Celta Vigo defeat Alavés 2-1: Match Recap, Betting Results & AiQ Picks
Sun, Oct 18, 2026 · La Liga · Alavés 1, Celta Vigo 2
Celta Vigo defeated Alavés 2-1 on Sunday, October 18 at Balaídos. The match went over the 2-goal total, finishing with three goals. AiQ went 0-3 on the fixture, missing both the result and the scoring volume.
Alavés vs. Celta Vigo final score and match recap
Celta Vigo scored twice in the second half while Alavés scored once, proving decisive. The first half ended scoreless; Alavés pulled one back in the second period but could not equalize. Hugo Novoa scored for Alavés, assisted by Mariano Díaz. Javi Rodríguez contributed a goal and an assist for Celta Vigo, while Ferran Jutglà added the second.
Did Alavés vs. Celta Vigo go over or under the goals total?
The match produced three goals, one more than the 2-goal total. AiQ had taken the Under 2 at 52% confidence and lost.
How did AiQ's Alavés vs. Celta Vigo predictions do?
AiQ finished 0-3 on this fixture:
- Moneyline: Draw at +203 – loss, -$100 on a $100 bet
- Total: Under 2 – loss
- Player props: 0-1 – loss, -$100 on a $100 bet
The model backed a draw that did not materialize and underestimated second-half scoring.
Alavés vs. Celta Vigo player prop results
AiQ's single player prop lost:
- Ville Koski (Alavés) over 0.5 shots on target at +500; actual: 0 – loss
Record: 0-1, net -$100.
Alavés vs. Celta Vigo game prop results: draw no bet and both teams to score
- Draw no bet: Celta Vigo cashed at -190
- Both teams to score: Yes at +105
Alavés vs. Celta Vigo odds: sportsbook value and line movement
The three-way moneyline was Alavés +265, Draw +203, Celta Vigo +120. After vig removal, implied probabilities were Alavés 26%, Celta Vigo 43%, and Draw 31%, with a bookmaker margin of 5.9%. Celta Vigo, the favorite, won and paid $120 on a $100 stake.
AiQ valued the draw at +210, implying 31% versus its calibrated 33% estimate. The pick offered +1.2% expected value before kickoff—a positive-EV wager regardless of outcome.
Alavés and Celta Vigo betting trends: 2026-27 season
Alavés enters their next match at 3-2-4 through nine games. At home they are 3-0-2; away they are 0-2-2. In seven matches with a recorded total, they hit the over three times and the under four times. Their last five results: L, L, D, L, L—extending a two-game losing streak.
Celta Vigo stands 2-5-2 after nine outings, with a home record of 2-1-2 and an away record of 0-4-0. Their seven total-line games also split three overs and four unders. Recent form reads W, D, W, D, D.
What's next for Alavés and Celta Vigo?
Alavés will host Málaga on Friday, October 23. Celta Vigo returns to Balaídos to welcome Real Betis on Sunday, October 25.