston Matthews under 1.5 goals — actual 2 — LOSS.
- William Nylander under 1.5 goals — actual 2 — LOSS.
All other listed props won, including Teddy Blueger, Morgan Rielly, Brandon Duhaime, Easton Cowan, Nick Paul, Gavin McKenna, Jack Roslovic, Darren Raddysh, Bo Groulx, and Colton Sissons, each at under 1.5 goals with 0 actual goals. Eighty-three additional player prop picks were included in the 60–35 record.
Toronto Maple Leafs vs. Colorado Avalanche game prop results: team totals and first period
- Toronto Maple Leafs team total 3.5: Over (paid +194); they scored 6.
- Colorado Avalanche team total 3.5: Under (paid +128); they scored 3.
- First-period moneyline: Colorado Avalanche won the first period (paid –180).
- First-period total 1.5: Over (paid –166); 3 goals scored.
Toronto Maple Leafs vs. Colorado Avalanche odds: sportsbook value and line movement
The moneyline closed with Toronto Maple Leafs at +180 and Colorado Avalanche at –219. After vig removal, the sportsbook implied a 34% win probability for Toronto and 66% for Colorado, with a 4.4% bookmaker margin. A $100 wager on Toronto's upset paid $180 profit. The spread remained at Colorado Avalanche –1.5 from open to close.
Toronto Maple Leafs and Colorado Avalanche betting trends: 2026-27 season
Toronto Maple Leafs stand 3–3 overall through six games, with a 2–3 record against the spread in five games with a recorded closing line and 3–2 over/under in five games with a recorded total. Their last five results: W, L, W, L, W.
Colorado Avalanche are 3–2 overall through five games, 3–2 against the spread in five games with a recorded closing line, and 4–1 over/under in five games with a recorded total. Their last five results: L, W, L, W, W.
What's next for Toronto Maple Leafs and Colorado Avalanche?
Toronto travels to Columbus to face the Blue Jackets on Tuesday, October 20. Colorado visits New Jersey for a matchup with the Devils the same night.